In the evolving landscape of global geopolitics, the resurgence of the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral framework has emerged as a pivotal development, particularly against the backdrop of escalating US tariffs on India under the Trump administration. As of September 2025, Trump’s imposition of heavy tariffs, initially 25% reciprocal duties escalating to 50% on most Indian products, has strained US-India relations, ostensibly to punish New Delhi for its continued purchase of Russian oil amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. This move, part of a broader strategy to isolate Moscow economically, has inadvertently tilted India’s pivot towards deeper cooperation with Russia and China, revitalising the RIC as a counterweight to Western dominance in Asia.
The RIC, first conceptualised in the late 1990s by Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov as a means to foster a multipolar world order, has aimed to balance US hegemony through collaborative efforts in security, economy, and diplomacy. Today, amid Trump’s aggressive trade policies, this troika is not only regaining relevance but also positioning itself to reshape Asian power dynamics, potentially challenging American influence across the Indo-Pacific and Eurasian regions.
The US tariffs may cost India up to $48 billion in exports and 0.6% of its GDP. Trump’s rhetoric, including calls for the EU to impose 100% tariffs on both India and China, underscores a broader strategy to pressure major buyers of Russian energy, with India and China accounting for nearly 85% of Moscow’s oil exports
The roots of the RIC can be traced back to the post-Cold War era, when Russia sought to reassert its global role by aligning with emerging powers such as India and China. The grouping held its first foreign ministers’ meeting in 2002, evolving into a platform for dialogue on issues ranging from counterterrorism to economic integration. However, the RIC has often been overshadowed by bilateral tensions, particularly the Sino-Indian border disputes that flared in 2020 at Galwan Valley, leading to a hiatus in trilateral engagements. Despite these setbacks, the framework has persisted within larger multilateral forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS, where Russia, India, and China form the core. In recent years, Russia’s ‘no-limits’ partnership with China, declared in 2022, has deepened, with bilateral trade surpassing $240 billion in 2024, fuelled by energy exports and military cooperation.
India, meanwhile, maintained its strategic autonomy, balancing ties with the West while relying on Russia for defence supplies and energy security. The RIC’s revival gained momentum in 2025, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov advocating for its reactivation during SCO preparations, emphasising its role in advancing a multipolar order. Chinese officials have echoed this sentiment, viewing the RIC as a strategic opportunity to counter US-led alliances like the Quad. For India, the push comes at a critical juncture, as US tariffs threaten its economic growth and force a re-evaluation of alliances.
Trump’s approach has backfired, prompting India to seek alternatives. Prime Minister Modi intensified outreach to Russia and China, signalling that India will not succumb to pressures. Trump has softened his tone now, referring to Modi as a ‘very good friend’, but the damage has already catalysed RIC cohesion
Trump’s tariffs on India, enacted through executive orders in August 2025, represent a dramatic escalation in US efforts to curb Russian oil revenues funding the Ukraine war. India, which ramped up Russian crude imports to over 38% of its total in 2024 to stabilise domestic prices amid global volatility, became a prime target. The tariffs, affecting sectors from textiles to pharmaceuticals, could cost India up to $48 billion in exports and shave 0.6% off its GDP, according to economic analyses. Trump’s rhetoric, including calls for the EU to impose 100% tariffs on both India and China, underscores a broader strategy to pressure major buyers of Russian energy, with India and China accounting for nearly 85% of Moscow’s oil exports. However, this approach has backfired, alienating New Delhi and prompting it to seek alternatives. Indian officials have criticised the tariffs as hypocritical, noting that the US itself imports refined products derived from Russian crude processed in India. In response, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has intensified outreach to Moscow and Beijing, signalling that India will not succumb to unilateral pressures. This shift is evident in ongoing trade negotiations with the US, where Trump has softened his tone, referring to Modi as a ‘very good friend’, but the damage has already catalysed RIC cohesion. The 2025 SCO Summit in Tianjin marked a turning point for the RIC, with leaders Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi, and Xi Jinping holding sideline discussions that hinted at a formal revival of the trilateral format.
Amid US tariffs, the summit focused on enhancing connectivity, energy security, and economic resilience within the group. Russia proposed joint infrastructure projects, including the development of the Northern Sea Route for Arctic shipping, which could integrate Iran’s Chabahar Port with Russian Far East initiatives. China, leveraging its Belt and Road Initiative, offered cooperation in renewables and technology, with India’s imports of Chinese solar panels rising 25% in 2025 despite border frictions. Energy remains a cornerstone: India’s discounted Russian oil purchases have saved billions, while China’s role as the largest buyer strengthens the RIC’s bargaining power against Western tariffs. Defence ties are also deepening; India continues to procure Russian S-400 systems and explore SU-57 fighters, while joint military exercises under SCO auspices foster interoperability.Â
Russia, India, and China, converging under the RIC banner, herald a transformative era in Asian geopolitics. While challenges persist, the shared imperative to resist external pressures has injected new vitality into the troika, which could fortify Asia against Western dominance and redefine global power balance
India-China relations remain fraught with unresolved border issues in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, hindering full trust. New Delhi’s participation in US-led groupings like the Quad complicates its RIC engagement, as it seeks to hedge against Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. Russia, while mediating between the two, faces its own constraints from the Ukraine war, relying heavily on China for economic survival. Critics argue that the RIC risks becoming a Sino-Russian-dominated axis, potentially marginalising India and exposing it to greater vulnerabilities. Moreover, internal economic disparities — India’s trade with China and Russia constitutes only 7-8% of its total — limit immediate gains. Despite these hurdles, Trump’s tariffs have provided a common adversary, uniting the trio against perceived Western overreach. Indian analysts view this as an opportunity to assert strategic autonomy, while Russian and Chinese commentators hail it as a step towards Eurasian integration. In Asia, a stronger RIC could profoundly alter regional dynamics. By coordinating on issues like Afghanistan stability, counterterrorism, and maritime security, the group might eclipse US-backed initiatives, fostering a more Asia-centric order. For instance, joint efforts in the Indian Ocean could counterbalance the US Navy’s presence, while enhanced Arctic cooperation opens new trade routes bypassing Western chokepoints. Economically, the RIC could drive infrastructure investments in Central Asia via the SCO, reducing dependence on US-dominated financial systems.
This alignment also appeals to Global South nations, positioning the RIC as champions of multipolarity against unilateral tariffs. However, risks abound: heightened RIC activity might provoke further US retaliation, such as sanctions or restrictions on technology transfers to India. Trump’s calls for EU alignment amplify this, potentially isolating India further if Brussels complies. Ultimately, the convergence of Russia, India, and China under the RIC banner, spurred by Trump’s heavy tariffs on India, heralds a transformative era in Asian geopolitics. While challenges persist, the shared imperative to resist external pressures has injected new vitality into the troika, enabling it to pursue ambitious goals in energy, defence, and economic sovereignty. As Modi, Putin, and Xi navigate this path, the RIC’s strengthening could not only fortify Asia against Western dominance but also redefine global power balances, underscoring the perils of coercive diplomacy in a multipolar world. With ongoing US-India negotiations offering a potential off-ramp, the coming months will determine whether confrontation yields to cooperation or further entrenches divisions.
The writer is Special Advisor for South Asia at Parley Policy Initiative, Republic of Korea. He is a regular commentator on the issues of Water Security and Transboundary River issues in South Asia. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
