“The great question is, can war be eliminated when inventions of science are being used to prepare for it?” – Albert Einstein
The Emerging Trend: Wars are sparked by a variety of causes, often involving complex political, economic, socio-cultural, psychological, or ideological factors apart from sudden terror attacks or assassinations. However, a new factor that looms on the horizon is technological; cheaper technologies are becoming a significant factor in triggering wars, as they constantly lower the barriers to entry for conflict escalation, allowing more actors to wield dangerous power and thereby accelerating instability across regions. Cheaper technology does not mean only more gadgets but also means more unpredictable actors, faster escalation, and greater uncertainty in the chain of command. This makes misunderstandings, pre-emptive strikes, and proxy conflicts far more likely to spiral out of control.
The rapid advancement and democratisation of technology have indeed brought about significant changes in the global society. From communication and healthcare to education and warfare, technology has transformed the way humanity functions. However, with progress comes peril as well. The decreasing cost of powerful technologies such as drones, cyber weapons, artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, networked surveillance systems, autonomous vehicles, fast availability of information through the internet, and solutions to weapon manufacturing has made them more accessible not just to nations, but also to non-state actors and rogue regimes. While cheaper technology has enabled global development, it also presents a double-edged sword. In an increasingly multi-polar and fragmented geopolitical landscape, the widespread availability of cheap destructive tools can dramatically increase the risk of miscalculation, proxy conflicts, and total war. Notably, ‘cheaper technology’ is a significant factor that could inadvertently steer the world towards quicker and broader conflicts, which may result in World War III.
The high cost of traditional warfare once acted as a deterrent; only a few nations could afford to wage full-scale war. Today, technology has reversed that dynamics. A conflict that required vast resources and manpower can now be launched with drones, digital attacks, and automated systems at a fraction of the cost
Key factors facilitating the proliferation of cheaper technologies, causing dangerous conflicts:
Lower Entry Barrier
The most insidious effect of cheap technology is that it lowers the barrier to entry for war. The high cost of traditional warfare once acted as a deterrent, and only a few nations could afford to wage full-scale war. Today, technology has reversed that dynamics. A conflict that previously required vast resources and manpower can now be launched with drones, digital attacks, and automated systems at a fraction of the cost. This reduced cost makes military engagement more likely, especially for nations or actors with fewer resources. It also complicates deterrence, as traditional balance-of-power calculations become obsolete. When everyone has access to devastating tools, no one feels entirely secure or rational. The result is a volatile arms race in cheaper technologies, where paranoia and pre-emptive strikes become normalised.
Cheaper drones have become tools of modern warfare, seen in conflicts in Russia-Ukraine, Yemen, India-Pakistan, and Israel with Hamas & Iran, to name a few. Nations no longer need expensive fighter jets when drones costing a few hundred dollars can destroy multimillion-dollar targets
Weaponisation Using WebÂ
Today’s world-wide-web (www) is providing quicker, detailed information about military technologies and systems. Hence, a keen user continues to get information 24×7 about creating a weapon system and its off-the-shelf components through reasonably reliable open-source knowledge. This further facilitates smaller nations and militias to build effective military systems. Cheaper drones and unmanned systems have become tools of modern warfare, seen in conflicts in Russia-Ukraine, Yemen, India-Pakistan, and Israel with Hamas & Iran, to name a few. Nations no longer need expensive fighter jets when drones costing a few hundred dollars can destroy multimillion-dollar targets. A nation or group may feel emboldened to act aggressively, believing that its technological edge provides a strategic advantage. This democratisation of military power increases the probability of small conflicts escalating rapidly, drawing in larger powers and alliances.
Cyber warfare and the Invisible Battlefield
Cyber warfare exemplifies the hidden dangers of cheap yet powerful technologies. With a basic computer and an internet connection, hackers can disrupt economies, destabilise governments, and target critical infrastructure. Unlike traditional warfare, cyberattacks are difficult to trace, making retaliation a dangerous gamble. This ambiguity increases the chance of mistaken attribution, further escalating tensions. In a digitally connected world, the first strike in World War III might not involve missiles or tanks, but a cyberattack that disables an adversary’s power grid or financial system. Since cyber tools are inexpensive and scalable, more actors are entering this battlefield, increasing the risk of a major, cascading international incident.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Autonomous Systems
AI is another revolutionary game changer that carries serious risks when made cheaply and widely available. AI-powered autonomous weapons, such as drones that can select and kill targets without human intervention, are no longer science fiction. With open-source AI models and commercial components, even non-state actors can potentially deploy autonomous weapons. The proliferation of these weapons reduces the human cost of war for those who use them, making conflicts more palatable, politically. However, this automation removes human judgment and empathy from life-and-death decisions. In a crisis, autonomous systems might misidentify targets, provoke retaliation, or be hacked and turned against their users. The combination of speed, lack of accountability, and low cost could easily set the stage for an uncontrolled escalation leading to global war.
In a digitally connected world, the first strike in WWIII might not involve missiles or tanks, but a cyberattack that disables an adversary’s power grid or financial system. Since cyber tools are inexpensive, more actors are entering this battlefield, increasing the risk of a major, cascading international incident
Global Power Shifts and Proxy Wars
Cheaper military technologies have also enabled emerging powers to challenge traditional global hierarchies. Countries like China, Iran, North Korea, Brazil and Turkey have leveraged cost-effective technologies to project influence regionally and challenge dominant players. These dynamics often play out in proxy conflicts where powerful nations support opposing sides, as seen in Syria, Libya, Iran and Ukraine. When smaller nations or militant groups gain access to powerful, inexpensive tools, major powers may find themselves entangled in numerous regional conflicts. Over time, one of these proxy wars could spiral out of control, especially if one side suffers a significant loss and calls for direct intervention. The more numerous and volatile these localised conflicts become, the greater the likelihood that a global confrontation could emerge.
Misinformation & Psychological Warfare
Technology has not only made physical warfare cheaper but has also transformed information warfare. Through social media manipulation, deepfakes, and coordinated disinformation campaigns, it is possible to destabilise societies from within at minimal cost. As more nations and actors gain the ability to manipulate public perception, the risk of war through miscommunication, paranoia, or ideological radicalisation increases. Cheaper access to these psychological tools can undermine diplomacy, fuel nationalism, and create a climate ripe for conflict. In an environment of distrust and manipulated narratives, the potential for a global war grows exponentially.
The above factors, along with widespread access to drones and robotics, affordable cyberwarfare tools, asymmetric warfare trends, intelligent decision support systems and targeting, and reduced costs & risks through automation, pose a grave danger to humanity in the future.
AI is a revolutionary game-changer. AI-powered autonomous weapons, such as drones that can select and kill targets without human intervention, are no longer science fiction. With open-source AI models and commercial components, even non-state actors can potentially deploy autonomous weapons
Conclusion
It is fair to say that ‘cheaper weapons will make conflict a commodity anyone can afford’. While cheaper technology has undeniably democratised access to tools that were once reserved for powerful states, it has also dangerously altered the calculus of war. By lowering the cost and raising the availability of lethal and destabilising capabilities, it encourages reckless behaviour, reduces the threshold for engagement, and undermines traditional mechanisms of peace and deterrence. The risk of World War III is no longer limited to nuclear arsenals and superpower rivalries; it now involves a complex web of actors empowered by inexpensive and decentralised technology. To prevent a catastrophic conflict, the international community must urgently develop regulations, treaties, and diplomatic frameworks to control the spread and use of these technologies. Without such safeguards, cheaper technologies may not only spark the next war, but make it inevitable.
“The democratisation of warfare through cheap technology shifts power into unpredictable hands, lowering the cost of violence while raising the risk of global escalation.”
–The writer is a former Indian Navy Submarine Officer. He is an underwater weapons and missile specialist and a deep sea diver. An alumni of DSCSC Mirpur, Dhaka, he has been Directing Staff of the prestigious DSSC, Wellington, Tamil Nadu and instructor at the Submarine Training Centre, INS Satavahana, Visakhapatnam. He regularly writes on military strategy, warfare and technologies. He is an active member of the Strategic Think Tank USI, STRIVE and the Chakra dialogues foundation. The views expressed in the paper are personal. He can be reached at sumit12in@gmail.com
