Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s three-day visit to Poland and Ukraine is a message that India is trying to send to the European countries that it attaches equal importance to ties with its European allies and is equally concerned at the present tumultuous nature of global geopolitics, especially the Russo-Ukraine war.
This visit, monumental precisely for the timing, aims at enhancing India’s role as a paragon of peace in global geopolitical discourse that has been upended by two bloody wars – one in the eastern part of Europe and the other in the Middle East amidst several other low-intensity conflicts in the world. The visit also aims to enhance India’s role in establishing a level playing in defusing the causes of wars that result in the loss of precious human lives and put a spanner in the ability of global organisations, particularly the UN, to call for a ceasefire.
Shoring up ties
The visit coincides with the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the establishment of India’s diplomatic ties with Poland and the significant feat of Prime Minister Narendra Modi being the first head of government in India to pay a state visit to Ukraine since the establishment of diplomatic ties back in 1992.
The July 8 visit of Prime Minister Modi to Russia received an opprobrious reaction in Euro-Atlantic capitals, particularly from the USA and Ukraine, with the latter calling the state visit a “devastating blow to peace efforts” in the Ukraine-Russia war that began in 2022. It is aimed at securitising Indian interests in Eastern Europe.
Playing the balancing game
The PM’s state visit to Poland is aimed at reassuring frayed nerves in India’s East European allies that not only does India prioritise its ties with the post-communist countries of the eastern part of Europe, but it will do all it can to guarantee their sovereignty and security by acting as a moral guardian on the part of Russia even as it seeks to bolster ties with the Polish government.
This visit is essentially directed at strengthening India’s ties with NATO and the EU’s eastern flank, which has been on the edge ever since the Russian invasion of Ukraine that triggered the biggest and bloodiest war and geopolitical conflict in Europe since World War II. It also aims to send a direct message to Washington as well as Moscow that India doesn’t play the pick-and-choose game that their strong allies want. It signals that India doesn’t follow Russian or American diktats of the ‘either you are with us or against us’ approach to diplomacy.
PM Modi’s visit is essentially directed at strengthening India’s ties with NATO and the EU’s eastern flank, which has been on the edge ever since the Russian invasion of Ukraine that triggered the biggest and bloodiest war and geopolitical conflict in Europe since World War II.
Indian foreign policy, guided by the doctrine of strategic autonomy for decades, remains strong and intact. Poland, too, considers New Delhi’s visit at a critical time when Ukraine for the first time in the past two years has been able to breach the Russian border and enter Russian territory in the Kursk region, prompting a fierce counterattack from Russian forces. At such a fragile time, Russia fearing the worst may resort to nuclear sabre-rattling. Poland needs India to persuade Russia not to play fast and loose with the ‘nuclear’ option.
PM Modi’s visit to Ukraine is most crucial because he is travelling to the country for the first time in his decade-long tenure and becoming the first Indian Prime Minister to visit the country, which demonstrates the importance India attaches to Ukraine.
Contrary to criticism in several Western capitals and think-tanks, India’s visit to Ukraine is aimed at balancing ties between Ukraine and Russia. Time and again the PM has emphasised the need to ensure the peaceful resolution of conflict using diplomacy, but given the complex nature of the situation in the ongoing war, India has advocated a negotiated settlement that will not only save precious lives but also calm tensions in Eastern Europe.
Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Ukraine is most crucial because he is travelling to the country for the first time in his decade-long tenure and becoming the first Indian Prime Minister to visit the country, which demonstrates the importance India attaches to Ukraine.
Prime Minister Modi’s visit also aims to strengthen ties with Western countries to counter China in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. A strong Europe with a solid collaborative presence in the Indo-Pacific region and, within that, in the South China Sea is crucial to prevent any further misadventure by China in India’s neighbourhood.
With tensions in India’s neighbourhood thanks to the dramatic ouster and termination of Shiekh Hasina’s rule, China is having a gala day. Life has become all the more difficult for New Delhi’s neighbourhood diplomacy. Hence, strengthening ties with Ukraine will strengthen India’s ability to try and bring peace in Eastern Europe and help provide it with more leverage to try and de-couple Russia from China’s sphere of influence.
PM Modi’s visit also aims to strengthen ties with Western countries to counter China in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. A strong Europe with a solid collaborative presence in the Indo-Pacific region is crucial to prevent any further misadventure by China in India’s neighbourhood.
The American factor
In paying a visit to Poland and Ukraine, India is sending a message to Washington that it will certainly not do Washington’s bidding vis-à-vis Russia in choosing one side over the other. India is a sovereign country capable of maintaining its ties and will certainly not be coerced or arm-twisted into making decisions detrimental to its national interests.
India accords priority to ties with every country, whether big or small within its diplomatic axis. It will determine the nature of ties and decide how to shape them. This visit is also designed to reassure Washington that India is still a formidable player in global geopolitics, especially when it comes to making diplomatic efforts to establish a ceasefire and eventually a permanent peace. India shares independent ties with Ukraine and Russia and isn’t interested in following the zero-sum template in its ties with both countries.
Diplomacy is all about getting the job done. Hard and skilled bargaining in an inclusive yet subtle manner is the heart and soul of diplomacy. In the world of international politics, a country cannot afford to take a monochromatic view of ties with different nation-states, this applies not just to India but to all countries. In this context, Indian diplomacy has realised the need to maintain careful equidistance from all sides concerned, yet take strategic steps to reinforce ties with various countries and international organisations.
The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
