The Year of Reforms – 2025 Could be More Challenging

The defence reforms initiative has been praised but what about the standoff with China? Whether having one theatre command for the entire border with China is enough, after the violent changes in Myanmar and Bangladesh. Should the responsibility of the Siachen Brigade (the only Indian Army formation facing China and Pakistan) be split between two Theatre Commands?

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has officially declared 2025 as the ‘Year of Reforms’. The announcement came following a meeting chaired by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on January 1, 2025, The following is reportedly part of this initiative – One: Simplified Procurement Processes; Two: Reduced Timeframes – as fallout of streamlining procurement processes; Three: Faster Decision Making – by delegating powers; Four: Theaterisation – expected landmark achievement; Five: Focus on Emerging Technologies – cybersecurity, space; AI, machine learning, hypersonic, robotics and their integration; Six: Enhanced Inter-Service Cooperation. The defence minister said these reforms would lay the groundwork for unprecedented advancements in national security and sovereignty.

The media has described this as a comprehensive approach to transforming the Indian Armed Forces into a technologically advanced, combat-ready force capable of integrated multi-domain operations. But a closer look would tell you that the focus in 2024, 2023 or earlier was no different; what with the standoff with China all along the LAC and lessons from the ongoing global conflicts, especially in Ukraine. Moreover, simplified procurement processes, reduced timeframes and faster decision-making have been the favourite clichés of the MoD over the past decade with little change. Isn’t every new defence procurement procedure declared as the ultimate?

The New Year began with news reports that the aide-de-camps (ADCs) henceforth will be from sister services. The media calling this a fresh signal of readiness for consensus-driven integration was accompanied by a smiling photograph of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and the CDS General Anil Chauhan. But beyond the gimmick of personal appointments like the ADCs, more comprehensive and strategic reforms are needed to truly enhance inter-service cooperation and tackle the deeper issues at the heart of multi-service operations.

The government’s intent appears to be to flag another milestone by affecting theaterisation at an early date – will Prime Minister Narendra Modi announce it on January 26 or August 15 this year? Theatre commands were signalled by PM Modi on August 15, 2019, when he announced the creation of the post of CDS. This first CDS was appointed on January 1, 2020. But the bureaucracy achieved a massive win in establishing the CDS and the Department of Military Affairs (DMA) with the CDS a notch below the Defence Secretary (in-charge of capital acquisitions and policy in peace and war) and who is not even an Adviser to the PM.

Hopefully, a theaterisation will not be thrust upon the military, which will be difficult to change, especially with a military hierarchy which is demonstratively ‘tamed’; given that the army and the navy are already infected with the virus of installing statues for political appeasement and the army chief meekly removed from his office the iconic painting of the surrender of the Pakistan army at Dhaka in 1971, which denotes India’s strategic victory in 1000 years.

PM Modi signalled about theatre commands on August 15, 2019, when he announced the creation of the post of CDS. This first CDS was appointed on January 1, 2020, but the CDS and the Department of Military Affairs (DMA) were put a notch below the Defence Secretary (in-charge of capital acquisitions and policy in peace and war), who is not even an Adviser to the PM

Do we need Theatre Commands? Of course, we do but not like the US and NATO, which have global roles. Besides, they don’t have borders to defend, instability around them and enemies eyeing their territories. Are we strong enough with adequate resources to ape China by having a single theatre command to be responsible for the entire border with China? Definitely not, with the violent changes in Myanmar and Bangladesh. The strength of the IAF is reduced to such an extent that the government has now appointed a committee to find solutions – indicating that the existing structures are incapable of doing so. In a multi-domain, multi-directional war, do we expect the Army’s dual-tasked formations to switch from one theatre to another? Should the area of responsibility of the Siachen Brigade (the only Indian Army formation facing both China and Pakistan) be split between two Theatre Commands?

The geostrategic situation around India has drastically changed, which can be gauged from the following:

China’s intent is clear from the boundary changes it demanded (impinging on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of India) during the recent meeting between the Special Representatives of both countries, details of which and official rejection by India (if at all) have not been made public by New Delhi. Moreover, China has announced the world’s biggest dam on the Brahmaputra River close to its border with India and recently announced two new Counties that include parts of Aksai Chin, which is Indian Territory.
In November 2024, a 14-member team of Bangladesh Islamist parties, led by Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) leader Syed Abdullah Mohammad Taher visited China on Beijing’s invitation; obviously to chalk out the future course of action, including Pakistan’s participation in the regional power game. A Chinese naval flotilla was the first to visit Bangladesh after the regime change. China and Pakistan are supplying arms and ammunition to Bangladesh. China has reportedly also supplied some fissile material. Bangladesh plans to purchase China’s Chengdu J-19C multirole fighter jets, F-16 fighter aircraft from the US and has deployed Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones close to its border with India.

Hopefully, theaterisation will not be thrust upon the military, given that the army and the navy are already infected with the virus of installing statues for political appeasement and the army chief meekly removed from his office the iconic painting of the surrender of the Pakistan Army at Dhaka in 1971, which denotes India’s strategic victory in 1000 years

Mohammad Yunus, Chief Adviser of the Interim Government and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sherif have met and reaffirmed their commitment to deepen bilateral and multilateral collaboration, and the ISI is back in Bangladesh in strength. Bangladesh has operationalised the Chittagong-Karachi Sea Link and has decided to cut imports of essential food items from India.
The Pakistan Army has reached an agreement with Bangladesh to train the Bangladesh Army beginning February 2025. The training will be conducted in four Bangladesh Army cantonments beginning with Mymensingh Cantonment in February.
The Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) is spearheading radicalisation of youth in schools and colleges in Bangladesh, including small children like other Islamist terrorist groups akin to ISIS. Some of these youth may have already been used for attacking minorities and are perhaps being trained as suicide bombers.
Bangladesh is getting enormous foreign funds to fuel anti-India sentiments/acts of violence. As per Bangladesh media, Bangladesh received foreign remittances worth $2 billion in the first three weeks of December 2024. $95.2 million is reaching Bangladesh every day. According to the Central Bank, Bangladesh has received a total of $2.007 billion; a major chunk of $613.1 million sourced through government banks.
There is speculation that India can benefit from the fall of Rakhine State in Myanmar to the Arakan Army (AA) and the AA taking control of the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, but this can also be a threat to India, especially since Bangladesh is arming and training Rohingyas in Bangladesh with weapons supplied by Pakistan. By the end of September 2024, over one million Rohingya refugees received documents from Bangladesh. The threat is greater since many of the 40,000 Rohingya refugees in India may be sleeper cells of Bangladesh/ISI.

Significantly, Israel has crossed the nuclear threshold by dropping a tactical atomic bomb in Syria. It would be naïve for us to rule out China using tactical nukes. Therefore, we must be prepared for heightened terrorism to hybrid war, as well as China using nukes, especially when Beijing perceives that India’s political hierarchy would not dare to respond similarly

Manipur, India’s peaceful border state since the early 1980s, is wracked with ethnic violence since May 2023 because of India’s own doing; providing an asymmetric battlefield for our enemies to exploit.
The calls for Ghazwa-e-Hind are growing louder as covered in these columns earlier, which would be coordinated by forces inimical to India.

Significantly, Israel has crossed the nuclear threshold by dropping a tactical atomic bomb in Syria. It would be naïve for us to completely rule out China using tactical nukes to break the crust of our defences at selected places; like in Ladakh where it eyes the waters of Pangong Tso and Siachen Glacier. US scholars have been talking about such a possibility for the past several years. Therefore, we must be prepared for heightened terrorism to hybrid war, as well as China using nukes, especially when Beijing perceives that India’s political hierarchy would not dare to respond similarly.

As to 2025 – the ‘Year of Reforms’, we may see news reports about reforms in equipment, functioning of ordnance factories/depots/DRDO, Aatamnirbharta, AMCA (which may take 15-20 years) and the like. But if the MoD is really serious about reforms, why is the much-hyped reorganisation of the DRDO stalled, and why the retrograde step of MoD adopting ‘self-assessment’ with the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) practically gagged since the past two years?