Firm Ideas: The arrival of President Donald Trump in the White House has led to a spate of directives and decisions from the US administration, which has shaken the global geopolitics. The speed and impact of each of the briefs flying out of the State Department is breathtakingly leaving many national capitals gasping for breath. In a way, President Trump has stood by his words often articulated during his campaign trails. This must have been shocking for many in Europe or Asia, the two most prominent conflict zones today, to see Trump as President. Not to forget the doomsday predictions some have made during the elections about how the US may change the long-established course of global conduct.
The issue is, that far-reaching directives with global impact appear to have come sooner than expected. The threats of raising trade tariffs with China, relocation of the Palestinian population out of Gaza, renaming of Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, the crackdown on ‘illegal migrants’, putting NATO on notice for defence spending, and BRICS for attempt towards de-dollarisation, swift withdrawal from WHO, bundling down USAID and many more. It’s still early days for the new administration and if the pace is any indication President Trump seems to be in a hurry with his firm ideas.
Reopening Communication
Interestingly, the US didn’t waste any time in reopening lines of communication with the Kremlin. The direct conversation between President Trump and President Putin was reported on multiple occasions while the larger posturing was still continuing. It surely merits attention that communication at the highest political level only happens when the ground settings have been adequately laid down. Implying a basic understanding of viewpoints and ways forward have been achieved by their foreign offices. The conversation between President Trump and President Putin was highly anticipated but the way it has manifested has the making of some serious outcome in the near future.
President Trump while interacting with reporters curiously observed the fate of Ukraine as to be “Russia someday”. He dropped a hint about the way the US perceives this ongoing conflict. The statements have far-reaching implications for Ukraine, Europe, Russia and of course US-Russia relations, so crucial for maintaining global balance. President Trump has unambiguously made it clear he means business and on his own terms. This new US outlook towards a stressful Ukraine war has the making for a resolution for sure.
Interestingly, the US didn’t waste any time to reopen communication lines with the Kremlin. The direct conversation between President Trump and President Putin was reported on multiple occasions while the larger posturing was continuing
War-Closing Options
The question comes whether the US has abandoned Ukraine’s cause or given up on sensitivity towards European security. The short answer is No. What President Trump is pursuing has more to do with ground realities along with some of his gut feelings which many would want to debate. The Ukraine war presents certain factual realities, even if seen from either side of the divide. Let’s analyse certain existing evidence; has the US and the whole of NATO been able to force an end to this war even after three years of ‘isolating’ Russia? Has the ‘catastrophic sanctions’ crumbled Rubal and Russian economy? Has Russia been turned into an outcast at global forums? Has Russia collapsed under its internal conflicts as some have predicted? Has President Putin’s standing in Russia become untenable? Is Ukraine winning even after pumping billions of dollars and military aid from the West? Strangely all have a common answer ‘NO’, none of it is true.
If Russia has been blamed for not defining its war-closing options, the same is true with Europe. After all the hush and cacophony, Europe has identified a ‘realistic’ war-closing option. If Europe still believes that making statements of solidarity by its leaders standing alongside President Zelensky in Kyiv will really force Russia to withdraw and revert to the pre-February 2022 status quo, then someone has to stand and shake things up. For every Dollar and Euro dumped in Ukraine, Russia would have probably spent at least double the Rouble and sacrificed its soldiers on the bloody battlefield! It’s never going to be a simple paperwork. Sooner the reality dawns, the earliest world will likely see the end of this war. President Trump is known for his in-your-face hard-nosed diplomacy, so it’s hardly thus a surprise that he is calling “Talks to end war in Ukraine start now”.
Whether the US has abandoned Ukraine’s cause or given up on sensitivity towards European security? The short answer is No. What Trump is pursuing has more to do with ground realities and his gut feelings which many would want to debate
Unqualified Support
Europe has been facing internal turmoil even before the change of guard in the US. The slowing of the economy, the rising price of energy, and the expanding cost of the Ukraine war. It seems the Ukraine war has exacted a rather serious cost both on military and political fronts for the West. It also is a cause of hurt on the European psyche that despite the weight of their celebrated military alliance, NATO, and collective economic might they have been pushed into a seemingly helpless corner. They need American backing in any of the major actions they ever wish to undertake military or non-military, realistic or symbolic. The US surely knows this as much and has been very selective in extending unqualified support on critical issues like NATO’s direct conflict with Russia. While the US is bound by NATO’s Article 5, it is clearly deciding about the level of confrontation it wants to get dragged into.
President Trump seems to pursue a policy of “America First” and doesn’t wish to play second fiddle to Europe on any of the issues as serious as the confrontation with Russia. His communication with the Russian President has been a signalling for Ukraine to somber down rhetorical expectations. Similar are the pointers for Europe they cannot endlessly keep funding this war and turn NATO into a bottomless giant. The quantum of military aid that has been dumped in Ukraine has severely restricted European war reserves ultimately hitting NATO’s war-waging capacity. President Trump also seems to have taken some ‘corrective measures’ since the final days of the previous administration that authorised the firing of US-made ATACMS ballistic missiles into Russia. Trump administration seems to have quietly expressed non-approval for the same. The last reported use of US missiles by Ukraine was on January 14, 2025, a week before the new dispensation took charge in the US. Ukraine reportedly had fired six ATACMS missiles and eight UK-made Storm Shadow into Russia, all of which were promptly claimed to have been downed by Russian air defences.
Pursuing the ‘America First’ policy, Trump doesn’t wish to play second fiddle to Europe on any of the issues as serious as the confrontation with Russia. His communication with Putin hints at Ukraine to somber down rhetorical expectations
The emerging perception in Washington appears to advocate slowly limiting European involvement while squeezing US support to the Ukraine front. President Trump’s opening of diplomatic communication is another indication of understanding Russian acceptability for a ceasefire or armistice that prevents an outright humiliation for Ukraine. President Trump’s statements are notably not random on this issue he had nudged Zelensky to undertake a strong battlefield reality check and get over the ‘we will win the war’ campaign on social media. All this may still need hard-nosed diplomacy to fetch the end result, but for sure Russia in all likelihood would be deeply involved at the highest level. What an irony it may be, quick recall to November 2021 when Russia’s diplomatic proposals were thrown in trash bins over this issue. Europe would be preparing to return to the same table but with lots of damage to real estate and ballooned egos.
-The writer has varied experience in the security paradigm and is a keen follower of global geopolitics. His work has been regularly featured in national publications. Visit newsanalytics.in to access more articles from the author. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
