Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus, a prominent Roman General, in his work De Re Militari said, “Si vis pacem, para bellum” (If you want peace, prepare for war). This quote has remained applicable for succeeding generations not only in the West but also around the world. In comparison to the past, humankind has become more civilised and more progressive. New ideas and technologies have developed that have proven to be a boon for humanity.
Unfortunately, if history is used as a point of reference, we will find that peace as an idea has been the exception rather than the norm. This is particularly true in today’s chaotic world. Since the end of the Cold War, the world has been marked by a brief moment of unipolarity followed by the growth of multilateralism. In the post-Cold War period, the world experienced globalisation – the growth of interconnectedness along financial, commercial, communicational and ideational dimensions. Problems of asymmetric economic development notwithstanding, large parts of the world experienced an unprecedented era of peace, stability and inclusive economic growth.
The world, according to the liberal thinkers, was finally experiencing the era of peace at last. Unfortunately, human history is non-linear; therefore, the post-globalisation era saw peace becoming elusive. The third decade of the 21st century has seen the current global world order being upended, first by the COVID-19 pandemic, then by the wars in Eurasia and the Middle East and now American trade warfare.
These matters, therefore, require deeper analysis.
Micro Havoc
All it took was the SARS COV-2, a virus not visible to the naked eye, to turn the world upside down. From the beginning of 2020, the world found itself in the grip of a pandemic, last seen a century ago in the concluding years of World War I. The entire world locked itself down; people began dying of this enigmatic virus in large numbers. Industries, schools, and colleges were shut. The normal way of life, as people around the world knew, stopped. Economies experienced a massive slump in their growth trajectory, with millions of people around the world losing their jobs. Supply chains of critical goods were disrupted.
Fortunately, the expeditious collaboration among governments and the breakneck speed at which the scientific establishments across the world worked played a critical role in finding a cure to the dreaded disease – vaccines.
The third decade of the 21st century has upended the world order, first by the COVID-19 pandemic, then by the wars in Eurasia and the Middle East and now American trade warfare
Fast forward to 2025, even though the pandemic has abated, humanity must draw important lessons from this unconventional security threat and take necessary steps to prepare for such an industrial-scale disaster.
With that said, it is now essential to turn our attention to the wars that continue to disrupt the cause of peace in the world.
Europe on the Edge
The date February 24, 2022 will forever remain etched in the history of Europe. On that day, Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine in order to prevent the latter from joining NATO and threatening the security of the Russian Federation.
The ensuing conflict has resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. The conflict marks the deadliest war Europe has found itself embroiled in since World War II. The demands of the two sides are starkly contrasting – Ukraine wants Russia out of its territory, return all the captured land and pay for the damage it has done to its economy, people and infrastructure; further, the Ukrainian leadership has made it very clear that it desires to become a part of NATO.
Russia, on the other hand, wants to integrate the Donbas region along with other areas of Eastern Ukraine it has captured; it also wants Ukraine not to join NATO and demands that the Western military alliance give concrete assurances that it will not expand eastwards.
Efforts to end the war have been futile. A recent summit meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska failed to break the gridlock. The Coalition of the Willing has attempted to broker peace by pledging to guarantee Ukrainian security, but has met with opposition from the Russian leadership because the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine constitutes a direct threat to the safety of the Russian Federation.
Meanwhile, people on both sides of the border are dying day in and day out from missile strikes, drone attacks and pitched battles among trained soldiers.
Since the inauguration of the second Trump presidency, the United States has unleashed tariffs on every country in the world; friend or foe, the Trump administration hasn’t spared anyone
Europe, which enjoyed quite a long period of peace, is experiencing a turbulent time reminiscent of the Cold War days.
Inferno on Earth
In the history of the Middle East, October 7, 2023 was a black day. On that day, Hamas struck deep inside Israel, killing over a thousand civilians and abducting more than two hundred civilians. In retaliation, Israel commenced a full-scale invasion of Gaza. Almost two years have passed, and the war appears to have no end in sight.
Gaza is a barren wasteland. More than 90% of the population has been displaced; over 60,000 people have been killed, and international institutions have declared that certain parts of the country are facing famine. Israel continues with its military campaign, and Gaza city is the latest target. Despite allegations of genocide being levelled against Israel from multiple quarters, the Jewish nation-state looks
to press ahead.
As a tokenistic measure, several Western countries have, in the UN General Assembly session, recognised a Palestinian state, much to the chagrin of the Israelis and the Trump administration in the United States.
Even as the comity of nations is frantically trying to find an end to the gruelling war, the common people of the enclave have had to pay a bitter price. Deprived of food, house and little water to drink, the enclave is teetering on the brink of a catastrophic humanitarian crisis.
That being said, Israel’s security concerns emanating from Hamas cannot be brushed aside. Hence, the situation looks extremely complex and will need some deft handling and creative diplomacy to silence the guns and let dialogue become the norm.
Economic Warfare
Apart from these two wars, the world also finds itself in the grip of another form of warfare – trade war. Since the inauguration of the second Trump presidency, the United States has unleashed tariffs on every country in the world; friend or foe, the Trump administration hasn’t spared anyone.
But lately, India seems to be at the receiving end of the Trump administration’s actions. The American government has imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods – 25% for failure to timely negotiate a trade deal that is in concordance with American terms and conditions, and 25% as a penalty for buying Russian oil. Ironically, such punitive action against China, the largest importer of Russian crude oil, is missing.
Calling the tariffs unfair, India has asserted that it will continue to buy oil from wherever it gets the best deal. The American tariffs have undone two decades of hard diplomatic work
In addition, the US has also lifted the waiver it gave to the Chabahar port in Iran, which is a joint Indo-Iranian project. This makes the vital infrastructure project that serves as India’s gateway to Central Asia via the maritime route vulnerable to sanctions.
New Delhi, however, has stood its ground. Calling the tariffs “unfair, unreasonable and unjustified”, India has asserted that it will continue to buy oil from wherever it gets the best deal. This knee-jerk American step seems to undo two decades of hard diplomatic work.
In response, the Indian government has given a call to go Swadeshi. This, however, has a rather different meaning – it doesn’t mean reviving the import substitution policy of the Nehruvian era, rather it means that no matter where the capital comes from, the labour involved must be that of Indians and should benefit India and Indians. The government is also urging Indians to buy local and go indigenous.
In conclusion, it must be said that Steven Pinker, the American cognitive scientist who, in his work The Better Angels of Our Nature, highlighted that the world has become a much more peaceful place, isn’t true at all. The world continues to grapple with conflicts and wars with no end in sight. In such situations, humanity needs to come together to make peace their main goal and must work towards creating a better planet and better humankind.
–The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
