US President Donald Trump last week said on Friday (November 14) that he is pondering a deal to supply Saudi Arabia with F-35 stealth fighter jets, which are made by Lockheed Martin. The potential sale comes at a time when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will meet Trump at the White House this week, when they are expected to sign economic and defence agreements.
Asked about the talks, Trump told reporters it was “more than meeting, we’re honouring” Saudi Arabia. He repeated that he hoped Saudi would soon join the Abraham Accords, which have normalised relations between Israel and Muslim-majority middle-eastern nations. Riyadh has resisted such a step in absence of an agreement on a roadmap to Palestinian statehood.
However, this potential sale has raised concerns on two counts, first from the government and opposition in Israel, as it would change the military balance in the region and affect the Israeli military’s qualitative military edge (QME), and moreover Israel feels that it may not get any immediate diplomatic result from the sale.
Further, concern has also been expressed about the leakage of the American technology to China and even Turkiye. A Pentagon intelligence report says that China could acquire the aircraft’s technology if the sale proceeds, the New York Times reported, citing people familiar with the assessment.
The potential sale of F-35 to Saudi Arabia has raised concerns on two counts, first from the government and opposition in Israel, as it would change the military balance in the region and affect the Israeli military’s qualitative military edge (QME), and moreover Israel feels that it may not get any immediate diplomatic result from the sale
Israel’s Stance
However, Israel per se does not oppose the US selling F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, but wants it be conditioned on the kingdom normalising its relations with the Jewish state. Reportedly, some Israeli officials say that the US giving Saudi Arabia F-35s without getting any diplomatic deliverables in return would be “a mistake and counterproductive.”
Also, maintaining Israel’s QME in the region is part of longstanding understandings between Israel and several Republican and Democratic administrations over the last few decades. Congress officially codified the US commitment to Israel’s QME into law in 2008.
Earlier, as part of the Abraham Accords in 2020, Israel agreed to the US supplying F-35 jets to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), subject to several security guarantees. The deal never materialised due to the Biden administration’s demand to restrict the use of the jets.
Opposition Leader Yair Lapid lashes out against the government’s “weakness,” following media reports that Israel does not object to the United States supplying Saudi Arabia with F-35 stealth fighter jets.
“As someone who participated in dozens of discussions on a normalisation arrangement with Saudi Arabia, an F-35 deal was never part of a normalisation agreement, because it was clear that Israel’s security requires maintaining its qualitative military edge,” Lapid said, Times of Israel reported.
Concern has also been expressed about the leakage of the American technology to China and even Turkiye. A Pentagon intelligence report says that China could acquire the aircraft’s technology if the sale proceeds, the New York Times reported, citing people familiar with the assessment
Israel’s concerns about security stems from the fact that any F‑35 taking off from the military airfield on the Red Sea coast need not penetrate Israel’s air‑defence arrays at all. They would be able to launch precision glided bombs and US air‑to‑surface missiles — whose ranges exceed 100 km.
Moreover, the advanced radars and other autonomous capabilities of the F‑35 turn these aircraft into flying systems of warning, intelligence collection, command and control, and interception. Through them, the Saudis could monitor every movement of Israeli aircraft, UAVs and cruise missiles, not only in the Red Sea arena but from the north and northeast of Israel.
This would significantly reduce the Israeli Air Force’s ability to gather intelligence and strike with concealment and surprise across the Middle East, for instance in Iran, the Red Sea, and the Indian Ocean.
However, Israel per se does not oppose the US selling F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, but wants it be conditioned on the kingdom normalising its relations with the Jewish state. Reportedly, some Israeli officials say that the US giving Saudi Arabia F-35s without getting any diplomatic deliverables in return would be “a mistake and counterproductive.”
Nonetheless, the F‑35 the US will sell to Saudi Arabia will likely differ in many details and important capabilities from those in Israel’s “Adir” model. Even if Saudi Arabia receives the latest model of the fighter jet (Block 4), it will not include the improvements, avionics, and electronics that Israel has installed.
For example, unique, long‑range and extremely precise munitions that, according to foreign reports, were developed or adapted for the Adir by Israeli defence industries. Or conformal fuel tanks, which, according to reports, were installed onboard to allow the jet to extend its flight range without air‑refuelling by about 30 % (depending on how much weaponry it carries) and hit targets in Iran.
In addition, Israel’s defence industries have inserted electronic warfare systems, intelligence‑gathering capabilities and encrypted sharing with other aircraft and UAVs, some of which do not exist in the American F‑35s (or if they do, they are in an export version which does not include the features in the Israeli Air Force or US Navy variants).
Nonetheless, the F‑35 the US will sell to Saudi Arabia will likely differ in many details and important capabilities from those in Israel’s “Adir” model. Even if Saudi Arabia receives the latest model of the fighter jet (Block 4), it will not include the improvements, avionics, and electronics that Israel has installed
But Israel’s main qualitative advantage lies in the fact that its air force knows the aircraft and its radar signature very well across different flight profiles, and thus knows its weaknesses. It can exploit them if required. During the war, the operational methods of the F‑35 in defence and strike were tested and improved, and maintenance procedures refined. Israel is the only country in the world that maintains its F‑35s comprehensively, even under fire.
And finally, if Saudi Arabia does flip and becomes a hostile actor, Israel would retain the capability to destroy those aircraft on the ground before they are used against it — provided, of course, it is alert and not bound up in complacent assumptions.
Concerns about China
Meanwhile, a US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) report warned that the deal could allow China and maybe even Turkiye to collect vital intel on the advanced jet’s highly classified inner workings, sources with knowledge of the assessment told the New York Times. Saudi Arabia is a defence partner with China, with Beijing helping the House of Saud build its own ballistic missile arsenal in past years.
A US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) report warned that the deal could allow China and maybe even Turkiye to collect vital intel on the advanced jet’s highly classified inner workings, sources with knowledge of the assessment told the New York Times. Saudi Arabia is a defence partner with China, with Beijing helping the House of Saud build its own ballistic missile arsenal in past years
The DIA warns China could obtain sensitive F-35 intel through that relationship with the Saudis if the US deal goes through. China has a long history of stealing American defence and civilian technology via espionage or attempting to copy American designs. US officials are also discussing whether or not to place safeguards on the classified portions of the aircraft in the sale, according to the NYT.
Overall, going by Trump’s track record of decisions, he may prefer to ignore all these objections, as he seems more focussed on getting the Saudi money to infuse the American economy, and also increase the American influence in the region, which has lessened during recent times.
-The writer is a New Delhi-based senior commentator on international and strategic affairs, environmental issues, an interfaith practitioner, and a media consultant. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily carry the views of Raksha Anirveda
