Decade and a half of a conflict in Syria has created one of the world’s largest refugee crises with over 14 million Syrians forced to flee their homes. Out of these, almost 7.5 million remain internally displaced and approximately 5.5 million are in the neighbouring countries including Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and Iran. In Europe, Germany has the largest share with almost 850,000 Syrian refugees.
The Syrian society, with 90% of the population living below the poverty line and 70% in need of humanitarian assistance, requires massive reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts by the International community to ameliorate the situation. To make the matters complex, the Syrian society remains deeply divided on sectarian and religious lines, and the last 50 years of the Alawite rule and suppression have created inherent mistrust among various factions and groups.
In December 2024, the Syrian rebels under the helm of Sunni Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), led by the charismatic leader Ahmed al-Sharaa alias Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, in a rapid offensive toppled the Assad government, drawing the curtains on the half century-long rule of the Ba’athist party. With the Syrian economy in dire straits and most of the infrastructure in ruins, the post-war rehabilitation and reconstruction is a mammoth task and a national priority for the interim government.
Syria’s new leadership has spent a better part of its existence fighting from the shadows, creating terror and discrediting the Assad government, and may find itself unprepared for the challenging task of reconstruction in the fractured Syrian society in the face of international sanctions.
Successful large-scale reconstruction is possible only when society is united and the government creates an agenda acceptable to the majority. Syria today is a splintered society with substantial parts being controlled by different rebel factions such as US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the Northwest, Turkey-supported Syrian National Army (SNA) in the Northeast, and Southern Coalition including Druze militias in the South.
Creating a unified vision will require astute brinkmanship by the new government with a fair mix of confidence building and persuasion. Also, the new government will have to deal with competing priorities and aspirations of the foreign powers, including Turkey, the USA, Russia, on the Mediterranean Sea, foreign groups such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State and of course other big players of West Asia like Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
In such a complex scenario, the primary task for the new rulers would be to shed the hardliner Islamist image for a more moderate accommodative representation with a nationalist agenda, to which all the parties and groups align. It is encouraging to observe the new interim government making the right moves and statements to form a consensus and engaging with a wide array of national and international audiences. Take for instance the leader himself, he has dropped his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, earlier associated with his rebel past for his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa.
The image building for Jolani and HTS has been a process in the making and cultivated over years. Since the time HTS took control of Idlib sometime in 2017, they have focused on governing the area and formed the Syrian Salvation Government (SG) as their political wing. In Idlib, it functioned like a state with various ministries and departments of education, health and reconstruction under the supervision of a religious council guided by Sharia laws. They have been focusing on providing stability and services to society and highlighting their achievements of effective governance and reconstruction.
Syria today is a splintered society with substantial parts being controlled by different rebel factions such as US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the Northwest, Turkey-supported Syrian National Army (SNA) in the Northeast, and Southern Coalition including Druze militias in the South
To unify the militant groups, reduce infighting and place HTS as a dominant group in Syria, SG has been working against the operatives of Islamic State and dismantling Al Qaeda and other foreign militant networks through the General Security Service (GSS), their law enforcement/intelligence body. The main purpose of GSS was to protect the people of liberated areas and prevent crime, thereby focusing the organisation’s energies against the Assad regime.
At times, the carefully cultivated transformation of HTS leader from Abu Mohammed al-Jolani to Ahmed al-Sharaa over last few years, setting up and careful projection of the interim government with the moderate image at Idlib, lightening offensive and quick capitulation of Assad government, compels one to think of a deeper forces at work in the Syrian landscape.
In the fractured Syrian topography, marred by divisiveness, violence and oppression, such momentous changes could not have happened with the genius of HTS alone. In all likelihood, powerful forces such as Turkey, the USA, West Asian regional players like Qatar and Saudi Arabia and even Russian compliance, would have played their part over a sustained period to orchestrate the entire sequence of events.
After taking control of Syria, HTS has been trying to take steps in fostering an inclusive culture cutting across the sectarian divide and interacting with previous regime appointments for a smooth transition of power. HTS went to the extent of allowing the previous Prime Minister to preside over the functions of the state institutions till the completion of transition. It has been trying to impress the domestic and international audiences by promising safety to minorities, pledging peaceful relations with neighbours and even speaking to Russian President Putin and confirming that Russia can continue to maintain its bases in Syria. Their initial interactions with other countries include state visits to Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Jordan, and hosting delegations from Russia, the USA, France, and other European countries.
Despite Russia’s staunch support for the Assad regime, the new Syrian President has welcomed continued Russian presence in Syria, and in an interview with the Al-Arabia Channel noted, “Deep strategic interests between Russia and Syria.” Such actions do indicate the new regime’s efforts to win the trust of the Syrian people and maintain a fine balance between projecting a modern, moderate outlook for minorities and the international community, while maintaining their Islamist identity to satisfy hardliners within the rebel-held areas.
During the Assad’s rule, most of the Western countries and the US imposed stringent sanctions on Syria. For any meaningful aid to flow, these crippling sanctions need to be lifted. The European Union has lifted some sanctions to facilitate the flow of humanitarian assistance and reconstruction
The statements of HTS leadership have been devoid of any inflammatory hardline rhetoric or threats, and have been focused on moderate themes of reconciliation and reconstruction. The national conference held on February 25, with over 600 delegates from almost the entire cross section of Syrian population, could be a pivotal event in building consensus for the future of Syria. The interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa addressed the conference by saying, “Syria liberated itself on its own, and it suits it to build itself on its own,” He further emphasised, “What we are living today is an exceptional, historic and rare opportunity. We must take advantage of every moment of it to serve the interests of our people and our country.” He warned the non-state armed groups to disarm and hand over their territory and underlined that Syria was indivisible and its strength lies in its unity.
The conference terminated on a positive note with three major takeaways:
Syria’s New Constitution: One of the primary goals of the conference was to commence drafting a new constitution for Syria. It was stated that the new constitution would be based on the guarantees of justice, equality and freedom of speech for every citizen and shall ensure inclusivity and national unity.
Syrian Sovereignty: In the wake of Israel moving into the buffer zone in the Golan Heights and occupying the strategic highest peak ‘Mount Hermon’ in Syria in violation of the 1974 disengagement agreement, the conference criticised the Israeli move and rejected President Netanyahu’s statement for Syrian forces not to venture South of the Damascus. The conference called for unity of the Syrian Arab republic and sovereignty over its entire territory, rejecting any form of fragmentation, division, or ceding any part of the homeland. Israel, though, is of the view that with the fall of the Syrian Government, the 1974 agreement too has collapsed.
Freedom of expression and coexistence: In the current ruling dispensation, HTS has not included any women, and a majority of the positions have gone to their trusted hardliners. Also, the restricted role of women was announced by Aisha al Dibs, the head of the women’s affairs office, in December. Closing statement in the conference, however, called for supporting role of the women in all fields and it rejected all sorts of discrimination based on race, religion or sect. The statement also emphasised the freedom of opinion and expression, rejecting all forms of violence, incitement and revenge.
India has enjoyed close political, diplomatic and civilisational ties with Syria and has been stressing upon the Syrian-led political process in line with UNSC Resolutions. An Indian delegation’s visit to Syria at this juncture, pledging support for the reconstruction, would go a long way in securing India’s interests in the future
During the Assad’s rule, most of the Western countries and the US had imposed stringent sanctions in response to the alleged atrocities committed during that period. For any meaningful aid to flow these crippling sanctions need to be lifted. Earlier this week, the European Union lifted some sanctions relating to energy, transport and banking sectors to facilitate the flow of humanitarian assistance and reconstruction. Any further easing of the sanctions will probably depend on the Syrian transitional government keeping their promises and taking the process of reconciliation and rehabilitation further.
India has traditionally enjoyed close political, diplomatic and civilisational ties with Syria and has been stressing upon the Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process, in line with UNSC Resolutions. After the departure of President Assad, in a brief issued by MEA in February 2025, India has firmly committed to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic and stated that, “We hope that the new constitution, due to be drafted takes into account the interests of all the sections of the Syrian society.” Given the strategic location of Syria in the Levant, India would do well to establish contacts with the new government and partake in the reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts.
As the World’s most populous country with a thriving democracy in a multi ethnic society, India could assist the new Syrian government in the drafting of a new constitution. At this juncture, a visit by an Indian delegation to Damascus and pledging support for the reconstruction would go a long way in securing India’s interests in the future.
Syria is at the crossroads and it is still too early to predict whether Ahmed al-Sharaa’s moderate nationalist approach is the genuine shift from erstwhile hardline ideology or it is a political manoeuvre aimed at consolidating power and winning international approval before implementing more religiously conservative programmes.
The writer, Kirti Chakra, AVSM, VSM, is an Indian Army veteran. He has also served as the Indian Military Attaché in Moscow. An accomplished scholar, Maj Gen Mehra specialises in Geopolitics with a focus on Russian Studies and is currently pursuing his PhD in the field, further enriching his depth of knowledge and global perspective
