While India celebrated its annual festivals associated with Diwali, China concluded its twice-a-decade, seven-day festival, known as the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), on Sunday, October 23, in Beijing. The CCP Congress delegates numbering 2296 had their task cut out for these seven days: The members endorsed the list of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the Central Military Commission; they elected about 200 to the Central Committee with around 170 as alternate members. The sham exercise of gathering these huge numbers started in November last, and the election of the 2296 members culminated on September 25 this year. The Central Committee, in turn, approved 25 members to the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC), who, in turn, chose the ‘elite of the elite’ seven members – all men! The leader of the ‘magnificent’ seven, elected for an unprecedented third term as the General Secretary of the CCP, is, without any guesses, Xi Jinping! It was an election with ‘predetermined’ results, a grand show of ‘democracy’, thus legalising his autocratic and oppressive rule, and ensuring that complete concentration of power remains with him!

Xi Jinping planned very methodically for this moment from the time he gathered the reins in 2012. Under the garb of an anti-corruption drive, he removed all opposition with systematic ruthlessness. His assumption of power was unique in that for the first time in about two decades, the selection of the General Secretary did not have the stamp of approval of Deng Xiaoping, once considered a visionary leader, and, hence, was consulted on important decisions, even well after he relinquished his post, and until his demise in 1997. In 2012, with Deng no longer around, the whole process was shrouded in secrecy and confusion.

It was only when the group of the elected seven members, as against the earlier nine of the PSC, walked into the Great Hall of People in Beijing on November 15, 2012, that the veil of uncertainty was finally lifted, and the future leaders were made known to the people of China and the world. Xi Jinping, at the young age of 59 years occupied the chair of General Secretary and took on the mantle of President after another four months.

On his appointment as the General Secretary, Xi Jinping emphasised his main concerns at a briefing to the media, the foremost being to fight the widespread corruption in the Party and its key pillars – the military (People’s Liberation Army – PLA), the state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the internal security apparatus, as well as the principal propaganda machine (the print and social media) – and to ensure that the party cadres do not forget their primary task of serving the people. The main theme of his address, Xi’s ‘Chinese Dream’, however, was restoring China to its rightful position of primacy in the world order – a revival or rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Towards this end, he often referred to China’s long years of history, of how his predecessors, without really naming anyone, had attempted a revival of the country and how their attempts failed one after another.

A man in a hurry

Xi Jinping commenced his tenure as General Secretary and President with a distinctive strategy and as a man in a hurry, as if not having much time at his disposal. On the domestic front, Xi and his team moved away from the collective leadership by assuming control of committees and commissions – directly or indirectly – through protégés. In global affairs, forceful utterances and actions that had emerged during the later stages of Hu Jintao’s tenure were translated into more assertive behaviour through some massive operations of land reclamation and subsequent militarisation of the islands in the South China Sea (SCS). This was combined with aggressive economic diplomacy through the promotion of the One Belt One Road (OBOR), later popularly known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Alongside, during the spread of the Covid-pandemic in 2020, Xi briefed his cadre of diplomats to adopt a confrontational style of diplomacy, dubbed Wolf Warrior Diplomacy. They, as has been seen, threatened and insulted politicians and elected representatives on possibly every continent. All actions, both within and outside China, were started, and the momentum was maintained, dominantly focusing on China’s rejuvenation and the achievement of Xi’s ‘Chinese Dream’.

The central theme of the vision that Xi Jinping elucidated upon his taking over in October 2012 can be defined as the great rejuvenation of China – zhonghua minzu weida fuxing. Amongst the key pillars of the Party that Xi Jinping earmarked for reforms was the PLA, with aim to rid it of corruption and transform it into a more modern, capable, and disciplined military. Xi Jinping wanted a strong and modern military for China, which would fight a 21st-century war and prevail over adversaries to safeguard the country’s economic development, territorial integrity, and also the survival of the CCP.

Expounding the requirement for a sturdier and more resilient military, Xi often reflected upon the period between the decay of the dynasties in the late 19th century, and the Japanese occupation in the 1930s and 1940s; in Xi’s words, a “nation’s backwardness in military affairs has a profound influence on a nation’s security. I often peruse the annals of modern Chinese history and feel heartbroken at the tragic scenes of us being beaten because of our ineptitude.” Xi Jinping also alluded to the insufficient efforts of his predecessors in rejuvenating the country and did not wish to repeat the same mistakes.

Consolidation of position

Apart from the PLA, Xi focussed on consolidating his position: First, his anti-corruption drive got rid of some well-known names from among the members of the Politburo, the PSC and the CMC. Second, he used his early years in the Party to display himself as a representative of the hinterland. Lastly, Xi’s attack on elite politicians and their factions in the many institutions – at the central and provincial positions – and their replacement with his own protégés, eclipsed any opposition that may have existed earlier. Thus, at the end of his first tenure, during the 19^th Congress, the number of dissenters in the Politburo and associated committees, and even in the provinces, reduced drastically, giving him total control over Chinese politics.

A significant manifestation of Xi’s consolidation of power, endorsed by the 19^th Party Congress, is the formal inclusion of “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” as part of the Chinese Constitution and now included in the curriculum too. The earlier leaders such as Deng, Jiang and Hu were granted such recognition only after they had formally exited politics; in the current leadership, with Xi Jinping, it has been done at the near commencement of, what appears to be, a long march in his political career!

What is more remarkable is that this is the first time that a living leader’s ideology and beliefs have been written into the Party’s Constitution, after the enshrining of Mao’s Thoughts! As Mao Zedong once said in 1927, at the beginning of the Chinese civil war, “political power grows out of the barrel of the gun”, Xi Jinping followed to the letter. He has converted the one-Party rule into a one-man rule through a vicious conversion and having ‘officially’ abolished the tenure during the 19^th Congress, paved the way for a further term of unparalleled political power.

Likely impact

What should the world be ready for during the third term of Xi Jinping? As Minxin Pei, a Chinese-American political scientist has stated, “long-lasting autocrats who extend their rule indefinitely could place wrong bets, embarking on riskier and more ambitious courses of action, bringing about disasters to their regimes and people”.

Domestically, there is now a personalisation of power with little-or-no checks and balances, which can lead to no corrective actions in the event of a misfire of a policy. The Chinese people’s fate depends solely on Xi Jinping’s judgment. The economy, at its lowest in 40 years, is an indicator of what may follow in Xi’s third tenure, and maybe the fourth too! As the ‘core’ leader of the Party, he is in a position to bulldoze the people to follow his diktats at all costs, as has been seen by the implementation of his policies on Covid-containment.

Actions belie the words

It is Xi’s dream of restoring China to its rightful place in the global order, that the world should be worried about. While the tributary system saw Asian and East-African kingdoms and tribal states pay obeisance to Chinese emperors in return for trading rights and other benefits, in today’s world it would be a very difficult task to revive a similar system. China, on the face of it, offers countries mutually beneficial transactions in trade, investments, and exchanges; however, its actions belie the words that it speaks. In return for its offers, China does not want any interference in its core interests – Taiwan, the political system, or its actions to suppress uprisings in Tibet or Xinjiang.

With a strong military force, the world could see bolder actions in the Strait of Taiwan, as was seen earlier in the SCS (An ominous trailer was on display during Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan). Although war over Taiwan would be a catastrophe, the idea of adopting other painless options is anathema to Xi. During Xi’s opening address at the just concluded Congress session, he vowed to never commit to abandoning the idea of not using force to reunify Taiwan with the mainland. Wolf warrior diplomacy, which takes its name from a popular Chinese war movie, will, in all probability, continue in the coming years with the diplomats giving a display of increased aggression.

India needs robust military

Xi has also vowed to increase the pace of building its armed forces into a world-class military. Although he has his sights to challenge the military might of the USA, perceived adversaries in Asia need to be alarmed by his readiness to use force. As India grows into a self-reliant economy and closes the gap with China, it is in Xi’s cross-hairs, and he could just decide to launch a pre-emptive strike to thwart India’s growth and cut it to size. India needs to prepare a robust military itself, ward-off Xi’s increasing belligerence, and establish strong, bilateral and multilateral, economic and military, coalitions, with a rejection of parochial domestic politics.

Since 2012, when he first assumed power, Xi Jinping has come a long way; he was called Xi Dada, translated as “Uncle Xi” or “Big Daddy Xi”, and stood in a queue in a restaurant as a humble citizen; he now pushes his people to follow his diktats! Xi’s actions in the past decade are clearly indicative of his aspirations to continue in power; until when? is the question: will he still be around for the next decade, until 2032, when he will be touching 80? China today views itself, not as a regional power, or a rising power, but as a global power, standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the USA.  It, therefore, demands an equal status, which the USA is loath to accept.

Wait and watch

Many questions arise. Does China have the capability to achieve its ambitions of placing itself in a regional and global order? Can China project its leadership in regional and international political and economic institutions to propagate its autocratic norms? Can the PLA, with its Navy and Airforce show its presence all over the world by establishing overseas bases, with its growing armada of aircraft carriers and fleets of new advanced fighter aircraft? Can the waves of internal dissent in China be suppressed before they become a tsunami? Even as the years pass and some answers do emerge, only time can tell if China has the potential.

Until then, it shall be: “Hail Xi”!

–The writer is an IAF veteran. Views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda