On January 14, 2024, Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s Principal Secretary (Public Policy) Abdullah Nazim Ibrahim demanded that Indian military personnel leave the Maldives by March 15. This demand, which aggravates the recently strained Indo-Maldives relationship, comes in the wake of three developments, viz, (i) the elevation of perceived pro-China Dr Muizzu as President; (ii) remarks critical of India/Indians by three junior Maldivian ministers; this, in turn, had triggered brutal social media retaliation seeking a boycott of tourism to the Maldives; and (iii) Dr Muizzu’s five-day state visit to the Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC), where both sides agreed to ‘elevate’ strategic ties.

Dr Muizzu was elected the President of the Maldives in September 2023 after defeating the then President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). Although Mohamed Solih was pro-India, he had yet ‘discouraged’ any official criticism of China for the sake of the economy. Dr Muizzu’s Progressive Alliance is the coalition of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and the People’s National Congress (PNC). Earlier, both the PNC and PPM were led by former President Abdulla Yameen. Now, the PPM is headed by Yameen while Dr Muizzu is the leader of the PNC. Two other minor partners, the Maldives National Party (MNP) and the Maldives Development Alliance (MDA) had joined the Progressive Alliance after sensing the alliance was headed for victory.

Dr Muizzu is a protege of former President Abdulla Yameen and is a strong proponent of stronger ties with the PRC. Abdulla Yameen had, as president, guided the Maldives towards Beijing, and the archipelago had thus benefitted from China’s Belt & Road (BRI) programme. As mayor of the capital Male, Dr Muizzu steered the US$ 200 million China-Maldives ‘friendship’ bridge linking Male with the country’s main airport. In 2022, during an online meeting with members of the Chinese Communist Party, Dr Muizzu stated that a return to power of his party would “script a further chapter of strong ties between our two countries”. In August 2023, he marked the fifth anniversary of the ‘friendship’ bridge by praising the “visionary leadership” of his patron Yameen and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The elevation of Dr Muizzu to President therefore had set off talk about his government adopting an abrasive anti-India and pliant pro-China stance. Now, although it seems to be turning into a self-fulfilling prophecy, how concerned should India be?

The World Bank has, in its recent ‘In the Maldives Development Update – Batten Down the Hatches’, stated that “Maldives economic growth will slow down in the next two years and the financial challenges will be greater if the country continues to borrow at high costs amid the global economic slowdown”

Geopolitical Aspects

Geography:  The Maldives, Asia’s smallest country, is an archipelago of about 1,190 islands (200 inhabited islands, 164 developed as tourist resorts) grouped into 26 atolls. Located astride the Equator, the archipelago, spread across 90,000 sq km and with an east-west width of 130 km at its widest, has a total land area of a mere 298 sq km. The nearest neighbours of the Maldives are India, about 700 km to its northeast, and Sri Lanka, about 800 km to its east. Other important countries are – Pakistan, 2,500 km to its north; Oman, 2,400 km to its northwest; and Somalia, 2,600 km to its east. In sum: with Pakistan and Sri Lanka being economically impoverished, Oman far away, and Somalia both economically beset and distant, India is the most important country for the Maldives.

Climate Change:  The country is low-lying, with the island heights varying from 0.5 metres to 1.4 metres. Some islands also have sand dunes of up to 2.4 metres. Experts opine that on account of climate change and rising sea levels, about 80 per cent of the Maldives will cease to exist by 2050. The Maldives are therefore expected to generate an incremental number of ‘climate refugees’ in the future.

Demography:  The Maldives has a youth profile. Out of an estimated population of 515,122 (approximately 26 per cent of the population are foreigners), ¹ about 26 per cent are between 0-14 years of age, 69 per cent are between the ages of 15-64 years, and just 5 per cent are above 65 years.² It has a fertility rate of 1.666,³ which is well below the population replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman. Overall, it means that if the Maldives wants to maintain the numbers for a working population, then, it has to allow foreigners in.

Economy: The economy of the Maldives witnessed an uptick in the 1970s and associated rise in per capita GDP. However, the economy remains dependent on tourism, fishing and fish exports, and boat building-and-repairing. As per official statistics, tourism contributes about 22 per cent of the GDP; but according to the Asian Development Bank, if direct and indirect contributions are included, tourism is responsible for nearly 75 per cent of the GDP. Fish accounts for the bulk of its exports. The Maldives entered the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) in 2006 and signed a free trade agreement with China in 2017. The World Bank has, in its recent ‘In the Maldives Development Update – Batten Down the Hatches’, stated that “Maldives economic growth will slow down in the next two years and the financial challenges will be greater if the country continues to borrow at high costs amid the global economic slowdown.”

Any foreign military based in the Maldives has the potential to influence trade, and resource and energy access of a large segment of the world including India.  For India specifically, the Maldives archipelago is also the potential first line of defence against piracy emanating out of Africa’s east coast, terrorism, and arms and drug smuggling including from West Asia

Religion:  Till about the 10th century, the inhabitants of the Maldives were known to practice Buddhism and ancient paganism. After Arab and Persian traders began arriving in the Maldives from around 947 AD onwards, Maldivians began to be influenced by the former’s cultural, social and religious mores. In 1153 AD, Islam became its official religion, with all islanders converting by around 1215 AD. The Portuguese invaded the Maldives in 1558, but their ouster after 15 years put an end to attempts to convert the islanders to Christianity. The Dutch, operating out of Sri Lanka, merely surveyed the Maldives in 1671. With the arrival of the British, the Sultan of Maldives cut a deal that allowed the Maldives to enjoy the status of a protected state. The Sultanate became a Republic in 1953 with Mohamed Ameen Didi as President for a few months before the Sultanate was restored. The Maldives became independent in 1965. In 1968, the Sultanate was abolished again and Ibrahim Nassir was elected President. The Constitution designates Islam as the state religion, and requires citizens to be Muslim, and public office holders, including the President and judges, to be followers of Sunni Islam. The law criminalizes “criticism of Islam” and permits certain Sharia punishments, such as flogging, stoning, and amputation of hands.⁴

Strategic Importance

• The Maldives occupies a strategic location in the Indian Ocean below India’s Lakshadweep islands, and along major International Shipping Lanes (ISL). These ISLs connect Africa, Europe, and the Middle East with South Asia, and through the Malacca Strait, with SE Asia, and beyond with the western landmass of the Americas through the South and East China Seas. Thus, any foreign military based in the Maldives has the potential to influence trade, and resource and energy access of a large segment of the world including India.
• For India specifically, the Maldives archipelago is also the potential first line of defence against piracy emanating out of Africa’s east coast, terrorism, and arms and drug smuggling including from West Asia.
• The Maldives is an important archipelago for the USA too. The USA’s Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) and its 5th Fleet are headquartered in Bahrain. Thus, an adversarial power (read “China”) acquiring/establishing a military base in the Maldives will hold ramifications for the USA in terms of security of its trade and resource access lines, and power projection capabilities – and such a move will likely face a tremendous pushback from the USA.

Maldivian Political Landscape

Maldivian politics is convoluted, opportunistic, and vindictive, with courts seemingly influenced by political parties, and most political parties and some so-called NGOs using religion to gain legitimacy. Yet, there is some hope for democracy, as no incumbent president has been re-elected.

The Maldives is an important archipelago for the USA too. The USA’s Naval Forces Central Command and its 5th Fleet are headquartered in Bahrain. Thus, an adversarial power (read “China”) acquiring/establishing a military base in the Maldives will hold ramifications for the USA in terms of security of its trade and resource access lines, and power projection capabilities – and such a move will likely face a tremendous pushback from the USA

The Maldives, following an executive presidency since 1968, had a one-party system till 2008. The first President, Ibrahim Nassir (1968-1978), didn’t re-contest for a third term because of political unrest, after which the People’s Majlis appointed then Minister of Transport Maumoon Abdul Gayoom as the country’s second President. Maumoon was able to suppress the political reform movement till 2003 and remained in power till 2008, but continued to serve as leader of the Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party until January 2010 when he claimed to have retired from active politics. However, in September 2011, he returned as the leader of the newly formed Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM).

Mohamed Nasheed, a journalist and human rights activist, was the first democratically elected president of the Maldives. Praised by some as the ‘Mandela of the Maldives’, he was credited for ushering in democracy and freedom to the Maldives, and putting an end to Maumoon’s 30 years of authoritarian rule. After the September 2003 riots in Male, Nasheed left the Maldives for Sri Lanka and established the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) in self-exile. He returned to the Maldives in April 2005, and was elected president of the Maldives in 2008, but resigned from office in early 2012 in what he called a coup d’état forced on him by the Maldivian police and military, although an inquiry commission backed by the Commonwealth found he had resigned voluntarily. Thereafter, Mohamed Waheed Hassan Manik was appointed president (Feb 2012-Nov 2013).

In 2013, Nasheed (MDP) lost the ensuing presidential elections to Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom (Maumoon’s half-brother) of the PPM. In 2015, Nasheed (MDP) was charged and sentenced to 13 years in prison but was later allowed to travel to the UK for medical treatment. In July 2016, due to disagreements between President Abdulla Yameen and Maumoon, the PPM split into two. In October 2016, Maumoon withdrew his support for President Yameen and joined the Maldives United Opposition. In Feb 2018, Maumoon was arrested (along with his son and son-in-law) for allegedly conspiring to overthrow the government but was released in September 2018.

Meanwhile, Nasheed, unable to overturn his conviction by the court, nominated Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, his friend and party senior in the MDP, to contest the 2018 presidential election. Solih won, and in October 2018, the Supreme Court of the Maldives dropped the charges against Nasheed. He returned to the Maldives and was appointed Speaker of the People’s Majlis in 2019. But a falling out between Solih and Nasheed led the latter to become publicly critical of Solih. In May 2021, Nasheed was severely injured after an IED detonated outside his home. In December 2022, former president Abdulla Yameen was sentenced to 11 years in prison and a fine of US$ 5 million on charges of corruption and money laundering. In June 2023, Nasheed broke away from the MDP/former President Solih, and formed a new political party, “The Democrats”. In the August-September 2023 presidential poll, his new party (Democrats) put up its candidate against Solih and won about 7 per cent of the vote, which, as per analysts assisted in defeating Solih. While Nasheed as President (2008-2012) had maintained cordial ties with India, apparently, he had a change of heart over his perception that New Delhi had switched its loyalty from him to President Solih. Now, he is again angling for Indian support.

(……………Coming up: the concluding part of the in-depth analysis)

-The writer is a former Principal Director, National Security Council Secretariat. He has also served as Director (Intelligence Coordination), Defence Intelligence Agency in its founding years, and also as Senior Consultant in the NDMA, MHA.

References

1. https://census.gov.mv/2022/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Provisional-Result-Publication.pdf
2. https://census.gov.mv/2022/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Provisional-Result-Publication.pdf
3. https://www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/data/MDV
4. https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/441219-MALDIVES-2022-INTERNATIONAL-RELIGIOUS-FREEDOM-REPORT.pdf