The terrorist ambush of two army vehicles in the Surankote area of the Poonch-Rajauri sector on December 21, 2023, has brought the focus on terrorism in J&K again. The terrorists took away the weapons after killing five army soldiers and injuring two, and mutilated and beheaded the bodies of two soldiers. It is not the first time Pakistani terrorists have beheaded our soldiers.
The level of violence and terrorism in J&K has come down, but terrorism remains alive due to external and internal factors. The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has said that terrorist incidents fell to 44 in 2023 from 228 in 2018 – relating it to abrogation of Article 370. However, the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) reports 206 incidents of killing during 2018 in J&K and 72 in 2023. SATP data also shows that in the period 2019-2023, there were 651 incidents of killings, in which 189 civilians, 242 security forces personnel, and 868 terrorists died. However, the 2022-2023 period witnessed 223 incidents of killings in which 42 civilians, 63 security forces personnel, and 288 terrorists were dead.
Terrorism has come down in areas north of the Pir Panjal Range in J&K, primarily because of the heavy deployment of security forces, but more active south of Pir Panjal in the expanse of the thickly forested mountainous region. Pakistan generally resorts to cross-border firing to cover infiltration activities but in terms of targeting villages, its focus shifted to south of Pir Panjal sometime back to target the Hindu population.
There are multiple factors why terrorism would remain alive in J&K, even though the intensity may be reduced. Externally, Pakistan will never give up its proxy war on India and will continue to be supported by China. There is speculation that increasing instability in Pakistan and its worsening economic condition could reduce it to the level of Afghanistan. But such a situation would hardly be good for India. The recent visit of Pakistan’s Army Chief General Javed Asim Umar and Director General Lieutenant General Nadeem Anjum to the US and the reception accorded to them by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland (both viewed as regime change specialists) is significant.
The recent visit of Pakistan’s Army Chief General Javed Asim Umar and Director General of the ISI Lieutenant General Nadeem Anjum to the United States and the reception accorded to them by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland is significant
The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been attacking Pakistani security forces increasingly and is more or less controlling Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and a part of Waziristan. Yet, it is not considered a threat by the US anymore despite labeling it a foreign terrorist organisation in 2010. It is no secret that the US wants to destabilise South Asia similar to what it has been doing in the Middle East/West Asia. America also wants an India-China war to further its own strategic and economic interests, plus facilitate NATO deployment in the Indo-Pacific. Pakistan is a trusted partner in all this, which is why the US is re-energising strategic ties with Pakistan.
A 2023 report by the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team of the UNSC says Al Qaeda is regrouping in Afghanistan and around 200 fighters of Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) are active, who may be planning operations in J&K, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Also, AQIS is grooming an affiliate for Kashmir operations; Afghanistan is becoming the epicentre of global terrorism with some 20 militants groups; the IS supporters in India have recruited and sent some 200 youth to join jihadi organisations abroad, impacting India’s domestic IS network as an important conduit for advice/communication with jihadi organisations in Syria and Afghanistan.
The UN report says the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant-Khorasan Province (ISIL-KP) is the “most serious terrorist threat in Afghanistan and the wider region”. ISIL-KP has developed close links with AQIS and many recruits from India and Pakistan have worked for this network. Further, TTP could become a regional threat if it continues to have safe bases in Afghanistan.
Another special report, ‘The Growing Threat of the Islamic State in Afghanistan and South Asia’, released in June 2023 by the US Institute of Peace (USIP) says the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan poses a terror threat to the region but ISKP is the primary threat, not Taliban or Al Qaeda (sic). It further says the IS presence in South Asia extends beyond Af-Pak to India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Maldives, and Sri Lanka. According to the report, the nexus of AQIS-ISIL-KP has already made forays into India.
It is no secret that the United States wants to destabilise South Asia and also wants an India-China war to further its own strategic and economic interests, plus facilitate NATO deployment in the Indo-Pacific. Pakistan is a trusted partner in all this, which is why the US is re-energising strategic ties with Pakistan
For India, Islamic terrorism is a threat and most of these terrorist organisations are linked underhand with the common agenda to establish an Islamic Emirate to include India and South Asia. Of concern should also be the fact that the US and the UK are hand-in-glove with Pakistan and the US has a history of using terrorist organisations as proxies.
Getting back to the terrorist ambush on December 21 last year in Surankote, a string of operations was witnessed in this area during 2023, in which 55 persons were killed, including 20 army personnel and 28 terrorists. Presently, 25-30 terrorists are estimated in the area but there could be more where aerial surveillance is largely ineffective in the thickly forested region. In 2003, the Army launched Operation ‘Sarp Vinash’ there, which continued from January to May in four phases, using a large number of forces. The main terrorist complex was near the Hilkaka transient centre for Bakarwals. 65 terrorists were killed against the loss of four soldiers.
The Gujjars-Bakkarwals in the region are nationalists but terrorists operating for long require local support, which is sought willingly or under threat of abduction/killings. The recent allegation against the Army for custodial killings of three civilians and torturing six post the Surankote ambush appears a to malign the Army by external and internal elements.
Local ideological support to terrorism would reduce as development progresses in J&K. J&K received Rs 84,544 crore for investment in the last three years but only Rs 2,518 crore has been invested on the ground. This needs speeding up
Concern is being expressed over persistent negative encounters with terrorists wherein the Army is experiencing more losses than before despite the smaller strength of terrorists, even though negative encounters were sporadic in the past with long intervals. In the backdrop of the complex operational environment of J&K coupled with the interplay of improved technologies and evolving tactics of terrorists, some analysts opine that the Army needs recalibration of approach to maintain effectiveness in counter-terrorism.
The fact remains that terrorists always have the initiative with them, for example, an ambush would be sprung only when success is certain. Forested areas are used by terrorists north of the Pir Panjal also where hideouts and temporary shelters can be made away from tracks/trails. The use of IEDs is resorted to. Vehicles passing through hilly wooded terrain are targeted where visual contact with road opening parties is difficult.
The Indian Army has been combating terrorism in J&K since the 1990s and is aware of changes that keep occurring in the operational environment. Rapport with the populace is maintained regularly through Operation ‘Sadbhavna’ but local support to terrorists under threat of lives will remain (just like the LTTE used it in Sri Lanka). Ideological support would reduce as development progresses in J&K. J&K received Rs 84,544 crore investment in the last three years but only Rs 2,518 crore has been invested on the ground. This needs speeding up.
With the increased focus of the external forces to destabilise India, the induction of more hardened, well-trained and equipped foreign fighters (Pakistani regulars included) into J&K should be expected. Some analysts opine that China is behind the heightened terrorist activity in the Rajauri-Poonch area to force India to pull out troops from Ladakh. India relocated some RR troops from J&K to Ladkah to beef up the standoff with China. But that will not happen as additional troops have reportedly already been inducted into J&K from elsewhere.
There are calls for executing Op Sarp Vinash 2.0 and/or another cross-border surgical strike. These would be good but without lasting effect. Induction of another Brigade/Brigade+ in the hill region permanently may or may not be feasible but covert surveillance of terrorist movement inside forested areas is required – as was being practiced by some units in Sri Lanka.
The induction of more hardened, well-trained and equipped foreign fighters (Pakistani regulars included) into J&K should be expected. Some analysts opine that China is behind the heightened terrorist activity in the Rajauri-Poonch area to force India to pull out troops from Ladakh
The most important is to shed our defensive mentality and execute proactive cross-border operations regularly for effective deterrence. It is a pity that our Special Forces, who should primarily be operating across the border, are suffering casualties inside J&K. Porosity of the borders is both ways and we have enough wherewithal to strike across whenever warranted. This should be left to the Army.
The politico-bureaucratic construct in India likes to keep the military at arm’s length from security strategy formulations. They would do well to pay heed to MK Dhar, Joint Director IB, who also served in the Police and wrote in 2005: “The Pakistani establishment is a geopolitical bully. The best response to blunt such a bully is to take the war inside his home. India has allowed itself to be blackmailed by Pakistan even before it went nuclear. The sabre rattling of ‘coercive diplomacy’, which is nothing but sterile military power, cannot convince the Islamist Pakistani Establishment that India can take the border skirmishes inside their homes and hit at the very roots of the jaundiced Islamist groups.”
The link is given below in the footnote. Please do the needful.
Deliberate conspiracy: (https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=bCI3vmwTVuv_VUuB&v=d_4UGBPapJY&feature=youtu.be).
-The author is an Indian Army veteran. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
