India-US engagements following the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House are about to see a new but unequivocal phase on the diplomatic and strategic fronts and this expectation has grown, especially among people in India in the background of personal chemistry between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump. As per media reports, Trump is likely to visit India within 100 days of his presidency.
Amid this, however, what would give world watchers a much-needed opportunity to take note would be India-Russia relations, which is likely to receive a fresh boost during the visit of President Vladimir Putin, expected to take place soon. Dates of this visit are being finalised by the officials of India and Russia.
Yet, the visit is set to take place when last week, Joe Biden, in his penultimate days in the White House, attempted to further complicate his successor Donald Trump’s bid to resolve Russia-Ukraine war; he announced placing around 100 entities from the finance, energy, and defence sectors under Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
India-US engagements following the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House are about to see a new and fresh phase on the diplomatic and strategic fronts, this expectation has grown, especially among people in India in the background of personal chemistry between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump
Trump’s keenness to end Russia-Ukraine war
This move will give American lawmakers an opportunity to forestall any attempt by the new US administration headed by Donald Trump to reverse the Biden administration’s efforts to weaken Russia. It is in this background, the forthcoming visit of the Russian President to India, which will be the first since Moscow launched an attack on Ukraine in February 2022, will be a much-watched affair.
The Russia-Ukraine war entered its third year in February 2025. The Trump administration wants to end the ongoing war between the two countries as the US, which under the Biden presidency, poured tens of billions in military aid into the war, is now no more in mood to spend even a penny.
In fact, as per Trump’s Russia-Ukraine envoy Lieutenant-General (Retd) Keith Kellogg, the 47th US President is keen to resolve Moscow’s conflict with Kiev within 100 days. There is also a desperation among NATO countries, especially from Europe to resolve the war because it is taking a huge toll on their economy. They want peace.
Russia wants India’s mediation to end war
Russian President Putin wants to make India a part of any purported resolution over war with Ukraine. If given a chance to play a meaningful role in ending the vexatious Russia-Ukraine war, India, it is said, will take it as an opportunity to showcase its diplomatic acumen in resolving the complex conflict, which has impacted the world since 2022.
It is to be seen how geopolitics evolves in the near future across the world. For India, what is certain is the respect it earns from Russia and the West. Its independent foreign policy and balance of trade with both Russia and the West, places it in a unique position as the neutral negotiator. Further, India has consistently advocated for dialogue and diplomacy rather than war, even while maintaining a neutral stance on Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Reportedly Trump is likely to visit India within the first 100 days of his presidency. Meanwhile, the Russian President Vladimir Putin, is also expected to visit India soon. Dates of his visit are being finalised by the Indian and Russian officials
Russia’s Afghanistan game plan and India
But last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov set tongues wagging when he advocated that India and Pakistan should sit down to address each other’s concern, while urging Islamabad to join hands with New Delhi and Kabul to address threats of terrorism. The Russian Foreign Minister also called for including India in Iran-led Quad with Russia, China, and Pakistan on Afghanistan to stabilise and aid Kabul.
The Russian Foreign Minister came a week after Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri held talks with acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan, Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai and expressed readiness to respond to the urgent developmental needs of Afghanistan, including support for the health sector, rehabilitation of refugees and strengthening ties to promote sports.
Both India and Russia are on the same page regarding the stability of Afghanistan. They are concerned about a possible shift of ISIS, Al Qaeda and other terrorist outfits towards Afghanistan in the aftermath of the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. If it happens, it would lead to instability in Afghanistan with its impact touching areas of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Russian border.
In this background, Moscow wants India to be part of Afghanistan-oriented Quad, in order to provide a broader, more diverse platform for addressing security concerns in Afghanistan. Altogether, the Russian Foreign Minister’s suggestion over inclusion of India in the Afghanistan-oriented Quad indicates growing recognition of India’s strategic importance.
Russian President Putin wants to make India a part of any purported resolution over war with Ukraine. If given a chance to play a meaningful role in ending the vexatious Russia-Ukraine war, India, it is said, will take it as an opportunity to showcase its diplomatic acumen in resolving the complex conflict, which has impacted the world since 2022
Russia-India Middle East strategy
The Middle East is crucial both for India and Russia due to their energy security, connectivity, counterterrorism, and regional stability. India enjoys robust bilateral relations with all countries of the region, while Russia is seeking to expand its geopolitical influence by strengthening its defence and economic ties with the Middle East.
Still, for both India and Russia connectivity with Iran is stuck because of US sanctions on both Iran and Russia. How the two countries, under Trump’s presidency, circumvent sanctions remain to be seen. In fact, sanctions are posing a significant hurdle in the pursuit of closer cooperation between India and Russia over the Middle East.
India’s bid to wean Russia away from China
Although India prefers to have a diversified set of relationships instead of being forced into a rigid alliance with one power over another, Russia President Putin’s forthcoming visit to India is highly important.
The visit will provide New Delhi an opportunity to deepen ties with Moscow in a way that could help it in leveraging its influence over Russia which has in recent years leaned on China heavily because the latter serves as a big market for its energy. Additionally, Moscow and Beijing have collaborated on technology and large-scale infrastructure projects. Russia and China are also strong defence partners and they are against the growing Western political and economic influence, particularly any US-led international order.
As per Trump’s Russia-Ukraine envoy Lieutenant-General (Retd) Keith Kellogg, the 47th US President is keen to resolve Moscow’s conflict with Kiev within 100 days. There is also a desperation among NATO countries, especially from Europe to resolve the war because it is taking a huge toll on their economy
Given this, it is not easy to wean Russia away from China unless there are huge geopolitical changes with the Ukraine war getting resolved and the West withdrawing sanctions on Moscow and ending its international isolation. However, with Trump vowing to end the Ukraine war, there might be hope of a new turn in international politics. The new US administration has promised to inject a new life in the world dotted with tension and strife.
To sum-up, the forthcoming visit of the Russian President will lead to imparting a fresh thrust on defence cooperation between the two countries. New defence deals or joint military exercises could also be on the agenda.
Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov set tongues wagging when he advocated that India and Pakistan should sit down to address each other’s concern, while urging Islamabad to join hands with New Delhi and Kabul to address threats of terrorism. The Russian Foreign Minister also called for including India in Iran-led Quad with Russia, China, and Pakistan on Afghanistan to stabilise and aid Kabul
Similarly, on the energy front, the two countries might discuss ways to navigate fresh sanctions that the Biden administration, in its last days in office, imposed on Moscow.
Along with this, the two countries, during the planned visit of Vladimir Putin, might lend more focus on trade in local currencies in order to strengthen bilateral economic ties. Overall, the longstanding, and time-tested partnership between New Delhi and Moscow will receive a significant boost following Putin’s much talked about visit to India.
–The writer is a senior journalist with wide experience in covering international affairs. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
