Tel Aviv. The changes in US policy in the West Asia and Gulf region may affect the volume of export of US-made systems to countries in these regions, according to Israeli experts.

According to a new report prepared by the Stockholm international peace research institute (SIPRI), the United States remains the largest arms exporter, increasing its global share of arms exports from 32 to 37 per cent between 2011–15 and 2016–20. The US supplied major arms to 96 states in 2016–20, far more than any other supplier.

Almost half (47 per cent) of US arms transfers went to the West Asia. Saudi Arabia alone accounted for 24 per cent of total US arms exports. The 15 per cent increase in US arms exports between 2011–15 and 2016–20 further widened the gap between the US and second largest arms exporter Russia.

But experts say that the balance may change as Russia embarked on a concentrated effort to fill the gap that may be created by the policy of the US with Joe Biden in the White House.

While this policy is still not totally clear, Russia is very clear about its new policy in the region.

Some days ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made a four day visit to the Gulf States and met with the heads of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

Israeli sources say that the timing was ideal, if Moscow wants among other things to become a bigger supplier of arms to the countries in the region.

The Israeli source added that after gaining full control of Syria, the Russians want to signal to the Gulf states that while Washington shows signs of withdrawal from the region, Moscow is ready to play a major role in achieving some sort of agreements between Iran and the Gulf states.

The Gulf states are experiencing the effects of the new Biden’s policy that is best portrayed by the temporary hold on a number of arms sales approved by former US president Donald Trump. This include the sale of F-35 stealth fighter aircraft to the UAE and a deal to sell, special munitions to Saudi Arabia.

According to the Sipri report, Russia and China both saw their arms exports falling. Arms exports by Russia, which accounted for 20 per cent of all exports of major arms in 2016–20, dropped by 22 per cent (to roughly the same level as in 2006–10). The bulk—around 90 per cent—of this decrease was attributable to a 53 per cent fall in its arms exports to India.

Tal Inbar, an Israeli military analyst, says that most of the Russian weapon systems have are not combat proven. “If we look at their military aircraft it is obvious that they have not reached the level of the American ones.”

Inbar added that in the Russia-made UAVs are more advanced than those that were manufactured some years ago but still cannot be compared to the American systems.
“The only clear advantage they achieved is in the development of Hypersonic missiles but these are not in the Gulf states shopping list.”

The Israeli analyst said that Russia is offering its weapon systems in prices that are much lower than these made in the US. “Sometimes this is made on purpose as weapon sales to different countries give the Russians a much stronger foothold in these countries, in the form of ports, air fields and other infrastructure projects.”

According to the report, arms imports by India decreased by 33 per cent between 2011–15 and 2016–20. Russia was the most affected supplier, although India’s imports of US arms also fell, by 46 per cent. The drop in Indian arms imports seems to have been mainly due to its complex procurement processes, combined with an attempt to reduce its dependence on Russian arms.

India is planning large-scale arms imports in the coming years from several suppliers.
Israeli sources pointed to the fact that India has become a major market for the Israel defense industries. In recent years India purchased Israel-made systems like UAVs, maritime missiles and electronic systems.

The sources also pointed to some cooperation in developing defense systems with the development of the Barak 8. Now Israel is competing on selling additional AEW systems. In the past IAI supplied three such Phalcon systems carried by Russian made Il-76 aircraft.

In 2018 Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) announced it has been awarded an additional, US$777 million mega contract for supply of LRSAM Air & Missile Defense systems (the marine version of the AMD system Barak 8) for seven ships of the Indian navy. The contract was entered with Indian state-owned company Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) which serves as the main contractor in the project.

The LRSAM system, part of the Barak 8 Family, is an operational AMD system used by Israel’s navy as well as by India’s navy, air and land forces. It provides broad Aerial and point defense against a wide range of threats to the marine arena from the air, sea or land. The system integrates several advanced state-of-the-art systems as, digital radar, command and control, launchers, interceptors with modern RF seekers, Data link and system-wide connectivity.

The Barak-8 was developed by IAI in cooperation with the Indian ministry of defence (MoD).

-The writer is International Roving Correspondent of the publication