Assessing the Critical Impact of the Pandemic on India’s National Security

As India is crippling under the devastating second wave, govt is facing an unprecedented national security challenge within the overlapping realms of geopolitics, health, economics, technology, and human security. The pandemic has exposed the vulnerabilities of our internal security regime to threats emanating not only from within but also from beyond the national borders. It included challenges ranging from external border disputes concerning the territorial integrity of the country to paralyzed health infrastructure with spill over effects on every aspect of people’s lives.

By Aarti Bansal

Editor Opinion

The road not taken

Since last few decades, the notion of national security has witnessed a paradigm shift from encompassing exclusive traditional military threats, diversifying into domains like biological& chemical warfare, cyber warfare, and other avenues. Billions and trillions of dollars were continued to be spent on building massive military infrastructure in the name of national security. Even after the end of the cold war, the dominant discourse prioritized hard security accompanying military emphasis. However today, we are in a war, not against any nation, but the entire humanity against an unseen virus. The virus has no regard for national identity, ethnicity, race or colour. It reels across borders unobstructed by the barbs and wires, WMD, heavy military infrastructure, that has been deployed for our ‘security’. Beyond the immediate and devastating impact on people’s survival, COVID-19 has resulted in a staggering rise in unemployment and a multifaceted livelihood crisis. It unmasked the fragility of prevailing paradigms to render an effective response to global aid consequently leading to existential threats to human security that are not amenable to solution by military forces. It has demonstrated how health security is inextricably linked to national and human security.

The virus has no regard for national identity, ethnicity, race or colour. It reels across borders unobstructed by the barbs and wires, WMD, heavy military infrastructure, that has been deployed for our ‘security’.

On the economic front, the pandemic has plunged the world economy into a deep recession worst since the great depression of the 1920-30s. The closure of the education sector due to the spread of Coronavirus disrupting the process of learning and human interaction impending the social and behavioural growth of emerging youth. Food security is seriously threatened because of the global pandemic of COVID-19. The nationwide shutdowns and disrupted supply chains caused enormous danger to ensure food security. According to the UN World Food Programme, the ongoing pandemic is projected to raise the number of people suffering from acute hunger this year to 265 million. The outbreak has proved devastating for vulnerable refugee and migrant populations as was viewed in the peak period of the first wave in India last year. As the pandemic continues to spiral across the world, cybercrime, conspiracy theories, and consequently, the infodemic caused by reckless reliance on social media by citizenry are presenting critical long-term challenges to national security. Thus, Coronavirus is a wake-up call to revisit and recalibrate national security strategies to incorporate human health and public welfare into critical strategic domains for a foreseeable future.

 

Besides ravaging security imperatives within the boundaries, the pandemic gave undue advantage to India’s regional adversaries. ‘A crisis is a terrible thing to waste. The CCP seems to follow this in words and deeds. It is continuing its expansionist agenda to make creeping gains while the world is dealing with managing the life and death of its people. Beijing very well used the pandemic to employ its expansionist ambitions in the maritime, military, and space domain. Despite several rounds of talks, Beijing is not ceasing its aggressive build-up at Himalayan borders. China is also spearheading its influence in India’s strategic space as India is unable to fulfil its commitments of vaccine supplies to its neighbours during the current wave.

A bleak victory declared too soon

A country as big as India with a 1.38 billion population, a huge military might, and nuclear power is brought down to its knees by an invisible virus. It amplifies the growing redundancy and irrational prioritization of its national security spending. For few weeks, India is witnessing a dire situation, with crippling shortages, devastating numbers breaking world records of infections every day. One out of 3 the new infections and about one of 4 deaths worldwide is from India. For a virus like this or any other contagion, India is always a perfect germination ground due to its vast population size, fragile health infrastructure and poor hygiene, overcrowded cities with slums, lower standards of living, high mortality rates and stark poverty. India discovered this double mutant in the state of Maharashtra as soon as October 2020. Despite a sharp rise in cases since March 15, the government was lax in imposing social distancing, allowed large election rallies and religious congregations, and ignored the scientific warnings. Thus, India is as much a victim of lapses as the unpredictable and deadly virus.

 

For a virus like this or any other contagion, India is always a perfect germination ground due to its vast population size, fragile health infrastructure and poor hygiene, overcrowded cities with slums, lower standards of living, high mortality rates and stark poverty.

Despite knowing the fact that most of the so-called developed countries suffered a devastating second wave, we’ve declared victory too soon. The National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee cautioned that states like Maharashtra, Kerala, and Chhattisgarh are witnessing a second wave, in the first week of March. However, it has failed to alarm the governments across the countries to pay urgent heed. Instead of pulling up guards, they dropped the coronavirus dedicated infrastructure capacity- which fell by 6% between Dec 2020 and April 2021. The current scenario is so bleak that even if we deal with the oxygen and bed shortages, they cannot treat the patients. We need nurses, doctors, and paramedics to cure patients. Govt hospitals across the country have a shortage of 78 % medical specialists. According to statistics we need to produce at least 2 lakh nurses and 1.5 lakh doctors in the next few weeks for the next year.

 

What helped the US, EU, New Zealand, and more to rest their second surge is the targeted lockdown and aggressive vaccination. The second wave in India was a bit in our favour as it came a bit late at a time, we have a weapon to fight. The only thing that works for the virus is the vaccine. Even if we rolled out our vaccination drive in mid-January, we had three odd months before the second wave to stockpile enough for our population besides hailing ourselves as vaccine gurus. Although India is the biggest vaccine manufacturer in the world, only less than 3% of the total population is vaccinated till now. Vaccination distribution across the world is not India’s mistake, it could and should never be, what is at fault is poor management, government negligence, irrational and uninformed priorities. Improper estimation of vaccine production and procurement is what made us fall. Moreover, Vaccine patency and America’s hesitancy to help India, however, changed after being slammed the world over to only for refusing aid to India but also for hoarding vaccines, also shocked our strategic community. China, India, EU exported more than 40 % of their supplies until March. US exported 0 shots and UK followed. Thus, it highlights the inherent racial mindset and justice meted out by the so-called developed world.

An exigent road ahead

The expeditious outpouring of foreign aid and global support to India during the devastating second wave is the testimony of India’s established salience in the global community of nation-states. For India to sustain this status, it needs to focus on capacity building at home first. In 2005, Bill Gates alarmed that, due to inadequate investment in epidemic prevention, a highly contagious infection, rather than war, would be the most likely cause of millions of deaths worldwide. And it is imperative to note here that we just spend 3.6% of our GDP on healthcare. So is true of the developed countries and the entire global health infrastructure that spends miniscule amounts as compared to their spending on military build-ups. According to statistics, a 1% increase in military spending results in a 0.62% decrease in health spending.

In 2005, Bill Gates alarmed that, due to inadequate investment in epidemic prevention, a highly contagious infection, rather than war, would be the most likely cause of millions of deaths worldwide. And it is imperative to note here that we just spend 3.6% of our GDP on healthcare.

This needs to change. We have already lost much time, cannot afford to lose more. Given the inherent pitfall of our fragile medical infrastructure, we need to gear up our efforts and resources to build up special infrastructure, a national emergency stockpile of critical medicines along with high volumes of medical facilities and health workers proportionate to the population, innovation and advancement in medical research, community capacity building and special care for vulnerable sections. Most countries have not devoted the necessary funds or consideration to developing these requirements. India’s entire national security architecture must be succoured to incorporate the multipronged national security dilemmas in the post covid world. National Security, therefore, must be acquainted transnational challenges like health, environment, poverty, crime, to ensure a holistic approach to comprehensive national power.

In this global era, a crisis that transcends any national boundary demands a global solution. Mikhail Gorbachev, in his classic Perestroika (1987), asserted “the new political scenario calls for recognition of one simple axiom: Security is indivisible. It is either equal security for all or none at all.” While it was said during the nuclear age, it fits well in the present crisis as in so far as covid is concerned, no one is safe until everyone is safe. It is a threat to everyone everywhere. Effective global health governance including a well-rounded healthcare system, covering the critical aspects of universal health coverage and neutral multilateral agencies that can employ a prudent and proactive emergency response mechanism during any such crisis needs to be worked upon.

–The writer is a Research Intern, Strategic Studies Programme at ORF. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda