Tel Aviv: Iran is approaching the capability of launching intercontinental ballistic missiles. According to an analysis written by senior defence analyst Tal Inbar, the recent launch of this country’s spy satellite, Iran will very soon be capable of launching an Intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that can reach the US carrying a warhead weighing hundreds of kg.

The satellite was launched on January 20.  The launcher put “Suraya”- a ~50 kg satellite to a LEO of 750 km perigee and inclination of 64.51°.

Inbar points to the rear stabilised small fins of the launcher that improve static stability during 1st stage boost and probably – roll control. According to the Israeli analyst based on the available open-source information, the three stages QAEM100 launcher might serve as a prototype of an Iranian ICBM. QAEM-100 is being launched from a mobile launcher – TEL. The missile configuration is a compact 3 stages missile. Iran, according to Inbar solved all separations and ignition phases.

“Modifying QAEM-100 into an ICBM will require some additional work: Development of operational Re-entry Vehicle ( RV ), a small 4th stage for precise energy manoeuvre, relying on GNSS data and/or star tracker,” according to Inbar.

In the absence of dimensions or weight breakdown, experts can hardly perform any quantity calculation or simulation. The Iranians claim that they have achieved a 750 km orbit with 50 kg (option for 80 kg.) satellite.

“If this was done in a direct ascent method, then it might support assessments that a similar missile can carry an RV of about half a ton to Intercontinental ranges,” said Tal Inbar.