The war in Ukraine is facing a new crisis; paucity of manpower on the Ukrainian side. All Ukrainian males abroad have been asked to report back for military service amid reports that 10,000 poles have already been killed fighting in Ukraine. Germany is the first one to begin extraditing Ukrainian males although it has refused to extradite drug traffickers to the UK citing inhuman conditions in British jails. Westerners are saying that the only way for Ukrainians abroad to avoid certain death is to migrate to Russia or Belarus. All women doctors and nurses in Ukraine have also been asked to report for military service.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s surprise visit to Kiev to announce another $1 billion aid to Ukraine was marred by a devastating Russian missile strike. Though the Western media consistently says that Russia is “only” killing civilians, this has happened at a time when many Republicans on Capitol Hill are also calling for Washington to limit its military assistance to Ukraine in a war with no end in sight. The US has already provided more than $43 billion in aid to Ukraine. But, despite the waning public opinion, America’s Joe Biden Administration will continue supporting Ukraine with an eye on next year’s presidential election and a fresh warning by George Soros that Donald Trump will win the 2024 election and undermine the globalist unity.
In his article ‘The Fourth Turning that will Define our Century’ published on June 11, 2023, Alastair Crooke points out, in what he terms a “sad reality”, that the US has been well short of expectations in Ukraine; Russia has ascendancy in terms of forces deployed, sophisticated weaponry, near domination of the airspace and the electro-magnetic sphere. In addition, Russia is winning the financial and diplomatic wars to the West’s consternation, where the rest of the world, less the G7, has declined to join in sanctioning Russia.
Crooke further writes that the blowback to Europe is already more severe than the intended impact on the Russian economy; European economies are reeling from inflation and the specter of de-industrialisation fuelled by self-imposed forswearing of all imports of cheap Russian energy, and that industrial giants like Germany have slumped into a recession. 15 months into the Ukraine conflict, Europeans have so overtly and loudly sided with Biden’s war to cripple Russia that the turning of the tables cannot be seen as anything but a civilisational defeat for the West. He termed the possibility of the US and its European proxies resorting to open intervention “uncertain”.
But Europe’s woes have multiplied beyond adverse effects from the Ukraine war to encompass fallouts of the BRICS expansion and the fast-changing dynamics of Africa. French President Emanuel Macron has expressed concerns about the expansion of BRICS, highlighting the risk of “fragmentation of the world” that needs to be avoided; fragmentation of states has led to numerous countries choosing to unite in a union over which the West has no control; not only is there no control, but there is also no effective influence.
Macron said: BRICS expansion runs the risk of weakening the West and Europe in particular and turning the tides in their favour; the global financial situation is getting tougher as BRICS countries become more complex to trade with; by using local currencies for trade settlement, the West predominant international order is being challenged.
Concurrent to the above is the awakening in Africa against the West, the recent military coups in Niger and Gabon adding to the signals. It is well known that resources in Africa are exploited by private companies, owned by French, American and British billionaires and politicians who lead these countries. French colonisation of Africa is diminishing but not over. French troops are deployed to guard mines in Africa and African nations get a pittance against the minerals sold by the big corporate.
The US and the West attribute the increase in Russian and Chinese influence in the Global South to the changing dynamics in Africa. France is not clear how Africans in the future will react to France’s continued stay in French colonies in Africa. The effect of this is a loss of guaranteed supply of minerals including Gold. Niger has increased the price of Uranium, more than what was mandated by the French after the military coup, and these prices are likely to rise further. The West wants the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to take military action against Niger.
Now there is news that the European Union (EU) is set to launch a new mission in West Africa; a mission in the Gulf of Guinea, with police and soldiers deployed to Ghana, Togo, Benin and Ivory Coast, according to the German paper Welt am Sonntag published every Sunday. The stated aim of the combined military-civilian operation reportedly is to prevent instability triggered by jihadi groups; to train and advise local security forces, help prepare for anti-terror operations, provide technical support and implement confidence-building measures in the security sector. Formal approval of the mission is to be taken in October during the EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Luxemburg.
The reason for the mission is being given as the EU’s concern that Islamist groups (Islamic State and Al Qaeda) “could” extend their activities in West Africa from the Sahel zone toward the southern coastal countries on the Gulf of Guinea, leading to even more widespread instability in the region. But the actual reason probably is to: counter growing Russian and Chinese influence in Africa; Mali having kicked out French and German forces; Niger asking French forces to leave the country; military coup in Gabon after the military took power in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.
This EU mission would be backed by NATO. It needs no intelligence to decipher why the sudden assessment that the IS and Al Qaeda could extend their activities in West Africa; both these terrorist organisations being the foster children of the CIA. Not only has the US used these organisations in Iraq-Syria (even airdropped weapons for them) but also used them in West Asia and in Afghanistan in concert with Pakistan to advance American national interests.
With little chance of winning the war in Ukraine and America’s waning influence in West Asia, the obvious attempt now is to launch sub-conventional operations in Africa and destabilise regimes that are perceived as pro-Russia and China. In fact, there is speculation that the fire in the federally-owned building in Johannesburg that killed 74 and injured more than 50 within a week of the BRICS Summit was engineered by the West – displeasure expressed over the expansion of the organisation. Apparently, Africa is earmarked as the next battleground.
Tweet by: Filmmaker JC Okechukwu
Russian Intelligence accuses the USA of attempting to “physically eliminate” (assassinate) the new military leaders in Niger Republic. The report says American troops movement and logistical preparations for this action have been in progress and under Russian Intelligence surveillance, hence the LEAK at this time. According to a US military analyst, “the USA can’t stomach the loss of Niger. We have a large drone base there and about 1,100 soldiers for strategic operations and having Russia take control of that region is a bit too hard to bear, for the United States.” So basically, France isn’t the only one hurt and bitter over Niger…This all goes to show why the collective west would turn a blind eye to Mali, Burkina Faso and others, but won’t let go of Niger. The report further stated that the USA has indicated it does not have confidence in ECOWAS carrying out any military intervention and does not trust anyone else to do it, but wants to take action on its own, to eliminate the Nigerien junta. In the past, high level plans like this don’t get leaked until execution happens. Leaking this alleged plot by the US is yet another proof of Russia’s deep involvement and multilateral engagements in Niger. It also shows what can happen when multipolarism is at play. Intelligence has been shared with brother nations and no one is sleeping with two eyes closed. In the last few days alone, Russia’s Wagner PMC is said to have fortified positions and expanded its areas of control in Niger. The junta is said to be battle ready. The brother nations are ready. Wagner is ready. And the people are ready. NIGER REPUBLIC (one of the poorest countries in the world): Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, Uranium, Gold, Drone base, and so much more. From Niger alone, all of West Africa can be set on fire and overrun in a day or two. It’s not an easy prize to lose but, it’s already lost to them. We just got to fight to protect it.
Another tweet by: Sprinter says
500,000 Ukrainian military have already died, Irish MEP Claire Daly said at a meeting with NATO leadership. – You said that Ukraine is gradually conquering territories. But that’s not true. Half a million people died. Now they have begun to mobilize even the limitedly fit and sick … Nobody ever said it would be easy. We see that Russia has positioned its defenses correctly, Stoltenberg replied, without even trying to refute the death toll figures.
-The writer is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.
