There is a proverb that says, “As you sow, so shall you reap”. This best defines Pakistan’s state of confusion and turmoil. Born a nation with a sense of severe insecurity and utter confusion, today it is surrounded by multiple insecurities be it political, economic, social, internal strife, terrorism, or civil-military relationship, threatening its survival as a nation. While much has been written on its recent downslide, its roots lie in the national psyche driven by its historical baggage and strategic culture. This has led to cultural, structural, and religious faultlines which have brought the nation to its knees.

Pakistan’s strategic culture is deeply rooted in its persistent revisionist ideology and fundamental Islamist outlook. It aims to foster nationalism with the predominance of the military and mullah, as a state within a state, professing disruptive policies leading to self-inflicted injuries. These two institutions have an all-pervasive influence in dealing with both internal politics and foreign policy frameworks with an extremist outlook rather than the moderate secular framework. The division of the nation in 1971, its economic collapse, the boomerang of terrorism, multiple internal strifes, and the political instability are all a manifestation of what it sowed since its birth. Added to it, its obsession with Kashmir and the scars of the 1971 humiliation remain deeply embedded in the nation’s haunted psyche. This ghost within dives it to the brink of survival as a state.

These strategic cultural shortcomings leave very little room for Pakistan to abandon its self-destructive path and ushering peace in the sub-continent. Given the enduring nature of Pakistan’s strategic culture, it is thus unwise to expect any change in Pakistan’s behaviour to disruptive revisionist foreign policy, using Islamist militants as a strategic tool and reorientation from Punjab Sunni-dominated suppressive domestic politics. The country thus continues to generate a high-risk strategic instability, impacting its neighbourhood and the world at large. The neorealism is indicative of Pakistan’s continued obsession with destabilising India, continued support to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, and seeking Islamic global leadership, driven by Pak ISI and Islamist agenda.

Added to it, the radicalisation of the Pak Army and its role as the custodian of the ideology of Pakistan and defender of the misplaced interpretation of Islam is ingrained in the historic foundation of the nation. It had ruled Pakistan for more than half a century directly and the balance indirectly. The Pak Army is a state within a state and calls the final shots in a pseudo-democracy since its birth as a nation. A fact stated recently in no uncertain terms by its former PM Imran Khan, who is now being hounded. The Pak Army and its dark wing ISI control all domestic, foreign, and other state policies and have systematically subverted civil institutions like the judiciary.

Pakistan’s faultlines remain multiple and vulnerable which has led it to its present state. The ethnoreligious divide has led to serious fissiparous and separatists tendencies in Sindh, Baluchistan, Gilgit Baltistan, FATA, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and in the Punjabi heartland due to the economic divide and Punjabi domination. According to the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP’s) 2021-22 HDI Report, Pakistan has dropped 7 places to 161st rank in the Human Development Index out of 192 countries. The World Economic Forum in the Global Risk Report says that estimates suggest, over 800,000 hectares of farmland have been wiped out by 2022 floods in Pakistan – this has resulted in increasing commodity prices significantly in a country that is already grappling with a record 27 per cent inflation. Water stress is also widespread in Pakistan, this particularly impacts women and girls responsible for water collection and agriculture, with severe impacts on health, food, and education outcomes.

The year 2023 has been possibly the most trying time for Pakistan apart from the 1971 humiliation. Pakistan has been convulsed by high inflation, dismal growth, defaulting loans, and political stress with widespread unrest and violence – a potpourri for civil unrest and the collapse of democracy. The present political instability and polarisation during the election year, at a time when Pakistan is facing its worst economic crisis in history, is tearing the nation apart, putting it on edge. This has raised regional and global concerns about its impact, especially as a nuclear state going rogue. Pakistan’s power-hungry individuals and greedy institutions will never put the ‘Nation Above All’.

While the debate is whether Pakistan will disintegrate or not, the reality is, how very much it may try, the world will not allow it to disintegrate or go rogue. So, the pragmatism in the debate is – “Is a weaker fragile Pakistan better than a strong cohesive Pakistan?” While it has many debatable angles to it, both for the region and globe, a weak dependent yet stable Pakistan will be less hostile and better leveraged for regional and global stability.

While the October elections are unlikely to change the direction of the country, Pakistan needs a cultural and structural transformation to address its religious, social, political, diplomatic, energy, and economic faultlines. While there are no easy solutions to these challenges, the government, civil society, and international partners must work together to identify and implement viable solutions to keep Pakistan’s head above the water with democracy taking its roots. It may be a utopian thought but that’s the only way to see the light at the end of a never-ending tunnel.

In the Indo-Pak context, belligerence against India and fueling proxy war under the nuclear umbrella is here to stay as part of its state policy and the Pak Army’s legitimacy. Traditionally, whenever there has been a crisis in Pakistan, the diversion has been fueling the proxy war / escalating trans-border firing. However, the possibility of a spillover to limited war, while in the realm of possibilities, is unlikely in the present times. Thus, India needs to take a cue from the Israeli strategy of “mowing the lawn”, with periodic assured kinetic and non-kinetic retribution, as part of punitive deterrence, to ensure the cost of waging proxy war for Pakistan is made prohibitive. Simultaneously it needs to add capacities to its overt and covert manifestations. Thus politico-diplomatic dissuasion, economic coercion, and punitive assured retribution must presently achieve the desired objectives, to keep an irate Pakistan weak and under check. It may not be the right time to talk, with proxy war being unleashed and political turmoil, yet ultimately conditions will have to be built for opening constructive communication channels beyond Track Two. Till then, it must be a “wait, watch, guard, and deter” policy against Terroristan.

-The author is a PVSM, AVSM, VSM has had an illustrious career spanning nearly four decades. A distinguished Armoured Corps officer, he has served in various prestigious staff and command appointments including Commander Independent Armoured Brigade, ADG PP, GOC Armoured Division and GOC Strike 1. The officer retired as DG Mechanised Forces in December 2017 during which he was the architect to initiate process for reintroduction of Light Tank and Chairman on the study on C5ISR for Indian Army. Subsequently he was Consultant MoD/OFB from 2018 to 2020. The Officer is a reputed defence analyst, a motivational speaker and prolific writer on matters of military, defence technology and national security.The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily carry the views of Raksha Anirveda.