The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has debunked the stories of radiation leaks in Pakistan. This denial has come after four days. If so, then why didn’t big-mouthed Pakistani ministers and Generals carry out their nuclear threat? Or is it that Pakistan was so disarmed that it was turned ‘toothless’ to do so? The IAEA could be attempting to mask something hitherto unknown to the world in general and South Asia in particular.
Question arises, if no radiation had taken place and India had Pakistan ‘on its knees’, why didn’t Prime Minister Narendra Modi go for the ultimate ‘kill’? Why did he opt for the ‘stoppage’ of the operation? What is the secret? Was he pressurised by US President Donald Trump, who boasts of having mediated the ‘ceasefire’? Is there some other reason? Of course, there is something more to it. Can Pakistan and the US be trusted? It may be a gamble. I will analyse it and find a plausible answer here.
IAEA’s statement was hiding more than it was revealing. Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif says General Asim Munir rang him up at 02.30 am on May 10, to inform him of the Indian strike on Noor Khan Airbase. Something more than a mere strike must have happened, which would have rattled the Pakistan Army Chief. Who does not know that Kahuta, the nuclear base and NCA (National Command Authority) were just 5 km away from Noor Khan Base? Kahuta was suspected to have some low-yield nuclear devices for instant use.
Did some device poop off and fear of radiation take place? It is now learnt that Indian BRAHMOS missiles struck 11 important airbases of Pakistan on the intervening night of May 9/10, 2025. Three of these 11 bases – Noor Khan (Chakala near Rawalpindi), Sargodha and Jacobabad – were significant.
Noor Khan Airbase is close to Kahuta, wherein Pakistan has a nuclear enrichment plant. It is also alleged that it houses Pakistan’s nuclear assets, possibly, ready to be used TNWs (Tactical Nuclear Weapons) in a mated state. It is also alleged that Noor Khan Airbase keeps some pilots on standby duty for immediate action. Any strike on this base deprives Pakistan of its immediate response. It denies Pakistan the immediate use of TNWs.
Sargodha Airbase is close to Kirana Hills, which probably houses nuclear assets in de-mated states in some 6-7 tunnels. There are allegations by local people through videos that some strike has taken place there. It is also alleged that probably some radiation leakage has taken place – because villagers are being shifted and relocated to some other places. Sargodha Airbase houses F-16 fighter aircraft capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Another significant BRAHMOS strike was at Jacobabad Airbase. It is next to Chugai Hills. It may be noted that Pakistan carried out its nuclear explosions there in May 1998, in response to an Indian experiment. It allegedly has an underground nuclear storage facility for de-mated nuclear devices.
The question arises why did India go up the escalation ladder in striking 11 Airfields? They are all important targets and pose a serious threat to India. One must see India’s attack in view of unabated sabre rattling by Pakistani leadership of the nuclear strike. It had been causing much concern to make India sit up and take counter-action. There is no gain in saying the fact that India was watching Pakistan from the skies. According to ISRO chief, it had employed 10 satellites to keep constant watch over any unusual activities around suspected nuclear sites in Pakistan.
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif says General Asim Munir rang him up at 2:30 am on May 10 to inform him of the Indian strike on Noor Khan Airbase. More than a mere strike must have happened, which rattled the Pakistani Army Chief. The Kahuta nuclear base, just 5 km away from Noor Khan Base, was suspected to have some low-yield nuclear devices for instant use
Two points ought to be noted. One is that Indian ‘eyes in the sky’ picked up some movement/activity around Kirana Hills, Noor Khan Airbase and Chugai Hills, on the midnight of May 9, 2025. The second point was more serious when Pakistan fired a ballistic missile towards New Delhi. It was intercepted and destroyed over Sirsa in Haryana. It led to speculation that it could be anything dangerous. It was probably, a testing attempt to see its penetration through Indian air defence. Pakistan’s repeated sabre rattling of nuclear attacks had led India to strike at 11 Air bases to pre-empt any Pakistani misadventure. It was a warning cum ‘near-damage’.
Now comes the crucial question, whether radiation leakage took place or not? It seems, it did, may be at a low scale but enough to create a scare. This is why the US King Air 350 ER arrived in Pakistan within hours of Indian strikes. The arrival of Boron-loaded IL-76 aircraft from Egypt landing at Noor Khan further confirms it. King Air 350 ER measures radiations in the air and Boron mollifies radio activity. It is fed in nuclear reactors to control radioactivity.
Also, please note that JD Vance, US Vice President, does a volte-face within hours of his now infamous statement that the Indo-Pak war was not US business. It has been further vindicated by some images released by Chinese satellite firm ‘Mirzaz Vision’. It was revealed that the precise strikes by India had destroyed infrastructure around Noor Khan Airbase and its surrounding areas. It shocked Asim Munir and he rang up Shehbaz Sharif.
Massive craters were seen near the airbase. Note that Kahuta, the motherboard of Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructure, was just 5 km away from Noor Khan Airbase. A suspected radiation activity had taken place. Else, what was the reason for Pakistan to activate its contacts in the CIA and the US army to mediate for a ‘ceasefire’? It was not the damage to 11 airbases but its nuclear stockpile at Kahuta and the hills around. Who does not know about the CIA-ISI nexus?
IAEA’s statement after four days is a cover-up plan to mislead the world. It may be that with the use of Boron coming in plane loads from Egypt, some kind of control has been achieved. Therefore it is a misleading statement by the IAEA, controlled by the USA, to hide the facts. IAEA has no business to make such a statement without sending a fact-finding team. There were no such indications. It has stated what the USA wanted it to say.
It seems the United States did not expect India’s determination to cross Pakistan’s red line. Mumbai-26/11, Kargil-1999 and Parliament-2001 were adequate examples to make this deduction. When India struck closer to Kirana Hills and Chugai Hills, the CIA was activated, probably at the behest of the Pakistan Army, which has deeper connections with the CIA
Then, a question arises what made Prime Minister Narendra Modi go for sudden ‘stoppage’ of further actions? Was it the fear of escalation to nuclear exchange? Wasn’t it inherent in the launching of Operation Sindoor? Then what was it? It was known to Prime Minister Modi and his team about the ‘strategic irrationality’ of Pakistan. To leave a ‘wounded snake to heal’ is a dangerous proposition. But it seems someone has given the surety to annul this ‘irrationality’ of Pakistan. This is it, then. I have a theory which attempts to explain this.
It seems the USA did not expect India’s determination to cross Pakistan’s red line. Mumbai-26/11, Kargil-1999 and Parliament-2001 were adequate examples to make this deduction. When the strikes took place closer to Kirana Hills and Chugai Hills, the CIA was activated, probably at the behest of the Pakistan military, which has deeper connections with the Pakistan Army. This is how the CIA had got the Pakistan-China CPEC programme stalled, through its contacts in Pakistan Army.
I believe that the intel agency of a nation, whether CIA, ISI or even Mossad, are more powerful than the political leadership. I wonder if JD Vance and Donald Trump had any idea of US nukes being distributed in key locations like Turkey, Poland and Pakistan. Even if I accept that Chugai Hills and Kirana Hills nuclear devices were not US assets, the fact is known that their ‘detonation codes’ rest with the USA. Those detonation codes were a must to use the device, which Pakistan did not have. Either Pakistan had requested for these codes, which alerted the USA or Pakistan might have asked the USA to persuade India to stop further operations. It may be noted that Pakistani assets at Kahuta, if not destroyed, were turned unapproachable and unusable by the strikes.
When Trump and Vance came to know of Indian strikes close to or at Chugai Hills and Kirana Hills, they contacted Prime Minister Modi. I understand that the US Vice President might have told Prime Minister Modi about the real facts of Kirana Hills and Chugai Hills assets. It seems the USA has given some kind of assurance to India that the USA won’t give ‘detonation codes’ or allow Pakistan their custody. In fact, the statement by Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh in Srinagar on May 15 that the nuclear assets of Pakistan be placed under the supervision of IAEA, most likely flows from the probable assurance by the USA.
India should not call it victory too soon because the monstrous Pak army still holds ground. Ravana Abhi Bhi Jinda Hai. India should be on its toes because Pakistan Army and its ‘Jihadi Generals’ can go to any length to seek revenge for Operation Sindoor. They can pass on the know-how or even a low-yield device to Jihadi outfits, who might employ a ‘Fidayeen’ to target a major city or a metro
This assurance, probably, made Prime Minister Modi relent. But it also gave him the confidence to publicly announce on May 13, 2025, that nuclear blackmail, hereafter, would not be tolerated. It is understandable, but it would be a big folly to take Pakistan’s Mullah-dominated Army lightly. Its expertise in fooling others, including the USA, cannot be ignored. Pakistan has the nuclear know-how and undoubtedly, it has supporters in the West, who would help it financially. The problem with India and its leadership is that magnanimity, mercy and forgetfulness dominate them in all walks of life.
Therefore, do not call it victory too soon because monstrous Pak army still holds grounds. Ravana Abhi Bhi Jinda Hai. India should be on its toes because Pakistan Army and its ‘Jihadi Generals’ can go to any length to seek revenge for Operation Sindoor. It can pass on the know-how or even give a low-yield device to one of its Jihadi outfits, who might employ a ‘Fidayeen’ to sneak and target a major city or a metro.
The danger of a ‘dirty bomb’ will always be there. Remember the words of Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Ashif, “If we don’t live; no one else will live in the world.” This is the mental psyche of its leaders. The world, in general, and India in particular, must remember: “Monstrous Army is still alive to play the dirty game in future.” रावण अभी जिंदा है और “सीता” (पाकिस्तानी जनता) उसकी जेल में है। (Ravana is still alive and Sita (Pakistani public) is still in his captivity.)
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
