“The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked,” said John Mearsheimer, a geopolitical scholar, in 2015.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has entered 26th day. But there seems to be neither victory for Russia nor a respite for Ukraine. Russia cannot declare victory until Kyiv falls and there are very remote chances of its surrender in the immediate future. The war is stalemated for the time being. With the aid and assistance provided by the EU and the United States, coupled with stiff resistance by the Ukrainian forces and residents of Kyiv, the job of the Russian Army to capture Kyiv is not only difficult but seems next to impossible. A negotiated settlement is the only answer, whether now or a year later. There are obvious lessons in the offing, which the war has thrown up.
Strategically speaking, global geopolitics is under transformation. The first casualty of this process of transformation would be United Nations. The organisation was conceived with the purpose of ushering peace and harmony in the world. However, 77 years have gone by but it has failed to prevent war and military conflicts. It is toothless and impotent to implement its resolutions. It needs overhauling or even total replacement. If it is not done, it will meet the same fate as that of the League of Nations.
High time to free UN
As a matter of fact, the UN needs to be freed from the hegemony of the Big Five: the so-called five permanent members of the UNSC (United Nations Security Council), who have a veto power to shoot down any progressive proposal. The veto power is not only an encroachment upon the right of equality of other nations but also a hindrance to world peace. It is time to bring the world body out of the grip of the Big Five.
A big lesson from the Ukraine war is that a nation has to stand on its own to protect its sovereignty. There are two major lessons. First, living next to a big shark, a small fish cannot afford enmity with it. Secondly, while in the vicinity of a big shark, prepare yourself for self-protection. Both these lessons come out clearly from what happened to Ukraine. Its intention to hobnob with the US-NATO was an act of enmity with Russia, who could ill-afford enemy at its doorsteps. At the same time, it was obvious that dependence on others was a ‘certain-defeat mechanism’. What made Ukraine hang on is its determination to resist in the cities. As long as the population centres of Ukraine fight it out, it provides security and continuity to its sovereignty.
The reluctance of the Russian Army to fight in the built-up areas, due to various reasons, is a sign of ‘victory denied’. This reluctance could be due to defence potential of concrete buildings in the urbanised jungle of Ukraine. The example of the fight in the southern city of Mariupol is worth noting. Despite mercilessly bombing from the beginning of the war, Russia has not been able to bring Ukraine under its control.
Victory denied
It is obvious that unless resistance was fully neutralised, there cannot be a victory for Russia. Its chances seem remote. Take the case of Kyiv. It is spread over an area of 839 sq km with a population of about five million. Even if half the population (mostly children, women and aged) have left, there is a good enough number of the able-bodied 2.5 million population to stop its fall. What goes in favour of defenders of Kyiv is the existence of around five lakh concrete buildings available to fight the advancing Russians.
Besides, underground shelters, plenty since the Second World War, add to the survivability of Kyiv from the Russian Missile onslaught. This ensures that it would not only sustain but prolong the ‘will of the people of Kyiv to resist’. And unless Kyiv falls, victory will be denied to Russia. The prolonged encirclement of Kyiv will have an equally adverse impact on Russia as well.
Living next to a big shark, a small fish cannot afford enmity with it. Still, if a nation is in the vicinity of a big shark, then it should prepare itself for self-protection
The nuclear option remains the only alternative to reduce Kyiv to ashes. It would have serious environmental repercussions for not only Kyiv and Ukraine but also for Belarus and Russia as well. Would Vladimir Putin use this option? Reports are emerging that he might be contemplating it, if negotiations fail. It is learnt that Putin has already moved his family to a nuclear shelter in Siberia. The war has entered a dangerous phase – all due to strategic competition of two power blocks.
New bi-polar world
Another point for consideration is the re-emergence of a ‘bi-polar’ world. The two opposing groups would be China-Russia on one side and the US-EU on the other. This time, it would make it difficult for nations, like India, to exercise the option of neutrality or non-alignment. The Afro-Asian nations would have to find a third option to rally around India, advocating neutrality. It would be tough going but it would pay handsomely in the long run.
The helplessness of the US and EU to actively support Ukraine is another indication of the declining power of the West. The US was desperately trying to checkmate China but this action by Russia has exposed the chinks in its armour. No nation would blindly trust the US and West in future. Ukraine was enticed and encouraged to crave NATO membership. Russia has long resented it. No doubts that the Russian concentration of forces on the Ukraine border for over three months before the invasion was a warning to Ukraine and the West to mend their fences. But Ukraine not only insisted on joining NATO but it is also alleged that it had 13 biological laboratories (bio labs), funded by the US, operating in Ukraine. This Eastward push by NATO was certainly unacceptable to Russia to allow the enemy at its doorstep. And when it struck, the US and EU only watched helplessly. The threat of use of WsMD by Putin was enough to keep them away. Ukraine was not another Iraq where the US could intervene after manipulating the UN. The die is cast about its sliding power.
Future wars
Militarily speaking, future wars will be characterised by the dominant role of BVR (Beyond Visual Range) and ‘stand away’ weapon systems. Conventional missiles – cruise, ballistic and hypersonic – would play a vital role to soften up the intended targets. The long-range artillery and drones would supplement the missile efforts from closer distances.
The nuclear option remains the only alternative for Russia to reduce Kyiv to ashes. But it would have serious environmental repercussions for not only Kyiv but also for Belarus and Russia
Encirclement and destroying the habitats/cities by firepower would be the chosen tactics of invaders. Further, the attacking forces would have to hone their skills to fight in the built-up areas (FIBUA). It is necessary because even after the physical destruction of habitat, there would be a need to show ‘Boots on Ground’.
Defenders would have to beef up the civil defence systems to prevent the attackers’ entry into the built-up areas. The threat of NBC warfare would necessitate the requirement of nuclear and underground shelters. A 12 KT nuclear bomb (of the type dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki) can cause heavy damage up to a radius of 10-12 km. And today, nuclear nations have more deadly arsenals to the extent of 100 megatons, in their custody. They make Hiroshima bomb a toy. There are reports of the use of vacuum bombs by Russia. They are more dangerous because they suck in all the oxygen from the air.
Invisible wars
Biological weapons of the type of coronavirus have also heralded an era of ‘invisible wars’. The US and China are being accused of carrying out tremendous research on bio-weapons. Russia has accused the US of operating bio labs in Ukraine. This is another reason for invasion to demolish them. China has already been accused of unleashing the Wuhan virus – though the Wuhan Laboratory was funded by the US.
There are reports of the use of vacuum bombs by Russia, which are dangerous because they suck oxygen from the air
With the various revolutions in military technology, weapon systems have developed longer ranges, deadly lethality and precision accuracy. Thus, the ‘front and rear’ of the battlefields have disappeared. War is no more ‘monkey dancing’ of soldiers on/across the borders. The complete geographical area of a nation or a group of nations is the battle zone. Each citizen of a nation is a soldier in his/her own way. This reality has to sink in everyone. Citizens of Ukraine are learning this now.
In conclusion, one can say that every nation will have to take stock of such awful developments in preparing for war. An effective world organisation is needed to checkmate the hegemonistic activities of the powerful nations. Besides, each nation will have to prepare itself for an accidental or otherwise use of WsMD by its adversaries. What is more, the need for healthcare and medical facilities will increase manifold. The coronavirus caught the entire world unprepared. Helplessness was writ large everywhere. It has been over two years and the world has still not recovered. It is time to ponder over these issues for humanity to survive.
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
