Realism, one of the most popular theories of International Politics, posits that human nature is essentially narcissistic and egotistical, and emphasises the fulfillment of self-interest. Even when it contributes to the development of the common good, it keeps the gratification of one’s interest in the mind. According to realist thinkers such as Niccolo Machiavelli, Hans Morgenthau, and John Mearsheimer, power is the most powerful aphrodisiac in the annals of International Politics.
Given the lack of a Leviathan that can enforce the rule of law in the global arena, states fend for themselves, in that context, the accumulation of power becomes the sine qua non for the survivability of nation-states. In the process of acquiring power, the seeds of distrust and paranoia creep in, leading to what thinkers like Kenneth Waltz call a ‘security dilemma’ wherein states are suspicious of each other as they fortify their security measures, leading to the possibility of conflictual showdowns.
This is exactly what seems to be happening with Trumpian America’s relationship with Europe. While the continent’s pre-eminent organisation, the EU, was already expecting a tense and often confrontational relationship with the USA, the latest developments seem to have flabbergasted Europe.
The idea of liberal international order, pioneered by the Euro-Atlantic region with American hard and soft power since the end of the Second World War, seems to have unravelled under Trumpian America. Trump’s transactional style of leadership doesn’t allow any room for theatrics or for that matter the ubiquitous display of optics. For Trump, deals have to be struck based on America’s new terms. This is something that seems to be underway in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war.
No Space for Europe
Realism acknowledges that morality and ethics in global politics are of secondary importance. In the worst-case scenario, the display of ethics and morality is applied to put a nation-state in peril. However, the ethical view of morality has influenced the European approach to Russia for the past three decades, especially since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
What, however, startled Europe was the blunt declaration made by the current US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in his meeting with NATO leaders that the idea of Ukraine getting a NATO membership (the very premise of why Ukraine has been so vehemently lobbying with Washington ever since the 2022 war broke out) is at best a pipe dream and is something that isn’t going to happen.
He jolted the Europeans in general and Ukrainians in particular by making it clear that the idea of Ukraine getting back its pristine form i.e., the pre 2022 and pre-2014 borders is never going to happen. Put bluntly, Hegseth has basted Ukraine indirectly by describing its negotiating stand to restore territories occupied and captured by Russia in the past decade as utopian.
To make matters worse, US President Donald Trump called up his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to put an end to the ongoing war as soon as possible. The irony is that neither Ukraine nor Europe was consulted in this ostensibly blindsiding step. The two leaders have agreed to meet in Saudi Arabia to hammer out the issues affecting their bilateral ties in general and develop the contours of a ‘peace deal’ without the presence of the EU, or for that matter, Ukraine.
Further, via Hegseth, Trump sent a direct message to Europe. “America will no longer guarantee European security, the days of your free riding are over. Now, take responsibility for your protection and well-being”.
Amid such rapid developments, Europe has found that remaining too comfortable in the belief that the liberal international order based on globalisation as the de-facto model of global politics is something that has come back to haunt them.
Trump’s realist-pragmatist approach in dealing with Russia, much to the chagrin of USA’s European allies has fundamentally reoriented the security and political future of the Euro-Atlantic region. The entrenched European belief that the US will never be their staunchest ally no matter what seems to be largely over as Trump seeks a more quid pro quo kind relationship.
Realism demands that nation-states carefully study the past to derive proper lessons in the future to internalise them for the needs of statecraft, but that is something that the European countries have failed to do vis-à-vis Trump. One thing that appears amply clear is that realism matters today more than it ever did.
–The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
