It was a tense moment on June 4 for the Bhartiya Janata Party and its allies in the NDA camp when it seemed that the Modi magic of the last decade had faded into oblivion. In a nail-biting contest that was thrilling enough to keep the most disinterested people in politics on the edge of their chairs, the NDA coalition won the election, albeit with a lesser majority.
Nevertheless, the victory of the NDA coalition signalled policy continuity and policy stability for a historic third term. In this context, it has become necessary to analyse how India under NDA 3.0 or Modi 3.0 will come to influence its ties with the West, which has emerged as an increasingly important partner in almost every sector and field possible. At the same time, several uneasy historical questions need to be answered ensuring that there are no hurdles to the full flourishment of the ties.
Historical Nature of Ties
The West, a colloquial term for Western civilisation, has a historical relationship with Oriental civilisations, especially India. India’s ties with the West date back to the days of the Mauryan Empire when Megasthanes, the author of the Indica, served as the ambassador of the Greek emperor Seleucus Nicator. The centuries passed and the ties took a more commercial and financial turn with Indian exports of spices, porcelain and clothing becoming especially important in the West.
Fast forward to the Middle Ages, the voyage of Vasco Da Gama to Kerala in 1498 was a landmark moment in the evolution of the maritime route to India. Unfortunately, this heralded one of the darkest chapters in the history of the world – the age of Discovery or Exploration that birthed the age of colonialism and imperialism. During this period, the Western countries, particularly Portugal, Spain and England established colonial empires across the world by colonising the continents of Asia, Africa and Latin America, resulting in the wiping out of several indigenous civilisations and the ensuing enslavement of millions of people, something that Supreme Court advocate J Sai Deepak in his book India, That is Bharat has brilliantly explored. This colonial ghost is still affecting India’s relationship with the West today.
Modi Govt 3.0 is expected to prioritise strengthening ties with the West to combat China, which is bullying its neighbours in the South China Sea region and also in the Indian Ocean Region. China’s BRI, which spans over a hundred countries, aims to develop a global network of infrastructure & energy projects, especially roads and railways
PIO – Crucial Linkage
India has the largest diasporic population in the world, with a substantial portion living in the West where they are either full-fledged citizens or are working. These Persons of Indian Origin or Indian citizens have played a crucial role in improving ties with the West across various sectors and exporting India’s soft power, especially Indic folk and film songs and films, Yoga, and Indian food. Many Indian individuals have risen to top positions in their host countries not only in the field of the corporate world but also in other sectors such as academia, arts, politics and finance. Some notable names include Rishi Sunak, Ajay Banga, and Ashutosh Varshney.
Dealing with China
After the end of the Cold War, there was a brief period of US unipolarity in the global political order. It was felt that China could be co-opted as a partner with the West to preserve the ‘liberal world order’. However, China played it shrewdly, following the strategy of Deng Xiaoping’s open-door policy and growing quietly, it decided to unleash the animal spirits in its economy. Over the next decade, China emerged as the second largest economy in the world, which is now seen rivalling the Western world order led by the United States.
In light of such a situation, India under Modi 3.0 is expected to prioritise strengthening ties with the West to combat China, which has become increasingly assertive around the world, the archetypal sign of this is the BRI or Belt & Road Initiative which spans over a hundred countries and is aimed at developing a massive global interconnected network of infrastructure & energy projects, especially roads and railways.
However, the predatory nature of the loans coupled with an extremely high rate of interest on the loans has sparked concerns among various countries, especially the economically weaker Western countries. Hence, to counter this, during Bharat’s G20 presidency in 2023, India and the West launched the IMEC or India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. Apart from this, the European Union launched the Global Gateway Plan.
In the technology sector, China is a de-facto leader in global technologies, especially AI or Artificial Intelligence. Hence, a key focus of the Modi government’s relationship with the West will be collaboration on new and emerging technologies by launching the National AI Mission. The Modi government has made its intentions clear that it is committed to harnessing the potential of AI for domestic purposes and promoting global governance.
Defence is a key area where Bhartiya-Western interests converge, especially in the Indo-Pacific region. China, thanks to its formidable naval arsenal, has been bullying its Asian neighbours in the South China Sea region and also in the Indian Ocean Region, which is in India’s backyard.
Hence, the Modi government should focus on strengthening naval collaboration at the institutional and ground levels. The objective must not be restricted to the commitment to ensure freedom of navigation, but also to ensure the exploration of the major oceanic waterbed for potential critical minerals. The Indian Ocean is one such region, which is the hotspot of many critical minerals such as cobalt, silicon and molybdenum. These minerals are required in manufacturing critical articles such as solar panels and electric vehicles and are also used for making smartphones and other vital electronic appliances.
Defence and Strategic Collaboration
A crucial component of Indo-West ties in the Modi 3.0 era is in the area of defence. India is one of the fastest-growing defence markets in the world. However, India has the unfortunate image of being the world’s largest importer of weapons in the last decade. Slowly this has begun to change with New Delhi’s focus on autarky in defence development. However, to fill the short-term critical gaps, collaboration with like-minded partners is of utmost importance. This void can be filled up by India’s defence partners from the West. India already has strong defence relations with France, Israel and the United States. The items of use include artilleries, fighter jets, and assault rifles. However, the focus must now be on new and emerging areas that have redefined warfare – offensive and defensive cyberspace capabilities. In light of this position, India and the West must focus on enhancing the defence capabilities in the realm of AI, especially on enhancing the potentiality of killer robots and UCAV or unmanned combat aerial vehicles.
Perhaps collaboration on arming UAVs like Tapas with AGM-114 or Helina and Nag missiles with technology transfer from the West or collaboration for the development of indigenous technology with technical expertise from established defence partners from the West is a viable option. Enhancing counter-terrorism and narco-terrorism, and curbing human trafficking via institutional channels like Interpol and the relevant agencies of the UN will form a key part of defence collaborations.
Another key area is strategic affairs or foreign policy. India, which is otherwise known for exercising the policy of strategic autonomy, will find it essential to collaborate with its partners from the West on issues such as securing energy interests and finding a consensus on global peace and security. This is evident from the fact that despite buying humongous amounts of cheap crude oil from Russia, there has been, at best, muted criticism of India from the West, serving as a testimony to the increasing heft Bharat enjoys in the strategic realm. On issues like the Israel-Hamas and Ukraine-Russia war, India and the West have largely agreed on the need to ensure immediate ceasefire in the conflict zones and resolution of all conflicts by peaceful and diplomatic means. This is a part of India’s constitutional commitment to upholding international peace and security, outlined in Article 51 of the Directive Principles of State Policy section of the Indian constitution.
Modi 3.0 will try to find common ground on resolving and promoting national interests while balancing its commitment to the world in general and the West in particular.
The shadow of colonialism continues to haunt the relationship between the former colonies and colonial masters. The West does owe historic responsibility for its actions of the past if it is serious about improving ties with India. Modi Government 3.0 must get justice for the hundreds of thousands of victims of Western imperialism and colonialism
Commitment to a Sustainable Planet
The biggest threat to humankind today is climate change and global warming. In this context, India and the West must collaborate, especially in green finance, green credit and the mutual development of sustainable projects. However, what Modi 3.0 must do is remind the West that they bear historical responsibility for messing up the climate, which was underlined in the historic Kyoto Protocol of 1997.
Modi 3.0 may likely seek the transfer of technology and a substantial portion of the $100 billion climate finance that was agreed to by the West at the COP 21 summit in Paris, in 2015. Having highlighted the need for India to ask the West to do its share of weight lifting, Modi 3.0 must focus, on its part, on bringing to the global table the indigenous climate preservation practices that the various Indic faiths practised and continue to practise. In doing so, Bharat can offer Europe a new approach that doesn’t look at the environment as a commodity but deifies it, sees it as an equal partner and reveres it, to the point of developing a hybrid approach of not only worshipping nature but integrating new and cutting edge technology in developing new climate-friendly commodities to deal with the existential menace of climate change and global warming.
Ghost of Colonialism
While colonialism may be long dead, its shadow continues to haunt the relationship of the former colonies and colonial masters. The turbulent nature of France’s relationship with its former West African allies is a testimony to this. The West bears a historic responsibility to the Oriental world to atone for the sins it committed to our ancestors during the Age of Discovery and Age of Colonialism.
This is especially applicable to countries like India, which had to face close to four centuries of colonial humiliation, apart from the nearly two centuries of British rule. The erstwhile colonial countries must begin by expressing regret over their conduct towards their subject populations in India. Addressing the issue of reparations is another important question, something that former diplomat and prolific writer and politician Shashi Tharoor has emphasised time and again. This agenda must be pursued actively by Modi Government 3.0 to get justice for the hundreds of thousands of victims of Western imperialism and colonialism.
The West does owe historic responsibility for its actions of the past if it is serious about improving ties with India.
Hence, it is clear that Modi 3.0 must spawn new areas of cooperation with the West. Going forward the West will play a key role in enhancing India’s global aspirations in a win-win partnership that is of pivotal importance for the future trajectory, not only of Bharat and the West but entire humankind.
– The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
