The Dubai Air Show, a biennial gathering of global aerospace innovation held at Al Maktoum International Airport, concluded on a tragic note on November 21, 2025. As the Indian Air Force’s Tejas Mk1 executed its signature high-agility display — intended to captivate potential international buyers — the aircraft plummeted nose-down into the desert terrain, erupting in a fireball of debris and smoke.
The sole occupant, Wing Commander Namansh Syal, a seasoned test pilot hailing from Himachal Pradesh, perished instantly; no ejection was feasible given the aircraft’s proximity to the ground. Syal, described by peers as an ‘ace’ whose precision had illuminated prior air shows, embodied the spirit of India’s aerospace aspirations. His death evokes the archetype of aviator-martyrs, men who push test aircraft to their limit, knowing the high risks involved.
This tragedy is not merely a footnote in aviation annals but a lens through which to view the Tejas programme’s maturation. Conceived in the 1980s as a response to geopolitical imperatives — namely, the need for a domestically produced multirole fighter amid sanctions following India’s 1974 nuclear test — the Tejas has transcended its origins to become a symbol of technological sovereignty.
With over 40 aircraft inducted into IAF service since 2015, the programme has logged thousands of sorties, underscoring its operational viability. Yet, as with any nascent platform pushed to its limits, vulnerabilities emerge under scrutiny.
The Tejas Programme: A Chronicle of Indigenous Ingenuity
The HAL Tejas, Sanskrit for ‘Radiant’, emerged from the Aeronautical Development Agency’s (ADA’s) Light Combat Aircraft project, initiated in 1984 to supplant ageing MiG-21s in the IAF inventory.
Designed as a 4.5-generation delta-wing fighter, it integrates advanced fly-by-wire (FBW) controls, a relaxed stability configuration for supermanoeuvrability, and the General Electric F404-GE-IN20 afterburning turbofan engine, yielding a thrust-to-weight ratio of approximately 1.07 and a top speed of Mach 1.6, comparable to most advanced aircraft.
Its lightweight composite airframe (40% by weight) enhances agility, while indigenous avionics, including the Uttam active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar in later variants, position it as a cost-effective counter to regional threats.
Operationally, the Tejas has proven adept in diverse roles: air superiority, ground attack and reconnaissance. The No. 45 Squadron (‘Flying Daggers’), the first operational unit, achieved full operational clearance (FOC) in 2013 after Initial Operational Clearance (IOC) in 2011.
As of 2025, over 40 Mk1 aircraft serve across three squadrons, with cumulative flight hours exceeding 50,000, predominantly accident-free. This safety profile, with a near-zero fatality rate, contrasts sharply with legacy platforms like the MiG-21, dubbed the ‘flying coffin’ due to over 400 crashes since 1963.
Designed as a 4.5-generation delta-wing fighter, the Tejas integrates advanced fly-by-wire (FBW) controls, a relaxed stability configuration for supermaneuverability, and the General Electric engine, yielding a 1.07 thrust-to-weight ratio and a top speed of Mach 1.6, comparable to that of most advanced aircraft
The programme’s export ambitions, highlighted by the Dubai display, align with India’s strategic pivot towards defence diplomacy. Potential buyers include the UAE, Egypt and the Philippines, drawn to the Tejas’s sub-$50 million unit cost versus the F-16’s $70 million.
Yet, the 2025 crash introduces a calculus of risk, tempering enthusiasm until investigative clarity emerges.
The Incident: A Cascade of Aerodynamic Extremes
Eyewitness videos, corroborated by aviation analysts, depict the Tejas entering a high-risk negative-G (pushes exceeding -3G) pullout at approximately 500 feet above ground level (AGL) — a manoeuvre emblematic of its delta-wing design’s low-speed handling prowess.
The sequence unfolded as follows: the aircraft inverted into a rolling dive, wings momentarily levelled in an attempt to arrest descent, but failed to recover, impacting at over 400 knots in a wings-level, nose-down attitude.
The resultant explosion, fuelled by 3,000 litres of JP-8 kerosene, scattered wreckage across the showground perimeter, halting proceedings for two hours while emergency crews responded.
Dubai’s environment — 70% relative humidity with intermittent fog — may have compounded visibility challenges, though pilots are trained for such conditions.
Pre-flight inspections, as per IAF protocols, cleared the aircraft, debunking early social media claims of an ‘oil leak’ as mere condensation venting.
Sabotage, while theoretically plausible in geopolitical contexts, lacks evidentiary support and has been preliminarily dismissed.
As of 2025, over 40 Mk1 aircraft serve across three squadrons, with cumulative flight hours exceeding 50,000, predominantly accident-free. This safety profile, with a near-zero fatality rate, contrasts sharply with legacy platforms like the MiG-21, dubbed the ‘flying coffin’ due to over 400 crashes since 1963
Probable Causes: Human, Mechanical, and Systemic Interplays
The IAF has convened a tri-service Court of Inquiry, expected to conclude within 90 days, to dissect black box data, telemetry and structural remnants. Preliminary hypotheses, informed by forensic video analysis and expert consultations, cluster around three vectors:
- Pilot-Induced Factors: Negative-G manoeuvres demand split-second inputs to counter induced stall risks. Transient spatial disorientation or g-induced loss of consciousness (G-LOC) — exacerbated by the Tejas’s +8/-3.5g envelope — could precipitate the irrecoverable dive. Syal, with over 1,500 flying hours, was no novice; however, air show pressures amplify error margins, as evidenced in historical incidents like the 1988 Fairchild Republic A-10 Thunderbolt II crash.
- Technical Anomalies: The FBW system’s quadruple-redundant architecture mitigates single-point failures, yet extreme negative-G loads may induce control surface hysteresis or actuator lag. Echoing the March 2024 Jaisalmer crash — attributed to engine oil pump malfunction and seizure — this event might stem from hydraulic or sensor glitches under thermal stress (Dubai’s 32°C ambient). The F404 engine’s hot-section durability, while robust, has prompted upgrades in Mk1A variants.
- Environmental and Procedural Contributors: Low-altitude execution (below 1,000 feet) curtails recovery envelopes, a calculus amplified by the venue’s urban-desert interface. Procedural lapses, such as unaddressed pre-manoeuvre trim deviations, remain under scrutiny.
Comparative Analysis: Crashes as Catalysts in Fighter Evolution
Aviation history abounds with programmes tempered by tragedy. The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, the US’s $1.7 trillion cornerstone, endured 13 crashes during development (2006-2025), including a 2018 software-induced stall, yet emerged as the triad services’ linchpin with over 1,000 units delivered. France’s Dassault Rafale logged four prototype losses in the 1980s and 1990s due to FBW instabilities, refinements yielding a 99.9% dispatch reliability today. Russia’s Sukhoi Su-30MKI, integral to the IAF fleet (272 aircraft by 2025), suffered 12 crashes pre-induction (1990s), attributed to thrust-vectoring quirks, now mitigated via upgraded avionics.
Export negotiations with the UAE and Argentina may pause pending the inquiry, denting HAL’s credibility amid a $6 billion order backlog. Media amplification risks amplifying a ‘credibility gap’, yet IAF induction continues, with 83 Mk1A jets contracted in 2021, and deliveries accelerating to 16 annually by 2026
The Tejas’s ledger — two incidents in 20 years, one fatal — affirms its parity with peers. Pre-Dubai, it boasted zero fatalities across more than 1,000 demonstration sorties, a testament to iterative design incorporating crash-derived lessons, such as enhanced ejection seat sequencing post-2024. Probes invariably yield upgrades, such as AI-augmented stability augmentation systems (SAS) for Mk2, projected for a 2027 rollout.
Implications: Short-Term Ripples, Long-Term Resilience
The crash’s immediacies are perceptual: export negotiations with the UAE and Argentina may pause pending the inquiry, denting HAL’s credibility amid a $6 billion order backlog. Media amplification risks amplifying a ‘credibility gap’, yet IAF induction continues, with 83 Mk1A jets contracted in 2021, and deliveries accelerating to 16 annually by 2026. The Mk2 prototype, with GE F414 engine and stealth enhancements, bridges to the fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), slated for 2035.
Structurally, the programme remains unscathed. Crashes, statistically inevitable (0.1–0.5 per 100,000 hours for fighters), inform risk-based maturation. India’s 18-squadron Tejas backbone by 2035 will integrate with Rafale and Su-30MKIs, fortifying a layered deterrent.
The Tejas crash showcased a machine born of three decades of toil, for a nation carving out its space in the global aerospace industry, and echoes the trials of all fighter jet programmes. As the inquiry unfolds, it will unveil enhancements, such as refined negative-G protocols or sensor fusion redundancies
Conclusion: Honouring Sacrifice Through Sustained Resolve
Wing Commander Syal’s final flight showcased a machine born of three decades’ toil, for a nation trying to carve out its space in the global aerospace industry. The Dubai crash, although a significant setback, echoes the trials of all fighter jet programmes. As the inquiry unfolds, it will doubtless unveil enhancements — perhaps refined negative-G protocols or sensor fusion redundancies.
As one of the most visible symbols of Aatmanirbhar Bharat, the Tejas endures not despite such losses, but because of them. To stop now would dishonour the fallen.
–The writer is a globally cited defence analyst based in New Zealand. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
