One may accept it or not, but it is an undeniable truth that India has emerged as a frontline state that is not only fighting China-led expansionism but also extremism, radicalisation, and terrorism – increasing in the South Asian region because of overt state support to these elements from Pakistan.
China’s brute face of expansionism is manifest through various grey zone tactics, which include Beijing’s unilateral declaration of creation of two counties in the East Asian country’s Hotan prefecture that falls in the Union Territory of Ladakh; its habit of periodically issuing list of new names for locations in Arunachal Pradesh and above all keeping in control Aksai Chin for the past five decades.
But then, what has created an unease among Indian strategic thinkers and foreign policy experts has been China’s attempt to engage in activities that have a direct impact on India’s security. During the recent India-Pakistan conflict, most of the armaments used by Pakistani military against India were either China-supplied or produced in joint venture between the two countries.
Although, in the face of India’s modern and high-tech military equipment, China-made defence technology lost its significance for Pakistan – both militarily and strategically, as it failed to achieve desired results for the Pakistani military, making it a laughing stock in the world. According to Australia’s Lowy Institute, more than 80% of Pakistan’s arms imports came from China in the period between 2020 and 2024.
What has created an unease among Indian strategic thinkers and foreign policy experts has been China’s attempt to engage in activities that have a direct impact on India’s security. During the recent India-Pakistan conflict, most of the armaments used by Pakistani military against India were either China-supplied or produced in joint venture between the two countries
Considered as the key player in Pakistan’s nuclear programme, China has reportedly pledged to expedite the delivery of several defence platforms, including advanced J-35A, a so-called fifth-generation stealth fighter, to Pakistan. According to media reports, the first batch of J-35A is expected to be delivered by China to Pakistan by early 2026.
Yet, what proved as a complete broken reed was China’s reported help to Pakistan in extending its comprehensive satellite coverage during ‘Operation Sindoor.’
CPEC and Its Convoluted Designs
Faced with this humiliation, China, which shares ‘ironclad’ friendship with Pakistan, played a fresh but tricky game, ostensibly to unnerve India. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted an informal meeting with Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Afghanistan’s Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Beijing on May 21 – more than a week after New Delhi and Islamabad announced ceasefire following a four-day conflict that crippled Pakistan’s military infrastructure.
The three leaders decided to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – a part of the Beijing led contentious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to Afghanistan. The CPEC, which passes through Pakistan occupied Kashmir, considered by India as a part of its territory, is embedded with China’s hidden agenda.
Given that it provides strategic military leverage through dual-use infrastructure – ports and highways, there is a concern that China may potentially use it as a tool to surround India.
Moreover, in the backdrop of India’s strengthening relations with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, China’s decision to extend the CPEC to Kabul and beyond is seen as Beijing’s move to checkmate New Delhi’s increasing engagement with the Taliban, who had condemned the deadly terror strike in Pahalgam on April 22 that left 26 tourists dead and dozens injured.
In the backdrop of India’s strengthening relations with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, China’s decision to extend the CPEC to Kabul and beyond is seen as Beijing’s move to checkmate New Delhi’s increasing engagement with the Taliban, who had condemned the deadly terror strike in Pahalgam on April 22 that left 26 tourists dead and dozens injured
Growing engagement between India and Taliban
On May 15, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar held a telephonic conversation with Afghanistan’s Acting Foreign Minister Muttaqi, marking the first minister-level outreach to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan since it came to power in Kabul in August 2021. Shorn of formal recognition, India has slowly but steadily expanded its diplomatic engagement with the Taliban.
This year in January, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri held a meeting with Muttaqi in Dubai – a development that took place in the backdrop of deterioration of ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan after the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacked a Pakistani military outpost in South Waziristan, resulting in the death of 16 Pakistani soldiers.
Pakistan launched retaliatory airstrikes, leading to casualties among civilians, including children. However, India, given its continued humanitarian support to Kabul, has earned a soft corner for itself among Afghan people and this is well recognised by the Taliban, whose request for appointing a representative to head the embassy of Afghanistan is reportedly being considered by India.
It is said that the representative to be appointed by the Taliban regime for the embassy of Afghanistan in New Delhi, will be neither accredited by the Indian government nor will be accorded the status of a diplomat. Yet, it will be seen as a significant incremental progress in relations between India and the Taliban. India earlier allowed the Taliban to appoint an Afghan national, who lived and studied in India as the head of the consulate of Afghanistan in Mumbai.
In the midst of such developments, what created a buzz in the diplomatic circle was India’s decision to allow 162 Afghan trucks, loaded with dry fruits and herbs, to cross through the Integrated Check Post (ITP) at Attari.
In the wake of killing of 25 Indian nationals and one Nepali citizen in Pahalgam by Pakistan-based terrorists on April 22, India had imposed restrictions on cross-border movement through the Wagah-Attari border. In retaliation, Islamabad did the same and suspended trade with India, including to and from any third country through its territory.
But India, in a show of special gesture towards Afghanistan, allowed more than 160 trucks stranded between Lahore and Wagah border to cross into the country, winning applause from the Taliban. This created heartburn among authorities in Pakistan and China.
Aches in China over India’s Rise
India’s growing economic strength and subsequent rise in its international standing has been a source of wariness for both Pakistan and China. Projected to remain the fastest-growing economy for 2025 and 2026, India is seen as the one dominating the global economic landscape in coming years.
Its economy is expected to expand by 6.2% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026. In contrast, the IMF projects global economic growth to be much lower, at 2.8 % in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, highlighting India’s exceptional outperformance. Today, it is the 4th largest economy of the world and in a few years, it will become 3rd largest economy.
Then on account of tight monetary policy, it has managed to keep the inflation rate for 2025 at 4.2%. According to data from the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, India’s retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, slipped to 6-year low at 3.34%.
China is not prepared to accept an argument that demographic dividend has made India a preferred location for some of the best manufacturing companies of the world. “It is extremely hard for India to copy China’s take-off by taking advantage of its demographic dividend,” Lou Chunhao of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations said. The statement arguably reflects a deeper sense of unease within China regarding India’s rising economic heft
In comparison, China’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been downgraded to 4%, down from 4.6% in January 2025 edition of the World Economic Outlook. Experts suggest that China’s slowing economy will suffer more damages after the 90-day tariff reprieve given by the Trump administration on Chinese goods ends.
On the other hand, the housing sector crisis and low household consumption continue to be a big drag on its economy, while the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has yet to show any sign of improvement. In January, China’s actual use of FDI reached $13.4 billion, down 13.4% year-on-year, data from China’s Ministry of Commerce revealed.
Amidst this, China has fallen into the vortex of a demographic challenge. With 15.4% of its citizens aged 65 or older, the East Asian country faces economic challenges in terms of declining workforce. Labour shortages have threatened industrial productivity, triggering concerns about the sustainability of its growth.
Overall, China is increasingly viewed as an economy which has plateaued, lacking energy to power its growth engine. This haunts the Chinese authorities, as they are finding it hard to restrict piling public debt in China. In 2025, China’s average central government debt-to-GDP ratio was, as per the IMF, was 96%.
In contrast, India’s central government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline to 56.1% in 2025-26 from 57.1 % in 2024-25 – a positive sign. If things go well, India will be a $7 trillion economy by 2030 and a $10 trillion economy by 2032, says IDBI Capital in its report. This is said to have generated a sense of discomfort in China.
China’s Apprehensions About India
Giving a sense of how India’s rise will factor in China’s calculus, Times Bole equity, a noted equity firm in an article said China’s biggest competitor in the future will not be ASEAN, Japan, the US, the European Union, or Russia, but India. It further said that India has become the most promising large economy globally and is ambitious to become the next China.
However, China’s official narrative, largely carried out by the state-backed media outlets like Global Times, is that India’s economic rise is just a Western media’s hype “to dampen China’s development confidence.” “The Indian economy will not overtake China in the foreseeable future,” says Global Times.
China is not prepared to accept an argument that demographic dividend has made India a preferred location for some of the best manufacturing companies of the world. “It is extremely hard for India to copy China’s take-off by taking advantage of its demographic dividend,” Lou Chunhao of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations said. The statement arguably reflects a deeper sense of unease within China regarding India’s rising economic heft.
Explaining the rationale behind Beijing’s support to Pakistan for its terrorism against India, Dr Chietigj Bajpayee, a senior research fellow for South Asia in the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House said, “China is a party to the Kashmir dispute through its claim to Eastern Ladakh/Aksai Chin and control over the Shaksgam/Trans-Karakoram Tract that Pakistan handed over to China in 1963”
China’s Overt Support to Pakistan on Terrorism Against India
In this context, it will be sheer callous to overlook Beijing’s direct or indirect involvement in the rising anti-India activities spanning the Indian Ocean, South Asia and Southeast Asia. China is also a factor in Pakistan sponsored cross-border terrorism – an assessment shared by several strategists.
Explaining the rationale behind Beijing’s support to Pakistan for its terrorism against India, Dr Chietigj Bajpayee, a senior research fellow for South Asia in the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House said, “China is a party to the Kashmir dispute through its claim to Eastern Ladakh/Aksai Chin and control over the Shaksgam/Trans-Karakoram Tract that Pakistan handed over to China in 1963.”
He further pointed out that while China condemned the Pahalgam attack, it stopped short of expressing solidarity with India, instead, it reaffirmed its close relations with Pakistan, often referred to as its “ironclad friend.” A brute fact on China’s support to Pakistan on terrorism can be seen by its activity in the UNSC.
According to a dossier by the National Investigation Agency (NIA), China played a key role in blocking sanctions against Abdul Rauf Asghar, Sajid Mir, Abdur Rehman Makki, Talha Saeed, Shahid Mehmood Rehmatullah – the five terrorists who have been involved in several terror strikes in India, including the 2001 Parliament attack, the 26/11 attack, the 2016 Pathankot attack, the 2019 Pulwama suicide bombing and the IC814 hijack in 1999.
The Resistance Force (TRF), which was involved in the killing of 26 people – 25 Indians and one Nepali citizen in Pahalgam on April 22, was shielded by China thrice from being sanctioned at the UNSC. As per the NIA, India made three submissions on TRF – first in December 2023, followed by a second one in May 2024, and the latest in December 2024. But each time China shielded TRF from being added to the UN sanction list. These developments confirm experts’ view that China is a factor in Pakistan-backed terrorism against India.
China as a Security Threat
Sharing border dispute with India, China supports countries with which New Delhi has an itchy relationship. This includes Bangladesh, with whom India’s relations have soured since Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was removed from her post, last year in August.
Since the arrival of Muhammad Yunus as the Chief Adviser of Bangladesh’s interim government, China has increased its influence in the country. To the detriment of India, China is modernising Mongla Port – Bangladesh’s second-largest seaport.
China has increased its engagement with the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project. However, what worries India the most is Bangladesh’s invitation to China to rebuild the World War-II era developed airfield in Lalmonirhat, which is situated near India’s strategically located Siliguri corridor.
Built in 1931 and used by the Allied Forces during World War-II, Lalmonirhat airfield is currently lying dormant. It is roughly 20 km away from the Indian border and is very close to Siliguri, a city in West Bengal which connects mainland India with its eight northeastern states.
All this indicates the broader and deeper geopolitical game of China to hinder India’s powerful rise in the world. By extending military and economic support to Pakistan, increasing strategic footprints in Bangladesh, and resisting India and like-minded countries’ effort to sanction terrorism emanating from the Pakistani soil, China has made its intent clear
Once Lalmonirhat airfield is rebuilt, it could be used for intelligence gathering and logistics support. Adding to India’s concern, China has decided to provide comprehensive financial and technical support for developing a submarine base in Pekua, located near Cox Bazar in Bangladesh.
All this indicates the broader and deeper geopolitical game of China to hinder India’s powerful rise in the world. By extending military and economic support to Pakistan, increasing strategic footprints in Bangladesh, and resisting India and like-minded countries’ effort to sanction terrorism emanating from the Pakistani soil, China has made its intent clear.
However, despite such provocations, India has demonstrated both resilience and strategic maturity. Its growing economic clout, rising diplomatic stature, and deepening engagement with regional actors, even in complex terrains like Afghanistan – signal a confident and assertive nation charting its own course.
While the Indo-Pacific and South Asian geostrategic architecture continues to evolve, it is India’s vision, stability, and democratic values that may offer a credible alternative to authoritarian expansionism. China’s attempt to contain India may ultimately lose its purpose, because New Delhi continues to move unsteadily and resolutely like an elephant – unshaken and not bothered by any provocations.
–The writer is a senior journalist with wide experience in covering international affairs. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
