Over the years India’s nuclear policy has evolved considerably, reflecting a calibrated strategic posture of restraint and resolve. Fundamentally, India’s nuclear stance is still shaped by its geopolitical environment as it remains flanked between two nuclear adversaries. Pakistan’s policy of First Use and nuclear brinkmanship, and China’s conditional No First Use (NFU) posture, and nuclear platform diversification have kept the nuclear discourse active. To ensure that India’s deterrence remains credible, India has undertaken a dynamic nuclear trajectory by undergoing periodic modernisation and upgradation of its capacities and capabilities.
A major influencing factor has been the technological breakthroughs over the years which have had a profound impact in reshaping nuclear deterrence in the region. This is not a novel phenomenon and historically, technological innovations and advancements have been responsible for shaping the course of Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMA); and both conventional and nuclear weapon systems have significantly been impacted by the Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDTs).
India has attempted to keep pace with and incorporate these critical emerging technologies through the modernisation of its triad. It has also tried to ensure a parity between its nuclear capabilities and the doctrinal requirements further; by remaining abreast of global developments and keeping pace with competitors thereby, it has tried to strengthen its nuclear deterrence.
Strengthening nuclear deterrence
Nuclear deterrence in strategic terms refers to the capability of a nation to prevent the adversary from initiating a nuclear or full-scale conventional war through a retaliatory nuclear attack.
There are two key modes of ensuring deterrence in a region. These are “deterrence by denial” or “deterrence by punishment”, and states can opt for either or some combination of both.
The three main elements of credible nuclear deterrence are – to have a credible nuclear force; to have the political and military will to use it, and a clear signaling of this will to adversaries and allies alike.
Therefore, to have credible nuclear deterrence it is essential to have a force structure, which not only complements the doctrine, but also encompasses modern weapon platforms, along with regular upgradation and modernisation to prevent a widening of the technological gap with the adversary. Over the years, India has tried to maintain nuclear deterrence by following these key fundamental tenets.
Over the years India’s nuclear policy has evolved considerably, reflecting a calibrated strategic posture of restraint and resolve. Fundamentally, India’s nuclear stance is still shaped by its geopolitical environment as it remains flanked between two nuclear adversaries
Modernisation of land-based missiles and air assets
A key part of military modernisation revolves around missiles programs and carriers. India’s missile programme began with the launch of its Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMPD) in 1983 under which major missile systems like Prithvi – the Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) System, and Agni – medium to long range ballistic missile systems – were developed.
It was also during this period that Surface to Air Missiles (SAMs) like Akash and Trishul along with the anti-tank Nag were developed. This initial period was followed by India and Russia’s joint-collaboration of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile.
Over the years, the Agni series has been a key pillar for India’s nuclear arsenal. The advanced version of this series is the AGNI-V with an increased range of over 5000 kms. India has also kept pace with the global trends, where missiles are now miniaturised and have become more precise over the years, with less CEP. They are also solid fueled and road mobile, to ensure quicker launch and enhance survivability.
Another new missile developed was named AGNI-P (Prime) and is a two-stage canisterised solid propellant ballistic missile with a dual redundant navigation and guidance system.[i]
In 2024 India also had the first successful flight test of the indigenously developed Agni-5 missile with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology.[ii] MIRV technology is particularly significant as it is not only a force multiplier but can also overcome Missile Defence.
If deployed in submarines it can strengthened a country’s nuclear triad by augmenting its second-strike capabilities thereby reinforcing deterrence. India has also developed its Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system and has started deploying the BMD Phase-I interceptors which can destroy missiles up to 2000kms.
On July 24, 2024, India also successfully flight-tested its Phase-II Ballistic Missile Defence System where the Phase-II AD, an Endo-atmospheric missile can defend against the Ballistic Missiles of the 5000 km class[iii].
This is especially significant because it is meant for neutralising many types of enemy ballistic missile threats in the altitude bracket of endo to low exo-atmospheric regions[iv].
Thus, it has the capability to neutralise missiles from both China and Pakistan, making it significantly important for India’s No First Use (NFU) posture as it will aid to some extent in absorbing the first strike.
For air assets, India’s Air Force has bombers, and aircrafts like Jaguar, Mirage 2000H which are nuclear missile capable. Additionally, new Rafale aircraft can also be used for the same purpose strengthening the air component of the nuclear triad. So, while theoretically India has been modernising its Air Force to keep pace with geopolitical requirements, in reality there remain some key concerns that need to be addressed.
For example, the number of aircrafts and timely upgradation of the equipment has been a persistent concern. Secondly, if one were to think about future prospects, one also needs to examine whether India requires a long-range stealth bomber like China’s H-20 or if its existing roster of aircrafts is sufficient.
Sea-based deterrence
Since India’s nuclear doctrine states a clear NFU posture, it is essential for India to have survivable potent second-strike capabilities that reduces adversarial intent and initial strike motivation.
For this purpose, maintaining credible deterrence and ensuring retaliation across every major domain, possessing a nuclear triad is a must. Sea-based nuclear assets especially those deployed in submarines, become that much more essential and significant in such a scenario.
A major influencing factor has been the technological breakthroughs over the years which have had a profound impact in reshaping nuclear deterrence in the region. This is not a novel phenomenon and historically, technological innovations and advancements have been responsible for shaping the course of Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMA); and both conventional and nuclear weapon systems have significantly been impacted by the Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDTs)
India has started developing this leg while independently trying to develop both nuclear power attack submarine (SSNs) and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBNs). India already had INS Arihant which is a nuclear capable submarine and recently also commissioned its second nuclear submarine INS Arighat which is capable of carrying K4 ballistic missile (a part of the K missile series).
This K4 missile is a major upgrade to the arsenal as the previous K15 missile on INS Arihant had a range of 750 Kms whereas the newer version of K4 has a 3500 Kms range. Another nuclear submarine INS Aridhaman is also expected to be commissioned within a few years.
Apart from this the Indian government also cleared Rs 40,000 crore for Project-77 which involves amongst other things the construction of two nuclear powered attack submarines (SSNs)[v].
Submarines are an important leg of the triad and hence it is essential to have an adequate number capable of swift retaliation, to ensure credible deterrence. All these projects will thus, over the years, strengthen India’s sea-based deterrence and its overall triad in the coming years.
In order to have better encrypted communications, India is also developing its second advanced Very Low Frequency (VLF) transmitting station in Vikarabad, Telangana. It already has one at Tirunelveli in Tamil Nadu but the development of the second one will provide India with round the clock communication 365 days in the year. This increases the overall stability as even if one station has to be shut down for maintenance, a backup is available for redundancies and any unforeseen eventualities.
To have credible nuclear deterrence it is essential to have a force structure, which not only complements the doctrine, but also encompasses modern weapon platforms, along with regular upgradation and modernisation to prevent a widening of the technological gap with the adversary.
Enhanced Command, Control, Communication, Computers (C4) & Intelligence Surveillance & Reconnaissance (ISR)
A key part of any military modernisation endeavour is the ability to keep-up with shifting C4ISR trends. This is a dynamic field and India has attempted to keep pace by constantly upgrading its C4ISR capabilities as well.
This becomes particularly significant in the case of India due to its NFU policy which requires a strong retaliatory response to be considered credible. For this, ensuring adequate quantity of weapon platforms alongside the robustness and survival of its systems and assets are paramount.
This includes the use of AI for ISR, dedicated miliary satellites for communications and early warning, as well as secure communication protocols, and a reduction of vulnerabilities to electronic and cyber-attacks.
Space is gaining salience both as a tool for anti-satellite warfare and also a major domain for real time information gathering. The latter is especially useful in the present age – as evinced by recent conflicts – and remains the key for successful combat as it provides situational awareness of adversary’s nuclear assets while warning of incoming missiles resulting in an activation of BMD systems.
A robust space system thus, could assist significantly in the country’s survivability while also strengthening its nuclear deterrence. However, this is a constant process and an ongoing challenge as emerging technologies will constantly test the limits of existing systems and protocols.
Over the years, India has tried to maintain nuclear deterrence by following these key fundamental tenets. A key part of military modernisation revolves around missiles programs and carriers. India’s missile programme began with the launch of its Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMPD) in 1983 under which major missile systems like Prithvi – the Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) System, and Agni – medium to long range ballistic missile systems – were developed
Emerging technological challenges
Emerging technologies like AI, Autonomous systems, cyber, hypersonic weapons, etc. are blurring established conventional and nuclear boundaries, thereby increasing unpredictability, and leading to new escalatory dynamics.
For example, dual use Hypersonic vehicles are escalatory in nature as their supersonic speed provides lesser time to the adversary for the decision making. Over and above the shrinking window of time, these dual use assets are also escalatory due to their very nature.
If one is unable to clearly distinguish between the conventional and nuclear missile, the situation may lead to warhead ambiguity resulting in mistaken identity and a presumption that the incoming missile might be a nuclear one.
The fear of this devastation could lead to an unintended escalation and equivalent retaliatory action with chances of an early use of nuclear weapons. Similarly, nuclear deterrence in the space domain is also tricky as on the one hand, space can assist in ISR capabilities. But on the other hand, for states which do not have advanced space capabilities it becomes a major disadvantage as their assets are vulnerable to early tracking and targeting, which would undermine its second-strike capabilities and adversely impact deterrence.
This threat also extends towards cyber networks, given the increasingly data driven nature of most platforms. Cyber threats have transcended beyond traditional breaches, as systems are more data driven now than before, making them vulnerable to data manipulation, leading to misinformation and disinformation.
Space is also gaining salience both as a tool for anti-satellite warfare and also a major domain for real time information gathering. The latter is especially useful in the present age – as evinced by recent conflicts – and remains the key for successful combat as it provides situational awareness of adversary’s nuclear assets while warning of incoming missiles resulting in an activation of BMD systems
India has undertaken measures to address these challenges, but this is still an ongoing process that becomes more complex with the emergence of every new technology.
Overall, India’s nuclear trajectory over time has tried to accomplish the dual purpose of firstly, maintaining a nuclear arsenal which is in accordance with its nuclear doctrine and secondly, ensuring it has modernised its nuclear weapons, while incorporating emerging technologies in order to prevent a widening of the strategic gap – especially with China.
While India has tested the technologies like hypersonic and MIRVs, it is essential that a timely induction of these weapon platforms also takes place. Further, it is not just the quality that will account for credibly deterrence but the quantity as well.
So, these weapons need to be inducted in adequate numbers in order to have a potent counter-value and counter-force targets, and these target numbers do play an important part thereby, consolidating a nation’s nuclear deterrence.
Refrences
[i]Government of India Press Information Bureau, New generation ballistic missile ‘Agni P’ successfully test-fired by DRDO, Posted On: 18 DEC 2021 12:33PM by PIB Delhi at https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1782960
[ii] Ministry of Defence, DRDO successfully conducts Mission Divyastra Indigenously developed Agni-5 missile makes maiden flight with MIRV, Posted On: 11 MAR 2024 8:02PM by PIB Delhi, at https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2013549
[iii] Ministry of Defence, DRDO successfully flight-tests Phase-II Ballistic Missile Defence System, Posted On: 24 JUL 2024 8:24PM by PIB Delhi at https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2036561
[iv] Ibid
[v] The Economic Times , “India’s nuclear submarine program gains momentum with new VLF facility and nuclear fleet to counter China”, Sun, 14 Oct 2024 at https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/indias-nuclear-submarine-program-gainsmomentum-with-new-vlf-facility-and-nuclear-fleet-to-counter-china/articleshow/114218667.cms
The writer is Director Projects & Events at CLAWS. Strategic Analyst specialises in nuclear issues and author of the book “Complexities & Challenges of Nuclear India”. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
