In 2015, Russia on the request of the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, launched a blistering air campaign against the rebel forces and the Islamic State (IS) opposing the Assad regime in conjunction with the Iranian ground forces. Over the next two years and after some bitter fighting, Russia and Iran stabilised Assad’s control over major parts of Syria.
The campaign allowed Russia to reassert its presence and influence in the Middle East region, which was on the wane after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The successful military operation in Syria allowed Russia to gain a foot hold around the Mediterranean Sea, demonstrate its military capability, showcase its latest weapon systems to the world and undermine United States’ efforts to depose Assad’s autocratic regime as a part of broader Arab Spring narrative.
This not only augmented Russia’s geopolitical standing globally but deepened its ties with some of the key regional players like, Iran and Hezbollah. However, events took a drastic turn for Russia and Iran in November 2024 as rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), reportedly formed in the year 2011 as an affiliate of Al Qaeda, spearheaded the current offensive leading to the collapse of Assad regime.
HTS is said to have broken ranks with Al Qaida in 2016 and setup a new organisation under the present name and is reportedly being supported by Turkey.
Syria, once part of ancient Assyrian kingdom, has a rich civilisational history and boast of some of the oldest continuous living cities of the world like Damascus and Aleppo. With Turkey to its North, Iraq in the East, Mediterranean Sea to the west and Israel and Jordan to the south, Syria acts as a bridge between Africa and Eurasia.
Population of Syria is majority Sunni and was, till recently, being ruled by Bashar Al Assad, an Alawite from Shia minority. In the complex web of religious and ideological divisions, Syria’s neighbours have aligned themselves on sectarian lines with; Iran supporting Alawites (Shias) led by Bashar Al Assad and Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other countries with Sunni majorities backing the rebels.
Turkey, another major player in the region, enjoyed relatively close ties with Assad’s regime during the first decade of the new millennium, however, relations deteriorated in the aftermath of the violent crackdown by the Assad government during the civil war in 2011.
The relations worsened further as Syrian refugees, almost 3.1 million, as per United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, poured into Turkey creating serious humanitarian and law and order crisis. This led to Turkey severing its ties with the Assad regime and conducting several military incursions, described as preventive measures and a matter of National security, into North Western Syria.
The successful military operation in Syria in 2015, allowed Russia to gain a foot hold around the Mediterranean Sea, demonstrating its military capability, showcasing its latest weapon systems to the world and undermining United States’ efforts to depose Assad’s autocratic regime as a part of the broader Arab Spring narrative
In September 2015, Moscow first time post-1991, intervened directly and decisively in a conflict far away from its mainland, achieving its key objectives and saving Assad’s regime from a quick demise.
The fundamental objective of Putin was to push back against US inspired ‘Liberal World Order’ and not allow another authoritarian regime to be overthrown on the pretext of support to the ‘Democratic Aspirations’ of the Arab World.
The former superpower took a firm stand against the perceived American unilateralism and, in conjunction with Iran and Assad’s forces, established control over Eastern and central Syrian airspace.
As the situation stabilised and Astana Peace process commenced, Russia achieved yet another strategic aspiration, that had eluded it historically, of having a permanent military presence around the warm waters of Mediterranean, by acquiring on lease Tartus Naval and Khmeimien Air bases for the next 49 years.
Along with its presence in Crimea, new bases provided Moscow an ability to project militarily on to the Southern and Eastern flanks of NATO and secure Russia’s interests in the Middle East and North Africa.
It raised Russia’s standing as a stakeholder in the Middle East considerably, leading to other regional satraps viz. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Egypt expanding their military-diplomatic relations with Russia.
Syria was a cornerstone in Iran’s regional policy of axis of resistance consisting of; Assad regime in Syria, Iranian backed militias in Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas, which assisted Iran in extending its authority and establish influence across the Middle East
Apart from geopolitical advantages, Russian intervention in Syria in 2015, which came after series of Military Reforms, provided Russia with the opportunity to test the Battle Field efficiency of its reforms on a live battlefield and demonstrate the effectiveness of its newly inducted weaponry.
Apart from Russia, Syria was a cornerstone in Iran’s regional policy of axis of resistance consisting of; Assad regime in Syria, Iranian backed militias in Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas, which assisted Iran in extending its authority and establish influence across the Middle East.
For Iran, Eastern Syria via Iraq acted as a land bridge between Iran and the Hezbollah in Lebanon and enhanced Iran’s strategic depth to the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. It not only allowed Iran a free movement of resources to its proxies but, allowed it to keep check on the activities of United States in the region.
Incidentally, United States maintains a military presence in Eastern Syria and has Al-Tanf garrison as a part of anti-ISIS mission and for providing support to its allies in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to retain their control in the north-east.
The toppling of the Assad regime and the takeover by the rebel forces in Syria has major political ramifications and in the words of Joe Biden ‘shifted the balance of power in the Middle East’. It has ushered in a period of uncertainty in this strategically located country in the Levant.
Today, Syria finds itself fragmented into the regions controlled by disparate groups, supported by outside powers like Turkey, United States, Russia, Iran and other states of the Middle East. Preoccupation of Russia with its special operations in Ukraine undermined its ability to support the beleaguered Assad regime and Russia could not prevent the end of 50-years rule of the Assad dynasty.
As far as India is concerned, Syria and India have in the past shared close diplomatic, trade and strategic ties. The relationship founded on mutual respect for sovereignty and non-interference, witnessed Syria’s consistent support on India’s position on Kashmir, including revocation of Article 370 in 2019 and India’s pro-Syrian stance on Golan Heights
On the other hand, recent Israeli confrontation with Iran and its proxies, its attack on air defences of Iran and loss of Qasim Solemani and other high profile Iranian or Iranian backed leaders, restricted Iran in mustering adequate forces to come to the rescue of Bashar Al-Assad.
And by the end of first week of December 2024, Iran had embarked upon evacuation of its forces and commanders from Syria. With the Hezbollah command and logistics infrastructure in Lebanon and elsewhere severely decapitated, Iran may face considerable challenge in rebuilding its network in the region.
Russia, for its part, still retains some influence in the region. Apart from its two military bases and huge loans to Assad regime, Russian companies along with Wagner group, rebranded as Africa Corp post the demise of Yevgeny Pirogzin in 2023, have over the years, invested heavily in the Syrian resources to include; minerals, energy, and telecommunications.
Russia will have to redouble its efforts to establish itself with the new regime although, the initial statements by Ahmed Al-Sharaa, head of HTS and the de-facto leader of Syria, made to the Saudi state-owned broadcaster Al Arabiya, seem to be cautiously optimistic for Russia.
In his comprehensive first remarks on 29 December 2024, Ahmed Al-Sharaa reassured Moscow of its continued importance in post-Assad Syria. Referring to the presence of Russian bases he said, “We do not want Russia to depart in a manner unbefitting its longstanding relationship with our country.” He also mentioned that Syria shared “strategic interests” with Russia.
Russia meanwhile, as per some media reports, has already embarked upon thinning out from its military bases and reportedly shifting its assets to its bases in Libya.
As far as India is concerned, Syria and India have in the past shared close diplomatic, trade and strategic ties. The relationship founded on mutual respect for sovereignty and non-interference, witnessed Syria’s consistent support on India’s position on Kashmir, including revocation of Article 370 in 2019 and India’s pro-Syrian stance on Golan Heights.
India may have to watch closely the developments in Syria, leverage its soft power and evaluate avenues for engagement with Syria to include rebuilding of destroyed infrastructure, support relocation of millions of refugees and capacity enhancement in the form of medical, education and food aid
India has always been supportive of an ‘inclusive Syrian-led political process’ to resolve the Syrian conflict through non-military means. Apart from losing a close ally, the fall of Assad government could have serious implications for India’s regional and global interests.
For many years India has been investing in Syria’s infrastructure development aiming to strengthen its ties with this strategically located country. It has extended almost USD 240 million line of credit for the Tishreen thermal power plant project and has signed an agreement for oil and natural gas exploration, with a Canadian firm operating in Syria.
For capacity building of Syrian youth, almost 1500 seats in the undergraduate, postgraduate and PhD programmes have been allocated to Syrian youth over the last few years at Indian educational institutes.
The destabilisation of Syria along with outbreak of war in Gaza could also affect the smooth implementation of the India Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC). On the security front, apart from HTS’s own fundamentalist ideology, its limited control over parts of Syria could give opportunity to other terrorist groups to expand their bases, having ramifications on the wider front including Indian subcontinent.
India may have to watch closely the developments in Syria, leverage its soft power and evaluate avenues for engagement with Syria to include rebuilding of destroyed infrastructure, support relocation of millions of refugees and capacity enhancement in the form of medical, education and food aid.
The writer, Kirti Chakra, AVSM, VSM, is an Indian Army veteran. He has also served as the Indian Military Attaché in Moscow. An accomplished scholar, Maj Gen Mehra specialises in Geopolitics with a focus on Russian Studies and is currently pursuing his PhD in the field, further enriching his depth of knowledge and global perspective
