India has been an abode for cultural heritage, vibrant human potential, and a thriving democracy with a blessed geography. However, the nation’s vision for Viksit Bharat as a global destination for peace, growth and security can only be realised if we ensure a ‘Suraksit Bharat’, a safe and secure India. Security forms the foundation on which the pillars of diplomacy and the development of the country rest. It extends beyond the protection of borders to the internal stability of the nation, which remains a bigger challenge.
Kautilya’s Theory of Four Types of Threats
Kautilya, an ancient Indian scholar and visionary strategist, provided insights on statecraft and threats that remain timeless even today. Viksit Bharat will have to navigate these complexities of evolving geopolitics and national security threats. Kautilya’s ‘Arthashastra’ identified four types of diverse and interconnected threats that can destabilise a nation-state. Today India faces them all.
- Internal Threats (Aabhyantarik Shatrus)
- External Threats (Bahya Shatrus)
- Internally Abetted External Threats (Aabhyantarik Shatruyon Se Prerit Bahya Shatrus)
- Externally Abetted Internal Threats (Bahya Shatruyon Se Prerit Aabhyantarik Shatrus)
Viksit Bharat’s Threat Matrix
Internal Threats (Aabhyantarik Shatrus): Internal threats originate within the nation and include social, political, economic, and ideological challenges. They internally destabilise the nation.
- Social Fissures and Communal Faultlines: Diversity is a hallmark of India’s strength, but diversity can also be a faultline of internal strife. The rise of communal forces, caste-based politics, and religious polarisation have created deep fissures in society. These social faultlines have orchestrated agitations that can be exploited by adversaries to weaken the nation. Misinformation, deepfakes and hate speeches, particularly through social media, add fuel to the fire, which can derail the path of Viksit Bharat.
- Political Instability and Coalition Politics: While India is a vibrant democracy, the political landscape remains challenging. Coalition politics and regional parties’ dominance contribute to instability and the ability to make strong decisions. Political corruption and administrative lethargy undermine governance, erode public trust, impact development and weaken the nation. Further criminalisation of politics and anti-national elements finding space is a dangerous development. India remains policy and procedures oriented not outcome oriented.
India’s borders are turbulent, with two inimical nuclear-armed powers China and Pakistan posing military threats. China’s increasing signature in South Asia poses challenges for Viksit Bharat, as do the economic fallout of ongoing conflicts in Europe and West Asia.
- Economic Inequalities and Unemployment: Economic inequality and low PCI pose major challenges for India. The widening gap between the haves and the have-nots is leading to social unrest and a rural-urban divide. Job insecurity and rising unemployment among the youth fuel frustration and make them vulnerable to being misled. Poverty, unemployment and inequality are a dangerous concoction.
- Extremism and Radicalisation: The trajectory of extremism, whether religious or ethnic, poses a major threat to the internal security matrix. Extremist ideologies are the foundation of radicalisation and terrorism. The threat of radicalisation and extremist indoctrination be it through education, social media or forced conversions, especially in areas with high levels of poverty and unemployment, remain the most glaring threat to the society and nation.
External Threats (Bahya Shatrus): External threats such as military aggression, economic warfare, cyber-attacks, and diplomatic isolation originate from transborder but impact national security.
- Military Aggression from Hostile Neighbourhood: India’s borders are turbulent, with two inimical nuclear-armed powers China and Pakistan posing military threats. The Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China and the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan remain tripwires. China’s salami slicing and Pakistan’s proxy war are constant sources of external threats that could escalate into a conflict. Pakistan driven by the combo of 3 M’s – Military, Mullah and Militants – churns political instability, economic crises and a threat to India. The possibility of a two-front war, with China and Pakistan combined, is a reality that India must be prepared for.
The Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan, and Sheikh Hasina’s ouster in Bangladesh in August this year, have added to the region’s volatility. Bangladesh is now in turmoil, with the potential rise of Islamists and the targeting of minorities, posing new challenges to India. The other South Asian neighbours too are in a ‘blow hot – blow cold’ mode.
- Terrorism: Cross-border terrorism, particularly from state-sponsored Pakistan, has resulted in numerous attacks on Indian soil, aiming to destabilise the country. The rise of radical Islamist forces in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and the Maldives, adds another layer of concern. The spillover potential for this extremism could destabilise India and necessitate urgent countermeasures.
- Cyber Warfare and Espionage: Digital India is vulnerable to cyber-attacks from state and non-state actors and has already witnessed several such intrusions in recent times. These attacks target critical power grids, infrastructure, financial systems, health care, and communication networks, causing extensive disruption. Espionage by hostile foreign powers is another significant threat that can compromise national security and economic interests. Deepfakes and cyber frauds remain prevalent.
- Economic and Diplomatic Isolation: Hostile foreign powers can use sanctions, trade restrictions, and diplomatic pressure to weaken India’s economic stability. India’s growing status in the global arena makes it a target, particularly from nations that see India’s rise as a threat to their global stature. The instabilities in South Asia, and the setback in India-China ties since the Galwan 2020, further complicate regional stability. China’s increasing signature in South Asia poses challenges for Viksit Bharat, as do the economic fallout of ongoing conflicts in Europe and West Asia.
Addressing socio-economic disparities is essential for mitigating internal threats. Poverty, unemployment and inequality are a dangerous concoction. Focus on inclusive development, education, secularism and job opportunities can deny the faultlines that adversaries could exploit.
Internally Abetted External Threats (Aabhyantarik Shatruyon Se Prerit Bahya Shatrus).
Internally abetted external threats involve internal actors supporting or collaborating with external enemies to undermine national security. This highlights the complex interplay between internal dissent and external proxy play.
- Insurgency Movements: Insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir and the Northeast, are largely abetted by external actors. These insurgencies, while embedded in local grievances, are frequently fuelled by foreign powers that seek to destabilise India. The insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir has been fuelled by Pakistan’s support to militant groups, while China plays its game in fuelling NE insurgency.
- Left-Wing Extremism (Naxalism): While Naxalism is primarily an internal issue, external actors have provided support to exploit the faultlines. The Naxalite insurgency is rooted in issues of land rights, poverty, and social inequality, but external support does aggravate the conflict and fuel the violence.
- Espionage and Subversion by Foreign Powers: Foreign powers often seek to subvert national security by recruiting anti-nationals within the country to instigate Espionage activities can lead to compromising national security. Subversion, through the spread of propaganda or the funding of anti-national activities, by foreign powers undermines the path to Viksit Bharat.
- Oxygen to Khalistan Movement: Some nations including Canada and Pakistan are encouraging separatist forces of pro-Khalistan factions to fuel internal disturbances.
Externally Abetted Internal Threats (Bahya Shatruyon Se Prerit Aabhyantarik Shatrus)
Externally abetted internal threats involve external actors influencing or supporting internal forces within the country to destabilise it.
- Funding and Arming of Terrorist Groups: One of the most significant externally abetted internal threats is the financing, arming and logistic support to domestic terrorist groups with the intent of destabilising India. The flow of funds and weapons increases their capacity to carry out terror attacks, leading to greater internal turbulence.
- Influence Operations and Propaganda: External inimical powers often engage in influence operations, which involve the dissemination of false information, the manipulation of narratives, and the funding to media outlets or NGOs with an anti-national agenda. The goal is to create fissures within Indian society, undermine the government, and weaken the nation. India has witnessed increasing influence operations in recent times, which can subtly erode the social fabric of the nation.
- Subversion of Democratic Processes: The subversion of democratic processes by external actors is another significant threat. Foreign powers have attempted to influence elections, support specific political parties or agitations, or undermine the legitimacy of the electoral process. Such activities lead to political instability, erode democratic institutions, and create a climate of uncertainty and unrest.
Strategies for Ensuring a Suraksit Bharat
To counter these threats India must adopt a multi-pronged integrated approach by strengthening all domains under threat as identified by Kautilya.
Strengthening Internal Domain
- Social Cohesion and Inclusive Development: Promoting social cohesion and addressing socio-economic disparities are essential for mitigating internal threats. Policies that focus on inclusive development, education, secularism and job opportunities can deny the faultlines that adversaries could exploit.
- Political and Administrative Reforms: Instilling greater accountability with responsibility, enhancing transparency, and strengthening grassroots governance are key to nation-building and national security.
- Counter-Radicalisation Strategies: Governments must monitor and counter the spread of radical ideologies online. Collaboration with community leaders and investing in non-toxic quality education can play a vital role in preventing radicalisation.
- One India One Rule. Abolish acts like Wakf from its retrospective date introduced, due to its unconstitutionality and discriminatory policies.
Misinformation, deepfakes and hate speeches, particularly through social media, can derail the path of Viksit Bharat. India is susceptible to misinformation and vulnerable to information warfare of adversaries. Information warfare remains a weakness of our defence forces.
Enhancing External Defence Capabilities
- Modernising the Military: India must continue to modernise its military to counter external threats with financial reforms and greater budgetary allocation. The politicisation of the military or petty politics over national security must be a big NO. Investing in advanced technology, strengthening cyber defence, and enhancing capabilities in space and electronic warfare must find greater space. The emphasis must not only be on self-reliance and self-sufficiency but creating a defence industrial base with indigenous character and adequacy of war stamina. The differential with China must be minimised for deterrence.
- Strengthening Border Security: Securing India’s borders is paramount to preventing infiltration and cross-border terrorism. Enhanced coordination within multiple agencies based on the ‘one border one force’ ethos with clear command and control, can help in addressing transnational threats. The PMF and CAPF must also be modernised and better trained for countering future threats.
- Countering War of Narratives: India is the most susceptible nation to misinformation, disinformation and malinformation. Thus, India is vulnerable to information warfare of the adversary and social media fakes. Information warfare remains a weakness of our defence forces. Securing the nation and insulating its citizens requires both education and strong policies to curb this malice. Further, the IT cells for petty politics generate false narratives which are jumped upon by media channels that focus on sensationalisation or are paid to generate a fixed theme.
Fostering Strategic Partnerships
- Regional Cooperation and Multilateralism: India should continue to engage with regional organizations to promote stability and cooperation. Strengthening ties with ASEAN, and BIMSTEC, through platforms like the Quad is essential.
- Diplomatic Engagement and Global Leadership: India’s growing global stature provides it with an opportunity to take on a leadership role in shaping international policies and institutions. It must also be seen as a nation that facilitates global peace and harmony.
- National Citizens Security Culture: As India progresses towards the vision of Viksit Bharat, fostering a national citizen security culture becomes a collective responsibility. “Chaukas Bharat – Suraksit Bharat – Viksit Bharat” must be the chorus. Nurturing a culture of security and solidarity will help in creating safer and more inclusive societies. Initiatives in this regard by the Central Association of Private Security (CAPSI) on ‘National Citizens Security Culture’ and building an ‘Integrated Citizens Security Grid’ architecture must find both support and collaboration.
Conclusion
There can be no Viksit Bharat without Suraksit Bharat. Suraksit Bharat involves safeguarding internal stability, preserving social cohesion, and preparing for future challenges besides external threats. Kautilya’s ancient wisdom reminds us that threats are multifaceted and require a holistic approach. Today a potential Viksit Bharat faces them all. A Suraksit Bharat will be the foundation for a prosperous and thriving India, a nation that not only protects its citizens but also inspires the world. The nation must act, now.
The author, a PVSM, AVSM, VSM has had an illustrious career spanning nearly four decades. A distinguished Armoured Corps officer, he has served in various prestigious staff and command appointments including Commander Independent Armoured Brigade, ADG PP, GOC Armoured Division and GOC Strike 1. The officer retired as DG Mechanised Forces in December 2017 during which he was the architect to initiate process for reintroduction of Light Tank and Chairman on the study on C5ISR for Indian Army. Subsequently he was Consultant MoD/OFB from 2018 to 2020. He is also a reputed defence analyst, a motivational speaker and prolific writer on matters of military, defence technology and national security. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily carry the views of Raksha Anirveda
