India finds itself in a precarious geopolitical situation, surrounded by a volatile neighbourhood that significantly challenges its external security management. To the west, Pakistan teeters on the edge of bankruptcy, further destabilising an already hostile relationship. To the north, China continues its expansionist policies, posing a constant threat along the disputed borders. The recent military coup in Bangladesh adds to the growing list of concerns, as it joins an increasingly undemocratic and politically unstable South Asia, with Myanmar under military rule and Sri Lanka and Nepal grappling with political instabilities. This tumultuous environment amplifies the external threats faced by India, making the possibility of a three-front war a looming reality if not addressed with urgent and strategic measures. The convergence of these crises in India’s neighbourhood demands a robust and proactive approach to ensure regional stability and safeguard national security.
As India is a pivotal player in South Asia, it finds itself grappling with a unique geopolitical challenge — managing relations with three significant neighbours: Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan. This “three-front dilemma” is not just a strategic conundrum but a complex web of historical grievances, territorial disputes, and competing national interests. As India seeks to maintain its sovereignty and regional influence, it must navigate the intricate dynamics of its relationships with these nations, each presenting distinct challenges and opportunities. The term “three-front dilemma” refers to India’s simultaneous need to manage its strategic and security concerns on three fronts — Bangladesh to the east, China to the north, and Pakistan to the west. This situation has historical roots, with each neighbour posing unique threats and opportunities. The dilemma is not just about military readiness but also encompasses diplomatic, economic, and cultural dimensions that influence India’s broader geopolitical strategy.
The recent military coup in Bangladesh marks a significant shift in the political landscape of the country, with far-reaching implications for India. Historically, Bangladesh has been a key ally for India in South Asia, sharing cultural, economic, and strategic ties. However, the abrupt transition of power through a military coup threatens to destabilise this relationship. The coup may lead to increased authoritarianism, suppression of democratic voices, and potential civil unrest within Bangladesh, all of which could spill over into India, particularly in the form of increased refugee inflows and border tensions unlike during the time of PM Khaleda Zia, when border issues and tensions were more important discussions rather than bilateral agreements.
India’s dilemma is not just about military readiness but also encompasses diplomatic, economic, and cultural dimensions that influence India’s broader geopolitical strategy
Since Bangladesh’s independence in 1971, when India played a crucial role in supporting its liberation from Pakistan, the two nations have generally maintained friendly ties. However, issues such as border management, illegal immigration, and water-sharing have occasionally strained the relationship. The economic relations between India and Bangladesh have grown significantly over the past few decades. Bangladesh is one of India’s largest trading partners in South Asia, with trade volumes exceedingly approximately US$ 10 billion annually. The key areas of cooperation include infrastructure development, energy, and transportation, with India investing in connectivity projects that link the two economies more closely.
However, despite the strong economic ties, strategic concerns persist. India is particularly worried about border security, illegal immigration, and the equitable sharing of river waters, which have led to occasional diplomatic tensions. The influx of Rohingya refugees into Bangladesh and their potential migration to India adds another layer of complexity to the bilateral relationship. Also, looking at China’s growing influence in Bangladesh is a significant concern for India. Beijing’s investments in infrastructure projects, such as the development of ports and roads, and military cooperation with Dhaka, are seen as part of China’s broader strategy to encircle India. These developments have increased competition between India and China for influence in Bangladesh.
China’s ambitions in South Asia are driven by its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to enhance connectivity and trade across Asia and beyond. For India, the BRI represents both an economic challenge, and a strategic threat, as it seeks to extend Chinese influence in neighbouring countries, including Bangladesh and Pakistan. Similarly, the India-China border dispute is one of the most significant aspects of their bilateral relationship. The contested Line of Actual Control (LAC) has been a flashpoint for military confrontations, with both nations deploying troops and infrastructure in the region. The dispute remains unresolved, with periodic clashes that threaten regional stability since June 2020.
The abrupt transition of power within Bangladesh threatens to destabilise the bilateral ties with India. The civil unrest in Bangladesh may spill over into India, particularly in the form of refugee influx and border tension
The economic competition between India and China extends beyond trade imbalances. Both countries are vying for technological supremacy, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, where companies like Huawei and Jio are at the forefront. Additionally, China’s large-scale investments in South Asia, including Bangladesh and Pakistan, are seen as efforts to counter India’s regional influence.
In the case of India-Pakistan relations, the Kashmir conflict remains the core issue, having sparked several wars and numerous skirmishes between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. Despite numerous attempts at dialogue, the relationship remains fraught with tensions. Pakistan’s strategic posture is heavily influenced by its rivalry with India. The country’s military establishment, which plays a significant role in governance, views India as its primary adversary. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and its alliance with China are central to its strategy to counterbalance India’s conventional military superiority. India has repeatedly accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, particularly in the Kashmir region. In response, India has adopted a strategy of limited military action, such as surgical strikes, and diplomatic efforts to isolate Pakistan internationally. These actions underscore the ongoing security challenges India faces from its western neighbour.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a cornerstone of the Sino-Pakistani alliance and a major concern for India. The corridor, which includes infrastructure projects linking China’s Xinjiang province to Pakistan’s Gwadar port, passes through the disputed region of Gilgit-Baltistan, claimed by India. CPEC is seen by India as a strategic encroachment on its sovereignty. India’s military preparedness to handle potential conflicts on three fronts — Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan — is a critical aspect of its national security strategy. This includes modernising its armed forces, enhancing missile capabilities, and forming strategic alliances. The doctrine of “cold start” and the development of the Rafale fighter jet fleet are key elements of this preparedness.
The United States plays a crucial role in India’s strategy to manage its three-front dilemma. The growing partnership between the two is highlighted by defence agreements and cooperation within the QUAD, strengthening India’s position against China and Pakistan
The United States plays a crucial role in India’s strategy to manage its three-front dilemma. The growing Indo-US partnership, highlighted by defence agreements and cooperation within the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), strengthens India’s position against China and Pakistan. The US also supports India’s aspirations to become a leading power in the Indo-Pacific region. However, in case of Russia which has been a long-time ally of India, particularly in the defence sector, Russia’s close ties with China and its growing relationship with Pakistan have introduced new complexities in India-Russia relations. India must navigate this triangular relationship carefully to maintain its defence partnerships and strategic autonomy.
India’s diplomatic strategy involves a delicate balancing act between aligning with global powers and maintaining its strategic autonomy. This includes engagement with multilateral organisations, such as the United Nations and ASEAN, and fostering regional cooperation through initiatives like the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). Regional organisations like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) play a role in shaping India’s regional strategy. While SAARC has been largely ineffective due to India-Pakistan tensions, the SCO provides a platform for India to engage with both China and Pakistan within a broader Asian context.
India’s strategic landscape is dominated by its complex relationships with Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan. The “three-front dilemma” underscores the need for a multifaceted approach that includes military preparedness, diplomatic finesse, and economic engagement. As India continues to assert its role on the global stage, its ability to navigate these challenges will determine its future as a leading regional power. It will be interesting to see how India uncovers these growing challenges in the future.
The writer is Special Advisor for South Asia, Parley Policy Initiative, Republic of Korea. He is a regular commentator on water security and transboundary river issues in South Asia. He tweets on X, @The_China_Chap. The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
–The writer is a Special Advisor for South Asia at the Parley Policy Initiative, Republic of Korea. He regularly provides commentary on India-China border issues, water security, and transboundary river challenges in South Asia. You can follow his updates on X at @The_China_Chap. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
