The Israel-Hamas war has begun to widen into a regional conflict. In addition to the bombing of Gaza, Israel has bombed targets in Lebanon and Syria, which appears to be an American design to open another front against Russia and engage Iran as well. Move of two aircraft carriers to support Israel, promises by the POTUS Joe Biden and flurry of US officials visiting Tel Aviv points towards this.
Heavy fighting is already taking place between the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border. Hezbollah fighters reportedly opened fire on Israeli surveillance cameras installed along the concrete wall opposite Al-Adisa and Kafr Kila and disabled them. Hezbollah also destroyed two Israeli tanks. This shows that Hezbollah is already involved in the conflict with Israel. The IDF helicopter gunships are attacking military infrastructure in Lebanon.
There are indications that the Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel was a surprise only by way of the number of casualties they managed to inflict, while Israeli intelligence knew it was coming, with even Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu forewarned by the Egyptian Foreign Minister 10 days in advance. The CIA also knew for sure. The plan perhaps was to let the Hamas attack happen and then go full throttle to recapture Gaza.
The US, frustrated from its inability to defeat Russia in Ukraine, needed a diversion and Netanyahu is under severe pressure from what the Hamas could achieve and the psychological blow dealt to the invincibility of the IDF. Netanyahu, therefore, is left with little option but to go full force after Hamas (and Hezbollah?).
Netanyahu faced corruption charges before he became prime minister this time because of which, his coalition government reduced the powers of the judiciary. This in turn, led to prolonged nationwide protests. Now Netanyahu faces severe criticism for the Hamas attack. Circumstances have fitted him beautifully by design or default into the US plan of widening the conflict.
Iran recently sent a message to Israel through the United Nations saying it does not want further escalation in the Hamas-Israel conflict but will have to intervene if the Israeli operations in Gaza continue, especially if Israel follows through on its promise of a ground offensive in Gaza.
There are indications that the Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel was a surprise only by way of the number of casualties they managed to inflict, while Israeli intelligence knew it was coming
Over one million youth in Iran have volunteered to fight for Palestine against Israel. Sitting on the fence other than supplying military support to Israel, the US must be smiling away. America’s war against Russia using Ukraine as a proxy has destroyed Ukraine and weakened Europe, so what if Israel becomes another Syria?
By all accounts, Israel is all set to invade Gaza by land, sea and air, with the aim to “wipe out Hamas”. In clearing Gaza of Hamas, the Israeli ground offensive would possibly use the block-by-block approach through the constructed areas although many buildings are already reduced to rubble because of the bombings and shelling. Concurrently, it is no surprise that Hezbollah has initiated hostilities because it perceives Israel attacking Hezbollah ‘after’ dealing with Hamas – same way the US wants to deal with China after Russia.
But first the question – can Hamas be finished? Who would know better than the US with its so-called Global War on Terrorism (GWoT)? Have ISIS/ISIL, Al Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, Boko Haram, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or Al Shabab been finished? Is Al Qaeda leaderless with the US taking a decade to hunt him down? It is another issue that the US is responsible for aiding the rise of most of these terrorist organisations, including training and arming them, but also fighting them whenever it suited the US national interests.
Amrullah Saleh recently tweeted: after 20 years of half measure and un-smart fight the US has fulfilled all the wishes of Osama bin-Laden; the slogan of never negotiating with terrorists at gun point was shredded; ransom for hostage release was paid; finally Afghanistan was handed over to them and they are now the recipient of US$ 60,000,000 per week to further consolidate; before 9/11 the Taliban–Al-Qaeda alliance was in partial control of Afghanistan, but today, they are in full control; before 9/11 they had mainly second-hand and used Soviet weapons but now they have latest NATO weapons and NVGs.
An Israeli ground attack on Gaza would inflict considerable damage to Hamas; kill many of its leaders and fighters and damage infrastructure but not finish off the organisation completely. In fact, Hamas would have expected the IDF ground assault and must have prepared accordingly. Hamas has taken an unknown number of hostages. These will be used to exchange Palestinian prisoners in Israel as also to slow down Israeli offensives.
Iran recently sent a message to Israel through the United Nations saying it does not want further escalation in the Hamas-Israel conflict but will have to intervene if the Israeli operations in Gaza continue
The terrain in Gaza is tricky; involving constructed and habited areas and a whole maze of underground tunnels. In 2021, Hamas claimed to have built 500 kms worth tunnels under Gaza City, where nearly two million people live in the 140 plus sq. km territory. The length claimed might be debatable but, according to Professor Daphne Richemond-Barak of Israel’s Reichman University, the network is very intricate and large on a rather small piece of territory. Barak further says that dealing with tunnels in urban areas is even more difficult than in mountains; tactical, strategic, operational aspects are hampered due to avoiding collateral damage to civilians.
The IDF is likely to sustain a considerable number of casualties in clearing Gaza in an urban warfare setting compounded by tunnels that could be at more than one level. Portions of the tunnel network would be heavily booby-trapped besides hiding hostages and civilians, making their clearance even more complicated and taking a considerable number of days.
Moreover, these tunnels are likely to have hundreds of openings, all of which might be difficult to find. Hamas being part of Palestinians, at least a nucleus should be expected to mingle and move out with the civilians fleeing Gaza.
However, majority Hamas will stay put to fight out the IDF in Gaza, along with civilians who do not want to leave come what may because all their property and belongings are in Gaza for decades. Some of them may even be forced to stay on by Hamas to create a dilemma for the attackers.
The latest is that the POTUS Joe Biden is scheduled to visit Israel and Jordan on October 18. Jordan, because thousands of Palestine supporters protesting in the capital city of Amman are demanding ouster of the King, who they see as a supporter of America.
Tehran has warned if Israel launches a ground offensive in Gaza, Iran would strike Israel pre-emptively. This fits American plans to ignite wider conflict and Israel bearing the brunt (like Ukraine); with the US providing “full” support by way of naval carrier battle groups, loitering munitions and whatever else.
There is mounting pressure on Egypt to open the Rafah crossing and take in the millions fleeing Gaza on humanitarian grounds. From Egypt’s point of view, this is the Western way of ‘weaponising refugees’ not just the number of refugees involved.
Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood – the terrorist organisation, which America had installed by design to rule Egypt. It took considerable efforts by Egypt to dislodge and deal with the Muslim Brotherhood. Much that the U.S. would so like, Egypt does not want Hamas cadres entering the country in garb of refugees.
Biden, it may seem, has a difficult task at hand. But in all probability, he will signal full support to Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza, cautioning with a smile at the same time to avoid civilian casualties.
The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.
