Seoul. Security officials and analysts are watching for signs that North Korea may potentially use an upcoming holiday event to test fire an underwater-launched ballistic missile following a flurry of activities at a key base. Pyongyang could also use the event to unveil or test new weapons including its new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), said a top South Korean military official.
The development comes in the midst long-stalled negotiations between the United States and North Korea.
Potential launch of SLBM
Ahead of the potential launch, Won In-choul, the nominee for chairman of South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, has informed lawmakers that North Korea has been repairing recent typhoon-related damage at its north-eastern Sinpo shipyard, where it builds submarines.
Formations of troops have also been observed practicing for what is likely to be a major military parade on October 10, marking the 75th anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea. According to a copy of Won In-choul’s remarks provided by Kang Dae-sik, a lawmaker, the South Korean military is keeping a close tab on the location.
According to observers, North Korea is likely to showcase its biggest missiles for the first time since 2018. Security officials have cautioned against rushing to conclusions saying, there is no conclusive evidence of an impending launch.
In recent years, Pyongyang has been pushing to acquire the ability to launch SLBMs with experts worrying since such weapons are more difficult to detect before launch. In October 2019, North Korea had done an underwater missile launch test, in the first one-of-its-kind in three years. It was the provocative weapons test since the famished nation entered nuclear negotiations with the United States in 2018.
Nuclear talks between the two have made little headway following the second summit in early 2019 over disputes of US-led sanctions against North Korea.
After several typhoons made landfall in North Korea in early September, photo analysis of the shipyard shows a flurry of activities, including ones in a secure basin where a barge used in previous underwater missile launches is docked.
“We’re monitoring developments, as there is a possibility that a submarine-launched ballistic missile test will be conducted there using ejection equipment shortly after the repair is done,” said Won In-choul.
By way of deception
According to the head of Seoul-based Korea Defense Study Forum Jung Changwook, Pyongyang could perform a SLBM test to upgrade its nuclear attack capabilities and use it as a tactics to add pressure on Washington for potential forthcoming negotiations, after the November 2020 US Presidential elections.
South Korean officials, including incoming South Korean defense minister General Suh Wook, have taken a cautious approach saying an SLBM test was unlikely since there is too little time to prepare ahead of the anniversary. The approach mirrors ongoing speculation that North Korea’s potential missile test before the anniversary of the founding of its ruling Workers’ Party on October 10 is aimed at adding pressure on the US rather than celebrating its state anniversary.
On September 22, Daily NK, a Seoul-based website that specializes on reporting on North Korea, cited an anonymous source near the shipyard saying the site “is bustling with activity to prepare for the ballistic missile launch.”
On September 21, US-based think tank, 38 North had reported “heavy activity” at the shipyard based on imagery analysis; it also stated, “no other indicators of launch preparations were observed.” the next day it reported that a missile barge, which had disappeared from view following the typhoons, had reappeared.
While the activity suggests some kind of work is being done on the missile barge, it is consistent with basic repair and maintenance work after the storm, said Dave Schmerler, a senior researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
According to some experts, North Korea is unlikely to conduct any major weapons test in the near future since it is grappling with multiple crises, including the Coronavirus pandemic which led to the closing of its border with China, its biggest trading partner, typhoon damage, as well as strong US-led sanctions.
On September 4, the Center for Strategic and International Studies reported basing itself on satellite imagery that, activity at Sinpo that was “suggestive, but not conclusive, of preparations for an upcoming test of a Pukguksong-3 submarine launched ballistic missile from the submersible test stand barge.”
In the past, North Korea’s underwater-launched missile tests were conducted from a submersible barge with a single launch tube and not a functioning submarine, said foreign experts.
In July 2019, North Korea’s state media had reported that Kim had inspected a newly built submarine which according to observers was Pyongyang’s most sophisticated model featuring several launch tubes.
According to Jung, the potentially upcoming test is also likely to be from a barge and not from its new submarine, since North Korea is unlikely want to provoke Washington too much. The missile will most likely have a potential range of 185-310 miles (300-500 kilometers), and thus pose no direct threat to the US mainland.
Despite the fact that the nuclear talks with Washington are in deadlock, Pyongyang has not conducted any nuclear or long-range missile tests, in an apparent bid to keep chances for a resumption of diplomacy alive.
In October 2019, a successful test-firing of North Korea’s Pukguksong-3 missile did not elicit any major reaction from Washington. The Trump Administration has held up the absence of intercontinental ballistic missile and nuclear tests by North Korea since 2017 as a diplomatic success; Washington has played down North Korea’s short-range missile launches.
Almost a fortnight ago, the commander of US military forces in South Korea said, while North Korea could potentially roll out a new weapons system, there are no indications that it is looking at “lashing out”, ahead of its expected military parade.
-The writer is a defence and security industry consultant having varied experience working with medium and large companies majorly in European market. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
