The period was so far like the present period that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only – A Tale of Two Cities, Charles Dickens.
When American historians sift through the chaotic times of the 2020s and attempt to identify the events culminating in a drastically altered world order, they may point to 5th November 2024 as a critical marker. In what has been termed a historic comeback, Donald J Trump, the 45th President of the United States, became the first President since 1893 to earn a non-consecutive second term. Trump brushed aside multiple issues to secure a resounding victory.
Trump’s boast of a convincing mandate is difficult to deny: the Republicans flipped the Senate and the House of Representatives. A ‘unified government’ is significant but not uncommon; the US has seen 58 such governments since 1857. Nevertheless, Trump and his supporters could not dream of a better election outcome. Speculation about his policies has reached a fever pitch. What might Trump 2.0 mean for the fate of Ukraine and American membership in NATO, and for India?
The geopolitical environment Trump inherits possesses plenty of carryover from his previous term but with added complexity that makes some miss the comparatively simple structure of the Cold War. The ill-conceived and -executed US exit from Afghanistan; the internal situation in Bangladesh; the conflicts between China and its neighbours; Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran; and the introduction of North Korean military forces in Ukraine join an already crowded world stage brimming with hotspots in competition, crisis or conflict. Collectively, overarching themes point to the inability of the US to decisively influence geopolitical events and prevent a fragmenting rules-based international order.
American ‘red lines’ simply are not what they used to be. A growing chorus sounding the alarm on a declining American Empire buttresses these sentiments. Add an incoming President described as a ‘megalomaniac’ more eager to glad-hand with Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán and Kim Jong Un than cooperate with Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelensky, and the result could be an explosive mixture capable of fundamentally altering the geopolitical world as we know it.
Concerned parties throughout Europe now cast a nervous gaze at Washington in anticipation of US foreign policy toward the Ukraine conflict and NATO. For better or worse, Trump 2.0 is upon us. While difficult to predict, signs are emerging that hint towards Trump’s policies beginning on 20th January 2025.
The geopolitical environment Trump inherits possesses plenty of carryover from his previous term but with added complexity that makes some miss the comparatively simple structure of the Cold War
Donald J. Trump: The Candidate and President-Elect
That is a war that’s dying to be settled. I will get it settled before I even become President
– Donald J. Trump on the war in Ukraine.
First and foremost, Trump often follows through on campaign promises. During the campaign as well as in his first major speech since winning the election, he claimed he could end the conflict in Ukraine quickly and seems poised to revisit his first-term criticisms of NATO.
Zelensky also believes with Trump as President the war in Ukraine would end faster. Perhaps he has resigned himself to Ukraine not receiving military aid from Trump and therefore this belief?
Trump’s Ukraine policy is one of the positives for New Delhi. India too has always had the same opinion as Zelensky, voicing it just ahead of the Ukrainian President. Trump threatened to pull the US out of NATO during his first presidency and in the run-up to the recent election. NATO could take preemptive steps regarding this before he is sworn in.
The Biden Administration has proactively addressed this issue regarding NATO, recently signing a revised cost-sharing agreement with the South Korean Government to ‘Trump-proof’ the US presence on the Korean Peninsula.
Such efforts offer a blueprint for NATO in the Russia-Ukraine context. While time is short, there remains some time to put in place a safeguard that deters draconian actions by the incoming President.
Trump has used and will continue to use aggressive negotiating tactics as a capitalist and for pure American self-interest, but he is unlikely to renege on the Biden Administration’s recent cost-sharing agreement with Seoul.
Indian Prime Minister Modi, having just begun his second consecutive term, is also considered a shrewd businessman like Trump. If New Delhi had taken Trump’s bluster in his first administration lightly, New Delhi will certainly not repeat it, especially as Modi considers him a canny operator. After all, like recognises – even admires – like.
Concerned parties throughout Europe now cast a nervous gaze at Washington in anticipation of US foreign policy toward the Ukraine conflict and NATO
Donald J. Trump: The President
I do not know any country where, in general, less independence of mind and genuine freedom of discussion reign than in America – Democracy in America, Alexis de Tocqueville.
Armed with a strong mandate, Trump will be a formidable force to friend and foe alike. But he assumes the presidency facing alarming foundational issues. Growing internal division in America stands to increase.
There remain over 70 million voters who did not vote for Trump after a vitriolic campaign that further divided American society. While one could point to a near-record turnout in the 2024 election, one out of every three eligible voters did not cast their ballot. In relative terms, 2024 was a sign of an engaged populace. In absolute terms, that positive sentiment is significantly diminished.
While Trump showed his ability while campaigning, to relate to the working-class through his cult of personality, these efforts fall flat in the face of the uncaring and immutable laws of economics.
Zelensky also believes with Trump as President the war in Ukraine would end faster. Perhaps he has resigned himself to Ukraine not receiving military aid from Trump and therefore this belief?
With Trump having called India a ‘tariff-abuser’, New Delhi is incensed with his extremely aggressive position of imposing a 20% rate for Indian exports to the US. Experts believe these tariffs are likely to be directed towards the Indian automobiles, textiles and pharmaceuticals industry.
This could be a potential factor in New Delhi’s decision-making calculus to export active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and embrace Chinese plans for foreign direct investment (FDI) in India.
But trade ties between New Delhi and Washington continue to flourish. It would be prudent to watch Trump’s first few months to see if he changes his stance on tariffs before considering the signpost well and truly marked.
Trump showed his ability while campaigning to relate to the working-class through his cult of personality. These efforts fall flat in the face of the uncaring and immutable laws of economics if he implements tariffs on all imports.
The Biden Administration has proactively addressed this issue regarding NATO, recently signing a revised cost-sharing agreement with the South Korean Government to ‘Trump-proof’ the US presence on the Korean Peninsula
The tariffs are likely to increase inflation in the short-term, especially with the current US federal debt at nearly $36 trillion, and potentially averaging $2 trillion from 2024 to 2033.
These developments further open the door for the current BRICS challenges to the primacy of the US dollar, a possibility considered by former Secretary of Defence James Mattis as a grave threat to national security. Such a challenge could rob US foreign policy of one of its most effective tools: sanctions.
It might also limit the ability of the US Government to fund its commitments domestically and abroad. India has always understood the plight of countries targeted by unilateral American sanctions, with other states questioning the effectiveness, whether the state in question is Russia, Iran, North Korea or China.
President Trump: Through to the Midterms
No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills – Donald Trump when asked about protecting NATO allies from Russian aggression.
In the near term, hints of Trump’s policy toward Ukraine are already being socialised and disseminated for media consumption. Ukrainian aspirations to regain its territory run headlong into Trumpian declarations that Crimea is ‘gone’, and President Zelensky must present a ‘realistic vision of peace’ that might involve the ceding of the Donbas to Russia.
With Trump’s stated concerns about funding the Ukraine war effort coupled with his relationship with President Putin, both Ukraine and NATO would be wise to temper expectations of robust US support lasting deep into 2025.
New Delhi is hopeful of Trump’s strategy on Russia-Ukraine for two key reasons. The first is Trump has, does and will not question India’s friendship with the Kremlin. And secondly, both Modi and Trump are on the same page when it comes to ending hostilities soon in Ukraine.
Indian Prime Minister Modi, having just begun his second consecutive term, is also considered a shrewd businessman like Trump. If New Delhi had taken Trump’s bluster in his first administration lightly, New Delhi will certainly not repeat it
However, alternate options exist. With a combined GDP rivalling that of America, the NATO countries could offset the loss of American aid. In effect, NATO support to Ukraine without American assistance could be a litmus test for NATO resolve and provide a template for the way forward free of political turmoil from across the pond.
The task becomes more problematic with the arrival of North Korean soldiers in Kursk, which most likely lengthens the war. While NATO could argue to Trump that a secure and NATO-friendly Ukraine could provide the Alliance with a bulwark against Russia for years to come, such a rationale might be too much of a long-term perspective for a politician seeking to make a short-term splash by achieving a campaign goal.
Therefore, the Trump Administration’s senior leadership of the National Security Council, Department of Defence and Intelligence Community need to be convinced first and then the Commander-in-Chief to ensure policy continuity. But then, there is the dilemma of new appointees with each new presidential administration.
However, NATO’s options are limited, and it may have to suffer what it must now, with the hope that drastic increases in non-US funding in the near-term will prevent Ukrainian capitulation and cement long-term NATO solidarity and strength amongst its European members.
The overall US-NATO relationship outside the Ukraine question is also undoubtedly entering a turbulent period. All signs point to the Trump administration driving a tough bargain with Brussels.
The Alliance is beholden to America for its military might, especially its nuclear triad that provides an unmatched deterrence. It is a different Europe without the spectre of American conventional capacity and nuclear reach.
With Trump having called India a ‘tariff-abuser’, New Delhi is incensed with his extremely aggressive position of imposing a 20% rate for Indian exports to the US. Experts believe these tariffs are likely to be directed towards the Indian automobiles, textiles and pharmaceuticals industry
However, ‘Trump the Transactionalist’ remains a salesman eager to strike a deal. In search of an agreement, NATO must also consider the extended nuclear deterrence America provides to the Alliance as immutable, even if considerable concessions must be made.
These factors point toward a rocky road ahead. While a problematic position for NATO now, weaning itself off American support insulates it from further political vacillation in America going forward.
Post-Trump: The End Game
The end is inevitable, Maverick. Your kind is destined for extinction – Rear Admiral Chester Cain in the motion picture Top Gun: Maverick.
The sun is setting on the American Empire; limitations on its hegemony are visible. One could see that America is further along in its ‘empire afterglow’ than many think. Thus, Trump 2.0 might eventually be a needed forcing mechanism that allows NATO to address a diminished America preemptively.
In the near term, Brussels, Kyiv and New Delhi would be wiser to review the lessons of Trump’s first presidency as well as let the dust settle. Trump has many critical issues to address aside from Brussels, Kyiv and New Delhi.
The ‘unified government’ might be threatened; the fringes of the Republican Party can become a moderating force on the President. Knowing Trump’s transactional nature offers insight into his decision-making calculus and makes his unpredictability more comprehensible; Brussels, Kyiv and New Delhi should heed his rhetoric.
This begs the question again: is it Trump’s ploy to keep the world guessing (including his own staff) to ensure states do not stray too much from Washington’s line?
Furthermore, while the American star is fading – so is the Russian one – which has taken a physical and reputational battering in Ukraine. Moscow will also inevitably face a leadership transition when President Putin, either by the sword or the inevitable slow decay of time, is no longer Russia’s de facto leader.
The view in New Delhi is that given the historical predictability of the erstwhile Soviet Union/Russia’s leadership, it is much better to have Putin in power as a known quantity rather than have an unknown personality at the helm
That the Siloviki will have a candidate with the gravitas, revisionist dreams, and unifying power of Putin seems unlikely. From the NATO perspective, the sending-off of an implacable, personality-driven foe might offset the diminishment of an indispensable ally.
The view in New Delhi is that given the historical predictability of the erstwhile Soviet Union/Russia’s leadership, it is much better to have Putin in power as a known quantity rather than have an unknown personality at the helm, according to Dr. Raj Kumar Sharma, Senior Research Fellow at NatStrat.
Nevertheless, the sooner NATO embraces the concept of the Alliance without its most critical member, the wiser. Best to have well-rehearsed contingencies in place while hoping the day to employ them remains a hypothetical.
The day will come when America and Russia, beset by domestic issues and foreign over-extension, become aged and diminished heavyweight boxers, lurking but less ominous in the background, still capable of a knockout nuclear punch but well aware their best days are behind them.
Beijing is cognisant of this and has been working towards both closing and widening the gap with Washington in all strategic fields; it is now time for New Delhi to speed up the same while not overstretching itself.
Major Rocco P. Santurri III is a US Army reservist with the United States Civil Affairs and Psychological Operations Command. He is a published author and contributes regularly to the Center for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research, the British Army’s think tank, as well as several other publications. His views are his own and do not represent the United States Government or his current or past employers. He can be found at https://www.linkedin.com/in/RoccoPSanturri3/
Siddhant Hira is a 2024 Non-resident Fellow at the Irregular Warfare Initiative and contributes for Indian and international platforms. He has also discussed India-Taiwan relations on Taiwanese national radio.
