The situation in the Middle East in 2024 continued to simmer, with serious geopolitical, geoeconomic, and strategic consequences for the region and the wider world. India’s ability to maintain its position as a leading partner of key regional countries and walk a complex diplomatic tightrope has enabled it to sustain cooperation across political divides. India approached the regional situation with deft diplomacy and adopted firm positions when necessary. For instance, India condemned the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas on Israel as a terrorist act. Simultaneously, it supported a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war and urged regional countries to avoid a broader conflagration. Moreover, India reaffirmed its long-standing support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
As the geopolitical dynamics evolve, particularly with the winding down of the Israel-Hamas war, the ongoing power transition in Syria, and the anticipation of potential policy shifts under Trump 2.0, India is poised to deepen its political, economic, and strategic engagements with the Middle East. India’s primary focus will include energy security, the safety and welfare of Indian expatriates, maritime security, counter-terrorism, and defence and security cooperation. Developments in the Middle East will continue to significantly impact India, and its ability to manage and enhance relationships with regional powers will have far-reaching implications for its foreign policy and international relations.
Gaza Crisis
The war in the Gaza Strip persisted with serious consequences for the future of both Palestinians and Israelis. While Israel gradually regained a sense of control, fighting a multi-front war, it incurred massive political costs. The country faced mounting international criticism and condemnation for the dehumanising impact of the war, as the casualties in the Gaza Strip soared and allegations of war crimes by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the densely populated Palestinian enclave gained traction. The policy of depopulating vast areas within the Strip displaced nearly 90 per cent of its 2.2 million residents.
Meanwhile, the perpetrators of the October 7 attack, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), faced an uncertain future. Although they managed to endure the Israeli military onslaught, the price paid by the Palestinians, in political and humanitarian terms was immense. This raised profound questions about the tactics employed by Hamas and PIJ. The October 7 attack and the subsequent war proved to be the most catastrophic episode in the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict, likely extinguishing any remaining prospects for a political resolution in the foreseeable future. The situation underscores a grim reality for Palestinians, who continue to grapple with statelessness and a belligerent Israel unwilling to compromise.
The Israel-Hamas war preoccupied the world as the Israeli onslaught on the Gaza Strip resulted in mounting casualties, with the death toll reaching 46,000 by December 2024, the majority being civilians, including women and children. The humanitarian cost of Israel’s military campaign to defeat and decimate Hamas and secure its southern border was staggering, leaving a lasting scar on Israeli politics and international relations.
However, Israel’s capability to carry out high-profile assassinations—such as those of Hamas political chief Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran in July, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut in September, and the suspected mastermind of the October 7 attack, Yahya Sinwar, in the Gaza Strip in October—helped restore a degree of military invincibility lost due to the October 7 attack. Further, the ability to simultaneously fight on multiple fronts, including full-scale wars in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon and carrying out bombings in Syria, Iraq, Iran and Yemen, underlined the Israeli military capabilities and the political will to fight. Notably, Israel could sustain the war due to the active military, political and financial support from the United States and its other regional and international allies.
Role of Iran
While the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hezbollah wars dragged on, a significant question emerged regarding Iran’s role in supporting militant groups across the region and the devastating consequences of such support. The conflict and its catastrophic outcomes called into question Iran’s regional policy and its effectiveness in securing the Islamic Republic’s strategic goals.
The clashes with Israel in April and October starkly exposed Iran’s military weaknesses when compared to Israel. Moreover, Iran’s inability to significantly alter the trajectory of the war in the Gaza Strip, despite mobilizing the “axis of resistance” through Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen to bolster Hamas’s efforts against the Israeli military, highlighted its limitations. This failure underscored Iran’s vulnerabilities in challenging the US-led regional order and raised doubts about its capacity to assert influence effectively in the face of escalating conflicts.
In the meantime, Iran grappled with significant internal challenges stemming from an economic downturn largely driven by devastating US and international sanctions over its nuclear programme. The situation worsened following the tragic death of President Ebrahim Raisi, his Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and several other national and local leaders in a helicopter crash in northwest Iran in May. This incident not only deepened the country’s political instability but also complicated an already looming succession crisis, as Raisi had been widely regarded as a potential successor to the ageing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The political turmoil was further highlighted by record-low voter turnouts in the parliamentary and presidential elections held in March and June-July, respectively. These dismal figures underscored the mounting political challenges facing Iran and reflected a growing sense of public disillusionment with the country’s leadership amidst its ongoing crises.
India’s primary focus will include energy security, the safety and welfare of Indian expatriates, maritime security, counter-terrorism, and defence and security cooperation
Arab Gulf States
Amidst the ongoing regional crisis, the role of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—particularly Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar—along with Egypt, Jordan, and Türkiye, drew significant attention. Saudi Arabia’s attempts to forge a united Arab and Islamic response to the Gaza Strip crisis did not yield substantive results. However, the ability of regional Arab powers to remain focused on their developmental agendas despite the war in Gaza was noteworthy.
Saudi Arabia and its GCC and Arab partners continued implementing internal reforms while also taking a firm stance against Israeli military operations in the embattled Gaza Strip. Egypt and Qatar emerged as key facilitators of diplomatic efforts, working alongside the United States to broker a ceasefire and ultimately bring the war to an end. These efforts led to a ceasefire in Lebanon by November, and optimism grew for a truce in the Gaza Strip before Donald Trump’s return to the White House on January 20, 2025.
Fall of Assad in Syria
While global attention remained fixated on the Gaza Strip and its regional and international implications, Syria underwent an unprecedented and historic transformation in December 2024. The fall of the Assad regime, following a devastating decade-long civil war, marked a seismic shift in the region. This development further weakened Iran’s “axis of resistance” and cast the future of millions of Syrians into uncertainty.
The new leadership in Syria, now under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its figurehead Ahmed al-Sharaa, widely known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani throughout most of the civil war, faces the monumental challenge of governing a fractured nation and forging a better future for its people. Although initial rhetoric from the new administration has inspired cautious optimism, the task ahead is daunting.
While the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hezbollah wars dragged on, a significant question emerged regarding Iran’s role in supporting militant groups across the region and the devastating conse-quences of such support
Türkiye, which has long supported HTS and other armed factions, has gained significant leverage in shaping Syria’s internal affairs. However, its persistent inability to reconcile with Kurdish political aspirations is likely to generate serious tensions, further destabilising the country. These unresolved conflicts could have devastating consequences for Syrians, who continue to endure the aftershocks of years of war and displacement.
India’s Strengthening Engagements with the Middle East
Amidst the evolving political and geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, India has continued to strengthen its partnerships and deepen strategic cooperation with like-minded regional countries. Relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—have flourished, expanding into diverse areas such as defence collaborations, security cooperation, military-to-military ties, space exploration, joint manufacturing of military equipment, and coastal and maritime security.
In a historic diplomatic outreach, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Kuwait on December 21-22, 2024, marking the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to the Gulf state since Indira Gandhi’s trip in 1981. Earlier in February, he had also visited Qatar and the UAE. These high-profile visits underscored India’s unwavering commitment to fostering robust economic, diplomatic, and strategic ties with the GCC nations, which remain central to India’s Middle East policy.
Additionally, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar undertook numerous visits to the region, reflecting India’s sustained diplomatic engagements. His trips included Iran in January, Kuwait in August, Saudi Arabia in September, the UAE in both June and November, Qatar in June and December, and Bahrain in December. These visits, alongside several other ministerial exchanges between India and Middle Eastern countries, signify the deepening of strategic partnerships and the growing importance of the region in India’s foreign policy.
Challenges and Opportunities for India
The Middle East’s regional geopolitics is poised to remain volatile in the coming months and years as the ramifications of the Gaza war continue to unfold. This situation presents both significant challenges and opportunities for India.
Challenges will arise from ongoing conflicts, radicalism, terrorism, and potential internal unrest in countries like Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. These issues could impact regional stability and disrupt India’s economic and strategic interests in the region.
However, opportunities lie in the economic, political, and strategic domains. India’s continued efforts to strengthen partnerships with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt, improve ties with Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait, and rebuild relations with Türkiye will yield dividends. These efforts will enable India to leverage regional cooperation for mutual benefits.
India’s focus will remain on deepening geoeconomic and strategic partnerships. Key objectives include successfully realigning the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), ensuring energy and maritime security, and further bolstering strategic, defence, and security collaborations with regional partners.
–The author is an Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
