Prior to the end of the Cold War, societies were divided by ideological differences, such as the struggle between democracy and communism. In the last two decades or so, past paradigms became ineffective in explaining or predicting the reality of any emerging global political order. Now, with the world in a turmoil, recovering from the pandemic and being plunged into the Russia-Ukraine war, the setting is all the more convoluted, with new alliances having formed between nations or groups of nations, with mutual interests, not just in the economic or security domains, but also in overturning an international order that has long advantaged the West at their expense. It is, therefore, a new world order that is incubating under the rapidly changing geopolitical scenario.
A Brief History
Before 1500 AD, civilisations were separated geographically and the spread of ideas and technology took centuries. By 1500 AD, or thereabouts, evolution in ocean navigation by Western cultures led to rapid expansion and eventual domination of ideas, values, and religion, leading to colonialism and subjugation of the weaker civilisations/nations. As the twentieth century progressed, relations moved beyond the unidirectional influence of the West on the rest of the world. Instead, nations began bilateral or multilateral interaction directly or through international organisations, gradually becoming interdependent, with some of the Western nations even getting influenced by smaller, less-powerful nations around the world. However, the multi-directional interactions were not helpful in exemplifying a global political order or the notion of a single, universal culture. As the world became more modern, it simultaneously became less Western.
Religion is the societal factor that has filled the vacuum created by a loss of political ideology. An increased role and importance of religion in world politics also influenced the global political order. Major religions around the world experienced new surges in commitment, relevance, and practice by erstwhile casual believers. Religion getting involved in politics was also the result of increased communication among societies and cultures, creating bonds or friction. With the people asking for new sources of identity, new forms of stable community, and new sets of moral precepts, to provide them with a sense of meaning and purpose, turned to religion to satiate their needs.
Moving well into the twentieth century, the world experienced a decline in Western power and influence. There, however, are contrasting views on the West’s hold on power. One side argues that the West still has a monopoly on technological research and development, military strength, and economic consumption. The other side argues that the relative power and influence of Western countries is declining. Various traits of the Western decline can be summed up as follows:
- The current decline is a very slow process and hence, is not really an immediate threat to cause a major disruption.
- The decline of power does not occur as in a downward graph; it may reverse, speed up, or pause, as it has been seen, due to the varying geopolitical situations.
- The power of a State is controlled and influenced by the behaviour and decisions of those holding power (USA under Donald Trump!).
As the Western power has waned, there has been a relative rise in power and influence of non-Western countries. Analysts focussed on Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and China as those countries, which asserted their relevance through economic successes, displaying a decreasingly responsive stance to demands and interests from the West. The ability of Asian countries to successfully modernise and develop economically without adopting Western values supports Huntington’s assertion that the world is becoming more modernised, but less Westernised (Huntington: The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order).
Muslim societies, unlike Asian societies, have asserted societal identity through the reaffirmation and resurgence of religion. The resurgence of Islam “embodies the acceptance of modernity, rejection of Western culture, and the recommitment to Islam as the guide to life in the modern world” (Huntington). Religion is the primary factor that distinguishes Muslim politics and society from other countries. Other features that have contributed to the resurgence of Islam in society are: failure of State economies, the large young population, and the authoritarian style of governance.
The Emerging Order
During the Cold War, the bipolar world order enabled countries to identify themselves as either aligned or non-aligned. In the post-Cold War world order, countries were no longer able to easily categorise themselves and seemed to be suffering from an identity crisis. Although US veteran diplomat, Henry Kissinger, stated in a World Affairs Council Press Conference in 1994 that a new world order could not form without US participation, countries have got together with similar ancestry, religion, language, values, and institutions and have distanced themselves from those with different ones. Regional organisations have formed that reflect political and economic alliances, such as Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the European Union (EU); like-minded nations with common economic/security interests have also formed groups such as Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS), and the latest being Australia-UK-US (AUKUS).
It is not simple to comprehend the ‘new’ world order. Yes, America is in a decline, but America continues to remain a powerful country – economically, militarily, and technologically – but, once again, it is a fact that American global power has been eroding for some time. Donald Trump championing ‘America First’, led to isolationism and protectionism, where foreign commitments were limited to areas of vital US interest and economic nationalism, making the geopolitical allies and challengers alike, to pay close attention to its moves. A power shift amongst nations that began at the end of the Cold War has been accelerating this century with an increasing number of nations, asserting an independent and increasingly influential role in regional/global economic and security developments.
China threw down the gauntlet as the main challenger to America, but there are others too. The much-talked about US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, created intense competition from the three major rivals of America.
Russia, notwithstanding the severe sanctions against it for the annexation of Crimea, has been involved in a ‘Special military operation’ in Ukraine for more than a month, inviting new and more severe sanctions on itself. The current situation is slowly and steadily getting Russia and China into an embrace.
Iran is the other major challenger to American influence in the Middle East. After USA, under President Trump, unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA, the nuclear agreement of 2015, Iran has steadfastly refused to have face-to-face talks with America. Since it was America that had violated the terms of the Treaty, Iran insists that it should be the one to take the first steps for the restoration too; 12 rounds of indirect negotiations in Vienna have shown some progress, but Iran has doggedly demanded the lifting of sanctions as the first step. Meanwhile Iran, has continuously been increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium, and is willing to accept the punishing effects of the sanctions, rather than succumb to American pressure. Meanwhile, the Houthi rebels of Yemen, with the tacit support from Iran, have continued with their attacks on Saudi Arabia and UAE, with little or no action from USA.
India in the new World Order
India has found itself to be involved in the current geopolitical crisis, one not of its making, and hence, in a diplomatic quagmire, through which, it has successfully manoeuvred, so far! Close ties with both USA and Russia, which now, are at odds with each other, placed India in far from ideal circumstances. Over the last three decades or so, India has pursued a diverse range of partnerships, while preserving its strategic autonomy – different from the Nehruvian era non-alignment; during the bipolar Cold War, diplomatic activities served national interest, but with material weaknesses. It is not the same any longer, and the current autonomy, while akin to non-alignment to an extent, is without moralism, helping India to pursue the path towards its great-power aspirations, and from a position of strength.
There are several factors to suggest this hypothesis. First, consider Russia, once a great power, and today reduced to dependency on China. It would be naïve to think that Russia would not be concerned about this asymmetry. If Russia reacted as it has done in Ukraine due to the NATO knocking on its doors, would it sit twiddling its thumbs, while China makes inroads into Central Asia? India, as the largest purchaser of Russian arms, will, in probability, be used as a counter-weight in Russia’s future policies towards China. At the same time, India has shown to Russia that its support cannot be taken for granted; it has conveyed that the Russian aggression in Ukraine has imperilled Indian security interests, and has called for an end to hostilities as per the UN Charter.
The second factor is China. It is closely monitoring Russia’s global isolation and would definitely not want to antagonise USA and its EU allies, lest it suffer a similar fate. China will be careful to not instigate USA by offering military/economic assistance to Russia – a country which accounts for only two percent of its total trade – and invite retribution on itself from USA and the EU, much more important for it! China has its own problems – internal and external – with the West not showing any relaxation on its focus on Indo-Pacific, its main business city, Shanghai, under a severe lockdown, and Xi Jinping in preparation for an unprecedented third-term starting November this year. Wooing India, looking for shared global and bilateral common ground, could have been, in all likelihood, the reason for the recent uninvited visit to India, by its foreign minister.
The third factor is USA and the EU allies. In all its statements at the UN and in private engagements, India has made no bones about its position; it has specified that while it does not support the Russian forays into Ukraine, it has to look after its own interests, a language which USA well understands. The carefully worded statements from the US high echelons, with offers to minimise India’s dependence on Russia, and the US’ continued focus on Indo-Pacific to contain China, are a clear indication that the Indian stand is well-understood.
The fourth and last factor is India itself. A new Cold War may well be on the way. Russia in Ukraine, China’s implicit support to Russia’s misadventures, and the Western world displaying a united front, never seen earlier. Yet India, has displayed diplomatic acumen to pursue its own path of strategic autonomy. India, as aforementioned, has a wide canvas of economic/diplomatic investments: China, notwithstanding the security issues, is India’s largest source of imports, USA is its largest buyer of exports, Russia is the prime defence supplier and Iraq and Saudi are the main oil suppliers (Qatar is largest supplier of gas). India, hence, cannot risk alienating any one nation/block. Nevertheless, India has walked a tightrope, and managed to placate all fears while maintaining its own standing. USA has officially accepted India’s “distinct relationship” with Russia. As an acceptance of India’s strategic value, India’s Quad partners have accepted that individual approaches may vary. Russia, has graciously appreciated India’s support in international forums, and even China although not openly, has wooed India by sending its foreign minister on an uninvited visit!
Concluding Thoughts
When the clouds of war were hovering over Ukraine, in the month of February, India ran the risk of antagonising its key partners – an irate USA, ready to take India to task, a belligerent China, and an upset Russia. A month later, well into the second month of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the world now sees India appreciatively – a grateful Russia, a mellowed China (maybe temporary), and a not-so-disappointed USA, willing to increase its military support to India.
A new Cold War between the Western world on one side and China and Russia on the other may well be on the way. India has managed its interests well through deft diplomacy, not mincing words where required. It has emerged as a potential peacemaker, considering its relations with the two main actors – USA and Russia – and also Ukraine. The coming world order will require India to bring forth and use all its diplomatic skills and foresight; India has the ability to do so. India has, so far, very successfully manoeuvred itself over this difficult geopolitical terrain; it must continue, without any complacency, and with renewed zest and vigour to sustain its external outreach.
–The writer is an IAF veteran. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
