The world is shrinking at a fast pace due to rapid advancement in transportation technologies and infrastructure. For the strategists worried about national security, this heralds a set of opportunities as well as adds complexities due to the existing threat scenario. The brief history of time has also shown us how staunch enemies having fought wars have suddenly turned good friends either to fend off a threat and enhance business opportunities or add socio-economic and cultural dimension to their relationship. Japan-US ties and the Indo-US relations are perfect examples.
Several relationships among nations have been crafted and executed as well balanced business relations on the one hand with conflicts of strategic interests on the other hand. With the advent of world wars, the cold war phase and the ultimate disintegration of the USSR, new alliances and power centres emerged at the centre-stage. The rise of China was a major event though ‘the peaceful rise of China’ has long been debunked.
Peaceful Rise of China ‘No More’
In the garb of a strengthening economy, the aggressive Chinese muscle flexing has taken the world by storm amid frenzied defence build-up, claiming of territories not just across its 28 borderline nations it shares border with, but all across the Indo-Pacific Sea. China has serious border issues with most of its neighbours (including India), which have not been sorted out mainly because of Chinese unwillingness to adapt itself with the past realities. The fact was the China was once a bunch of small prefectures/ states which were independently ruled either by native rulers or in many cases occupied imperialist forces. The Opium wars could add to the deliberation as a good reference point.
The British were in several cases the decision makers and the one who drew up the national and international borders not just among China and its subsequent neighbours, but several other international borders with acceptance from both parties. But lo and behold! China refuses to accept the past and believes that it solely has the right to decide the borders of the nation. China does not believe in borders drawn by nations in the past which no longer have any relevance in world geo-politics, a subtle indication to the United Kingdom that the Sun in its realm of influence has finally set. But what led to the formation of Quad or the Asian NATO is something that should create interest among the readers.
The Birth of QUAD
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD) also known as the Quad was not something which emerged as a bolt from the blue. It was already beginning to shape in the psyche of strategists, worried about the blatant expansionism of the Communist Party of China supported by the usage of ‘Chinese Debt Trap Strategy’. The ‘Chinese Debt Trap strategy’ was liberally used to subvert smaller and weaker states to part away its sovereign territories after failing to pay its debt just like Maldives, Sri Lanka and Pakistan had to do away with it. Several African nations have since succumbed to the trap.
Quad initially started as a dialogue in 2007 propounded by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan, with the support of Vice President Dick Cheney of the US, Prime Minister John Howard of Australia and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India. Democratic nations were worried that the pace at which China was using its expansionist strategies to expand its realm of influence would one day lead to a global catastrophe with peace, independence, liberalism, freedom of expression, secularism and democracy being the biggest casualty with dictatorship calling the shots.
‘Frailty’ thy name was Manmohan Singh
Unfortunately, Manmohan Singh’s lack of decisiveness and understanding of the importance of strategic cooperation with US, Japan and allies and the fear within him to antagonise Communist China at the back of renewed attempts by Government partners (mostly left parties) to withdraw from any effort to contain China (even if that hurt Indian interests), was a major stumbling block. Even if he really wished to take decision, it was his inability to go against the so called ‘High Command’ to take effective steps in favour of Indian interest. But could Dr Singh ever expect any support from Sonia Gandhi and her Congress Party which signed an agreement with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) without the knowledge of the Government of India?
Besides, the close cooperation agreement between two grand old parties from China and India, the very statement by Manmohan Singh during his China visit in 2008 where he labelled the India-China relation as ‘priority’ effectively ensuring that hibernation of the QUAD. Lack of effective leadership in Japan led by Yasuo Fukoda and Kevin Rudd in Australia to take cudgels against China did not help either. Obama’s lack of spine to stand up against Chinese aggressiveness gave China enough courage to take a ‘threat to world peace’.
The dawn of a ‘new era’ for QUAD
Things changed rapidly with the change of Governments in India, Japan, US and Australia. Much against the wishes of Chinese leadership, during the 2017 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summits all four former members rejoined in negotiations to revive the quadrilateral alliance. With Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of Australia, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, and President Donald Trump of the United States agreeing in Manila to revive the security pact among tensions in the South China Sea caused primarily by China and its territorial ambitions, QUAD had made a grand entry.
One of the important functions of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad among the member nations namely United States, Japan, Australia and India was to maintain regular summits, information exchanges and military drills among the countries. The formation of Quad was also necessitated due to the growing threat emanating from China since the beginning of the decade wherein it started to flex muscles against its neighbours. The advent of the COVID 19 pandemic ensured that things went beyond anyone’s control. Worst was the very deliberate act of China to utilise the pandemic for its selfish gains.
But given the manner it rushed to suppress facts indicates a truth which could no longer be hidden from the eyes of the world i.e. man made nature of the virus, the attempt to spread the virus across the world deliberately and use the opportunely to bully the world by projecting its might. The manner in which China utilized all its powers to grab and hoard medical resources, sell required medicines and necessary equipment at a premium, deliberately provide low quality, and inaccurate and extraneous medical equipment to Europe, Asia and other nations while utilising the time to force smaller nations to repay debt during the difficult situation were just a few of those deeds which has led to widespread anger across the world against Chinese. The South China Sea conflagration, the Galwan valley border crisis and the threat emanating due to the dictatorial approach of China against Taiwan and Hong Kong are the points not to be missed by the Quad.
It was exactly for these reasons that QUAD was born to fight against. The latest addition to the QUAD turn of events is the plan for a joint military exercise ‘Malabar’ slated to be held in the Bay of Bengal at the end of the year with Australia as the newest addition. India on its part has just signed a mutual logistics support agreement with Japan a parting gifts by Abe to his best friend ‘Modi’ before he relinquishes his Prime Ministership on the grounds of health. It now boosts of mutual logistics support agreement with all the other three QUAD partners. Japan and Australia are already strategic partners having similar agreement signed. It can be effectively said that the keel for a strengthening closer military ties to ward of any extraneous or major threat emanating from China has been laid.
Quad will provide the necessary deterrence against China towards its current and planned misadventure and prove to be a lighthouse for other member states afflicted by Chinese hegemony to be part of a larger Quad, effectively a NATO of Asia. An indication of the things to come for the QUAD could be seen in the meeting of the foreign ministers of ASEAN regional forum held recently on September 10 where countries voiced their strong opposition to happenings in the South China Sea and the emanating border issues with China specifically with Brunei, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia. In future a major coalition of likeminded China aggrieved nations may just be the right body to bring China to its knees.
–The writer is an Assistant Professor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship at Institute of Management, Nirma University-Ahmedabad. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
