The last week’s happenings in Pakistan have been a cause of concern, apprehension and hope all mixed together for the Indian establishment, as the elements involving the country’s political, judicial and military establishments unfolded at a fast pace and they might signify a future trend for Pakistan and democracy in Pakistan.
To examine the current happenings in Pakistan and also analyse the trend for the future of India-Pakistan bilateral relationship, country’s leading think tank, Global Counter terrorism Centre (GCTC) organised a panel discussion on the topic with leading military, security and diplomatic experts. The discussion was moderated by Major Amit Bansal (Retd.), a Defence Strategist.
The panel discussion was opened by Lt Gen Deependra Singh Hooda (Retd.) PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, VSM & Bar, Former GOC-in-C, Northern Army Command. General Hooda, very eloquently summed up the recent events in Pakistan. He started off by listing the crises faced by Pakistan in the last year or two. First, the floods happened, then the financial crisis worsened, with no signs of any IMF bailout, this coupled with unrest in Baluchistan and TTP rearing its head again in border areas of the country, posed a headache for the army and the political class, both.
Former PM Imran Khan adopted a completely confrontational approach with the coalition government
General Hooda was of the opinion that in this background, former PM Imran Khan, adopted a completely confrontational approach with the coalition government, which had slapped 146 different cases of corruption and misdemeanour on the former prime minister. The Army, which has always been a key player in the power chessboard of Pakistan, is clearly siding with the government and it has even gone against the judiciary, which had asked for fresh elections on 14 May.
The country’s Defence Minister echoing Army’s thoughts went on record in the country saying that the timing is not right for holding elections. The current imbroglio has also divided the Army in Pakistan, with pro and anti-Imran elements at loggerheads in the Army.
Commenting on Indo-Pak relations General Hooda said that at present they are at the lowest level, with no bilateral contacts, positions have hardened on both sides, the conditions being dictated by the Pakistan government/slash Army are not going to be accepted by India ever. Moreover, given the current political situation in the country, with Indian government being in election mode and the Pakistani government facing the plethora of internal challenges, General Hooda opined that currently talks are not on anyone’s agenda.
We should be more concerned about the affect of these events on the role of the non-state actors as it seems that no one seems to be controlling them
Instead, Gen Hooda felt that we should be more concerned about the affect of these events on the role of the non-state actors, as it seems that no one seems to be controlling them. So non-state actors like TTP and Jaish could step up their activities in Afghanistan and J&K. We need to man our borders more efficiently and keep a strong grip on internal security. Thus, India needs to take a more strong defensive posture.
Ambassador (Dr) TCA Raghavan, Former High Commissioner to Pakistan, summing-up the recent events at the diplomatic level said that in spite of upheavals of the past year, one positive thing is that largely the ceasefire has held between the two countries. In this scenario, maintaining our border vigil, and strengthening our internal security grid are more important so as not to let any rogue terrorist elements take any advantage of the chaotic situation in Pakistan.
Ambassador Raghavan further opined that this multi-pronged crisis in Pakistan has many novel features. But in the current scenario, it would be useful to recall that an anti-military sentiment has always existed in Pakistan, Imran has used that sentiment to his advantage and that lies at the root of the present crisis. Though in the past too politicians and governments who have used the military or have been used by the military to ensure their survival have been their, but it seems that Imran wants to severe that umbilical chord.
Dr Anju Gupta, IPS, Director General (Training), Uttar Pradesh Police was of the view that at present the Pakistan Army seems to be under siege, and which has increased after the withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan. Post-withdrawal Taliban or Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has carried out 350, while the Baloch separatists have carried out 500 attacks in Pakistan.
In this scenario, maintaining our border vigil, and strengthening our internal security grid are more important
So far, in 2023 every month on an average over 100 attacks have been reported from Tribal areas and Baluchistan against Police, para-military, and also military. Anger against Pak army is increasing. Also there is a rethinking in the Pakistani Army about their core role, as a defence organ or as a one safeguarding the political structure of the country. This has put Pakistan’s internal security challenges in limelight. Taliban, earlier being a proxy of the Pakistan Army have turned against it and wants no truck with it, also evident by the manner in which the former ISI chief was handled by the Talibani leadership in Afghanistan on the issue of forming a new caretaker government in Afghanistan.
Dr Gupta was of the view that the Pak army has weakened and also lost credibility to certain extent, due to the happenings of the last three days and last two years in Afghanistan, it can respond by a soul searching, or on the other hand to assert its relevance it could up the ante and bring out more proxies and unleash more attacks in J&K. So India should be cautious about the growth of extremist propaganda and activities against it, from Af-Pak region in the coming months
Moderator, Major Amit Bansal was of the view that Pakistan eager to get international credibility and recognition may try to work out a more comprehensive plan, one that would involve contribution from the military, political and judicial elements, together.
Pak army has weakened and also lost credibility due to the happenings of the last three days and last two years in Afghanistan
Prof Ajay Darshan Behera, Professor, Academy of International Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia was of the view that an agreement between the military and Imran-led PTI could not be ruled out. As Imran basically strives for power, his ambition is to be in the centre seat of the power game. But here he has been able to gauge the anti-military sentiment in the public and used that as an opportunity to be a relevant force in Pakistani politics. No one wants to antagonise the military, here is someone who came to power at the behest of the military and is now challenging it, he is an unpredictable character and cannot be controlled by the military. Pakistan, according to Prof Behera is in a sate of political decay.
The panel discussion bough out the recent political and economic woes of Pakistan but it was unanimous that at the moment there is no sign or even inclination of any kind related to revive the stalemated Indo-Pak relations.
-The writer is a political commentator based in New Delhi. He can be contacted on www.asadmirza.in. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
-The writer is a New Delhi-based senior commentator on international and strategic affairs, environmental issues, an interfaith practitioner, and a media consultant. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily carry the views of Raksha Anirveda
