“In a country where buildings (a reference to Jinnah House) are more sacred than the Constitution, anything is possible.” A tweet by a Pakistani, Abid Baig (@abidbaig) on June 8, 2023.
The jigsaw puzzle of Pakistan is getting entangled into unsolvable knots. The ringside view of any outside observer could well be: Well-fought democracy but the Army is the winner. It might not be entirely true. Imran Khan had created an existential threat to the Pakistani army by military-specific attacks by his workers on May 9, 2023. Had he succeeded the Pakistani army would have suffered irreparable damage. And, the threat still exists, which is why General Asim Munir insists on trials by military courts of civilians directly involved.
Truly speaking, the Imran Khan-led uprising of May 9, 2023, gave an impression that finally after 76 years of political wilderness, democracy will make a mark in Pakistan. But after an initial roar of the tiger, it turned out to be a damp squib. He now looks forward to US intervention or help in the restoration of democracy. He knows the US influence in Pakistan’s political and military life. This is the same Imran Khan who accused the USA in March 2022 of overthrowing his government.
Split within the army?
A question arises if the Army was in full control or if there was a deep split within the army, as reported by a London-based Twitter handle, retired Major Adil Raja of the Pakistani Army, a die-hard Imran supporter. He has been arrested now by the British police at the behest of the Pakistani government.
Adil Raja had claimed that in the Formation Commanders Conference, there was opposition to Army Chief General Asim Munir. It is alleged some 176 Army officers, Generals/Brigadiers included, have been arrested. However, the official press release by ISPR on the Formation Commanders Conference gave a different impression, which quoted the Army Chief taking a stiff stand against the planners and mastermind of May 9, 2023 violence (read Imran Khan). But his speech to army officers and veterans betrays his confidence in full backing by the army. Silence might have been imposed but a pressure-cooker situation exists.
It seems that Imran Khan, the best bet for the USA and the Western world, has run into deep troubles and General Asim Munir has decided to make an example out of him. This has alerted the USA and oblique efforts have begun to extricate Imran Khan from May 9 logjam. It is no wonder that even after serious charges against Imran Khan for masterminding the May 9 violence and chaos, he has not been arrested. Maybe the Pakistani government is under pressure from the USA. The IMF sword, wielded by the USA, hangs over its head.
In fact, even Imran Khan’s trial by the Army court is run aground because of two petitions against civilian trial by a military court. A nine-member bench has been set up by the Supreme Court to decide against its propriety. The bench includes present Chief Justice Umar Atta Baundiyal and Justice Qazi Faiz Issa, who is Imran’s bete noir. So, all legal and other efforts are on to allow Imran Khan to escape the long arms of the law.
Earlier, Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Congressman, had made various tweets in favour of Imran Khan. He had even asked General Asim Munir to resign. It may be noted that this was the desired objective of the failed uprising of May 9, 2023. The USA and Imran Khan want Asim Munir out because of their own reasons — Imran Khan because of Asim Munir knowing his secrets as ex-DG ISI and the USA because of Asim’s tilt towards China. While the USA is busy mapping an escape route for Imran, General Asim Munir was in no mood to pardon Imran Khan.
The China Connection
All said and done, the USA too cannot allow General Asim Munir, a Chinese protege, to have his way. Almost 60 Congressmen had voiced concern about Imran Khan’s fate. These efforts have begun to checkmate General Asim Munir. The USA was building pressure on him through connections within the army. Also, in so doing, the US army’s relations with the Pak army echelons are being rejuvenated. The result is that voices have been raised against the military trial of Imran Khan and his supporters. It is this pressure during Formation Commanders Conference, General Asim Munir conceded that women protesters would not be tried by military courts but by civil courts. This is a great relief for women supporters because civil courts have Imran Khan sympathisers. If Imran Khan is tried in a civil court, he too would go scot-free. This is the line of action by Imran supporters within and outside the army.
The ’Save Imran Operation’ is, therefore, in full swing in Pakistan by his well-wishers in the USA and the Western world. It is in this connection that British Army Chief General Patrick Sanders’ recent visit to Pakistan has to be viewed. Surprisingly, his engagements with civil/army authorities have gone unreported in Pakistan. His visit has been followed by the Australian High Commissioner meeting various political leaders. It is definitely a direct link in the effort to protect Imran Khan, who was being branded as the ‘mastermind’ of the May 9 attacks on army installations. If he was tried by a military court, it could lead to life-long incarceration in jail or be made an example of a la ZA Bhutto style. The Pakistan military shows no mercy towards Pakistan’s popular leaders, whether it was ZA Bhutto, his daughter Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.
Noose Tightening Around Imran Khan
While the ‘Save Imran Operation’ is in full swing, Imran Khan has been slapped with a murder charge in connection with the killing of a lawyer, Abdul Razzaq Shar of Quetta. He was killed on June 6, 2023, by unknown assailants while he was on his way to Balochistan High Court in Quetta. It may be noted that Abdul Razzaq Shar had accused Imran Khan of treason, which is a very serious charge and it can lead to a death sentence if he was convicted. The charge of abetment of murder has been levied by Siraj Ahmed, the son of the deceased lawyer. A murder charge might take him to the gallows like ZA Bhutto.
So, it seems, on the one hand, the noose around Imran Khan was being tightened; on the other hand, Imran Khan is left untouched even one and a half months after the incident, while his colleagues and workers were arrested. This inaction has emboldened him to continue his tirade against authorities through a spate of interviews with foreign journalists, because of the government’s helplessness to initiate any action against him.
Significance of US Presence
Clearly, some forces from within and outside were backing him up. The judiciary is in no mood to see him out of the political ring. The presence of the ex-Chief Justice of Pakistan Gulzar Ahmed during US Ambassador Blome’s address in Karachi on June 23, 2023, speaks volumes on the US clout in Pakistan’s judiciary. It curtails Gen Asim Munir’s manoeuvrability.
It must be understood that the US presence in Pakistan is so intimate and intense that it would be very difficult for China and its cohorts in Pakistan to replace it. Speaking at an interactive session on ‘US-Pakistan Relations: Present and Future’ organised by the Pakistan Council on Foreign Relations (PCFR) in Karachi on June 23, 2023, US Ambassador Blome said, “…more than 2,000 Pakistani officers have gone on US-funded military education and training programmes and Pakistan is among the top two countries in the world for participation in US military exchanges.”
This was a reminder to Army Chief Gen Asim Munir to know how deep the US ties with the Pakistan Army are. It was a clear-cut warning to him that if he crossed the redline, he might be ousted. In the same breath, he had de-hyphenated Pakistan’s relationship with China and the USA by saying, “I want to make it clear that the United States is not pressing Pakistan to choose between the US and economic relations with China,” as reported by The Dawn on June 25, 2023.
Caught Between Devil and Deep Sea
In the final assessment, it seems Pakistan was caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. Its 75 years history of depending upon others has pushed it into this. Therefore, the Army continues to enjoy a stranglehold, while democracy was incapacitated at birth. The Army too does not have clear-cut freedom of action as it acts only at the spanking of the whip of its ringmaster, whether China or the USA. Imran Khan’s arrest on May 9, 2023, was at the behest of the Chinese Foreign Minister who visited Pakistan on May 6/7, 2023. He advised Pakistan to put its house in order before China gives any financial help. And quick on the heels of his advice came the May 9 arrest. And now, the USA is busy trying to extricate him out of the mess, his arrest had created. The USA wields the IMF sword to Imran’s detractors at bay. Real status is: No Victor; No vanquished! There is utter uncertainty and chaos. What a sham the “Two Nation” Theory is!
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
