While the whole world was watching the shocking images coming out of Nepal on 9th September where the youth, frustrated with the government, had taken the law into their own hands, another shock was in the offing later in the evening.
Out of nowhere, unprovoked and many would say uncalled for, Israeli fighter jets launched missiles into Doha, Qatar, targeting a building where senior Hamas officials had gathered to discuss and consider the latest ceasefire proposal mooted by the US, just a day ago.
Initial reports indicated that Israeli strike had succeeded in taking out the senior leadership of Hamas including Palestinian chief negotiator Khalil Al-Hayya. However, it was later confirmed that although six Hamas people were killed, most of the senior leadership escaped unhurt as they were not present in the building when the missiles struck.
Israel’s PM Netanyahu was quick to issue a statement that the strike was “a wholly independent Israeli operation. Israel initiated it, Israel conducted it, and Israel takes full responsibility”. The statement was issued almost too quickly as if to shield the US and President Trump from the aftershocks of the strike, which has been condemned almost universally across the globe.
The failed attack however, raises serious questions on the global order (which already is in a state of total collapse), sanctity of international borders, territorial integrity and nation’s sovereignty, dangers of being a mediator in a regional/global conflict as Qatar is realising now, the gains or futility of such attacks in ending prolonged wars and perhaps, most of all, whether ‘might is right’ and ‘winner takes all’ will be the new norm, going forward, in world affairs.
While this may not be the last that the world has heard of Israel violating global norms and striking inside sovereign nations at will, there are a few important threads to be considered.
Out of nowhere, unprovoked and many would say uncalled for, Israeli fighter jets launched missiles into Doha, Qatar, targeting a building where senior Hamas officials had gathered to discuss and consider the latest ceasefire proposal mooted by the US, just a day ago
The Complicity of the US
It is no secret that the US and especially President Donald Trump, have vowed unequivocal support to Israel in the Gaza War, right from the start. It is also not a secret that Israel will not be able to continue the war if the US withdraws material and moral support to Israel’s war in Gaza. However, it is the deceit and duplicity that is more enraging than the support itself.
The US presented a new ceasefire plan to Hamas and Israel on 7-8 September, giving Hamas leadership 48 hours to agree to it, as a final warning. The Hamas leadership was convened to discuss the proposal on 9th September when Israel struck.
Sounds familiar to an earlier script? The same script was in play in June too, when the US announced that the US and Iran would be holding the fifth and perhaps conclusive talks on the Iran nuclear deal on 15th June.
Lulled into complacency perhaps and thus lured into the trap, Iran was struck by Israel on 13th June, sabotaging any chances of fruitful talks or any deal. The US, instead of rebuking Israel, was complicit enough to assist Israeli jets in their continued strikes over the next 12 days, intercepted incoming missiles from Iran and on 24th June, even obliged Israel in dropping the GBU-57, deep penetrating bunker bursting bombs on the Fordow Nuclear plant of Iran.
Coming to the attack inside Qatar on 9th September, the US pleaded that it came to know of the Israeli attack merely 10 minutes before the missiles struck. The Al Udeid Air Base in Doha, is the largest American military base in the region and serves as the forward headquarters for US Central Command, also known as CENTCOM, which controls US military operations in the entire region.
One of the key functions of this base is its self-defence and in the larger security umbrella across the region, is surveillance and air defence. Both these functions are 24×7, 365 days a year. Plus, they have the most modern systems, to say the least.
To imagine that such systems would require a phone call to know of an incoming missile, is embarrassing to say the least. Also, the Israeli jets flew more than 1,500 Km to Qatar to fire the missiles which would have entailed air to air refuelling which again, the US only provides.
Two lessons are clear therefore to the regional countries especially Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, and Egypt. Firstly, if the red lines that are drawn are not acted upon when violated, then a future catastrophe is waiting around the corner
Is it then the case that the US air-defence and surveillance systems require a phone call to be activated and its refuellers refuel Israeli jets international air space just for fun?
What Should the Regional Countries Do?
It is not only Qatar but the entire region which is in a state of shock. Violating Iranian territory in June 2025 may have been a different case as Iran and Israel had been exchanging blows earlier too.
But Qatar, which has been mediating the ceasefire deal and hosting rival delegations over the past two years, being targeted, is a shock. Also, the statement from Israel’s Knesset Speaker that this strike is a message to the entire region which was soon followed by PM Netanyahu threatening Qatar and any other country with more strikes (if required), is a chilling reminder to the regional countries of what can await them too.
The futility of American security guarantees too has been brutally exposed, not for the first time too. It may be recalled that the Houthis from Yemen had successfully fired missiles and drones into Saudi Arabian oil fields in September 2019 and the Abu Dhabi airport in January 2022.
Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have maintained an ambivalent position in the Gaza War and have in fact, assisted Israel in moving cargo and goods and even use of their air space to its fighters, in the hope and expectation that the war in Gaza will end soon and that the normalisation with Israel could then progress
Even in the on-going Gaza conflict, when the Houthis blocked the passage of ships across the Red Sea, the entire American naval might was unable to dislodge the threat. On top of it, is the American policy since the mid-2010s, pronounced during President Obama’s term, of disengagement from the region and not putting any American boots on ground in a regional conflict.
Two lessons are clear therefore to the regional countries especially Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, and Egypt. Firstly, if the red lines that are drawn are not acted upon when violated, then a future catastrophe is waiting around the corner.
It may be recalled that Jordan had drawn a red line at the start of the Gaza War with regards to violation of its air space and pushing of refugees into Jordan.
Also, Egypt had announced that taking over Rafah was a red line which could invite reaction. Israel has violated both these and many more red lines with impunity without any fear of reprisal.
Similarly, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have maintained an ambivalent position in the Gaza War and have in fact, assisted Israel in moving cargo and goods and even use of their air space to its fighters, in the hope and expectation that the war in Gaza will end soon and that the normalisation with Israel could then progress.
However, the visit of UAE’s president to Qatar on 10th September to express solidarity and the strong statement from Saudi Arabia expressing full solidarity and support to Qatar, placing all its capabilities at its disposal, are an indication that the reality of the situation is perhaps dawning onto them now.
What can they do? A unified military action akin to the 1973 Yom Kippur war is most unlikely, given the almost non-existent security forces in these countries, having purchased their sovereign security through (non-existent) American guarantees.
It is also clear that the promise of normalisation which was the whole purpose of the Abraham Accords, signed five years ago in September 2020, too has been deeply subverted by Israel. What can however act as a telling deterrent is taking collective economic and diplomatic measures which could isolate Israel in the region. The regional countries have to also collectively think hard and long on the utility or futility of American military presence in the region, if at the end of the day, what they are going to get as a safety net is – no safety at all.
India too finds itself in a very delicate predicament as it enjoys a very close and strategic partnership with Israel on multiple fronts, especially security and modern technology. Just a day prior to the attack in Qatar, India and Israel had successfully concluded a Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) too
The Indian Predicament
India too finds itself in a very delicate predicament as it enjoys a very close and strategic partnership with Israel on multiple fronts, especially security and modern technology. Just a day prior to the attack in Qatar, India and Israel had successfully concluded a Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) too.
Having championed the cause for a stable and rule-based world order, India cannot condone Israeli action in Qatar. However, its close ties with Israel also inhibit it from condemning it outrightly unlike many other western countries like the UK, France, Spain who have outrightly condemned Israel.
It was perhaps due to this that the initial statement from the Ministry of External Affairs expressed ‘concern’ while the later tweet from PM Modi ‘condemned the violation of sovereignty of the brotherly state of Qatar’, without however naming Israel.
It may be recalled that earlier too, India has been caught in a similar bind with respect to Israel. On 14th June when the SCO initially issued a statement condemning Israel for its attack in Iran, India distanced itself from it, but was a signatory of the joint statement issued at the SCO Summit on 31st August in Tianjin, China where the SCO clearly condemned the US and Israel for its attacks into Iran.
As an emerging global power and the fastest growing economy, India is being sought after for leadership roles in the world. India is also respected for its insistence on following the global norms and respect for rules-based order, even at great cost to it sometimes.
In such a scenario, it may be worthwhile for India to offer an objective assessment on regional and global affairs even if it means a mild ‘wrap on the knuckles’ to close friends, sometimes.
Where Does it Leave the Gaza War?
The war in Gaza meanwhile drags on. Israel has intensified its operations in Gaza city, bringing down huge buildings in precision air strikes. With blockade continuing, the state of starvation and deaths is becoming critical with each passing day.
Already, more than 64,000 people have died in Gaza due to Israeli operations while 20 living Israeli hostages in Hamas captivity look at an uncertain future due to lack of a ceasefire deal. Reports of unarmed civilians being shot while collecting food is adding to the allegations of a planned genocide in Gaza.
On the other hand, ceasefire efforts are not bearing any results. While Hamas had accepted the previous ceasefire proposal in August which would have meant a 60-day ceasefire and return of half the hostages, Israel is adamant that all hostages should be released in one go without any assurances of ending the war.
Any hopes of an early ceasefire have now evaporated with Qatar being targeted as it is most unlikely to host any such talks soon while the Hamas obviously will not trust the US or Israel anytime soon.
Going Forward
The Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has vowed to pursue enemies of Israel anywhere anytime, akin to what the US did after 9/11. However, there are few things that Israel may do well to consider.
Instead of continuing the war without a realistic end-goal in mind, it may be worthwhile for Israel to consider a solution that brings its hostages back home while instituting measures in conjunction with the regional and global players to ensure security and co-existence in the future
The US was in Afghanistan for 20 years and yet it did not achieve any decisive victory. At the end of it, it had to withdraw from Afghanistan in August 2021 in a very embarrassing situation, leaving the Taliban back in power.
Curiously, Qatar had hosted the Taliban too, where the US-Taliban peace deal was made in February 2020. Is Israel also looking at an unending and prolonged war in Gaza lasting years? Does it have the stamina or resources for it? Is it ready for a scenario where, at the end of it all, Hamas (like Taliban) will be back in power?
The missile attack into Qatar has raised many critical questions. While Israel has the right to seek justice for the 7th October terror attack, such attacks violating the territorial integrity of sovereign countries is unacceptable.
Instead of continuing the war without a realistic end-goal in mind, it may be worthwhile to consider a solution that brings its hostages back home while instituting measures in conjunction with the regional and global players to ensure security and co-existence in the future.
The writer is a Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation, New Delhi. His X Handle is @rajeev1421. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily carry the views of Raksha Anirveda
