Western Chaos
The famous hypnotherapist Milton Erickson once said, “Confusion always precedes Enlightenment.” The recent diplomatic circus on display post-Ukraine crisis aptly amplifies the axiom. The barrage of statements and sanctions from the US and European capitals during the first fortnight of Putin’s operations intending to target everything Russian soon led to the realisation that perhaps even after more than 100 days nothing is stopping Russia yet. The state of confusion and chaos was so intense that German spy chief Bruno Kahl was in Kiev on the day of the invasion and he was to be evacuated by road, a slow retreat towards the Polish border among thousands of refugees.
The fact was the West got caught completely on the hop this time. The primary reason was the US and Europe’s approach of mutual appreciation all these years that led them to a world of fictional superiority. Having got caught totally ill-prepared in spite of intelligence overload, they did the next best thing, they accused Putin of being completely irrational. Really hilarious that it seems as if Putin ought to ratify his special military operations from the US and NATO before starting the invasion.
The Hollow Response
The natural response to a crisis of this magnitude demanded sanity and maturity from everyone but the response was far removed from reality. Diplomatic isolation and economic sanctions on Russia were the end-all response from the West. This did cause some adverse impact on the Russian economy but proved horrifically inadequate to force Russia to change its course. This brings us to the next question did the West really want to understand the problem, their response so far does not prove so. The problem was never Putin’s dislike of Ukraine but the unabashed attempt by the US and NATO to prop up Ukraine as a puppet against Russia. Unfortunately for Ukraine, the West didn’t have a Plan B, they are still cheer-leading Ukraine with money and useless weapons without putting boots on the ground as if war should go on till the last Ukrainian standing.
Diplomatic Decency?
The ongoing war has caused another casualty, that of diplomatic decency, listening to the US and European leaders was a shame. They were heard hurling abuses at the Russian President with President Biden in lead. Disapproval is one thing but you don’t burn bridges you are supposed to travel back on. Having killed the communication channels with the Russian head of state, the West has nothing much to leverage upon than dish out more threats to Russia during daily press briefings. Hypocritical as it might be it was followed by more outrageous instances of lecturing sovereign nations, especially India and China, about how to conduct themselves.
At the point where India stands today in this severe crisis, no other world power can create a space like that for themselves. The sooner it is understood the better it will be, as the world is not going to be the same again
The western belief of ‘My-way or No-way’ was on full display when the White House press secretary was seen advising India to be on the ‘right side of history’ or when an unknown someone, probably US Deputy NSA came uninvited for a forgetful visit to suggest – Russia will not ‘come to help India’ in a conflict with China. Even ignoring for a moment that he spoke way above his pay grade, but really! at first, India never sought guidance from the West and secondly, India can safeguard its borders and interests. So much for diplomatic decency but the language smacks of utter disregard for the sovereign choices of independent nations. That’s the precise reason why the West today is completely out of sync with times and at the cost of their own paying.
The Enlightenment
Post massive destruction in Ukraine, which unfortunately still continues as we speak, and super sanctions on Russia, the West appears to have run out of ideas. The military response remains a complete NO, so what’s left is sanctions followed by more sanctions. But here’s a word of wisdom – the combined might of worst sanctions by the US and Europe could not alter a state like Iran into submission or change its path. Iran after posting negative growth of -6.78% in 2019 posted a growth of +2.76% in 2021.
Ukraine suffered not because of Putin’s dislike of Ukraine but due to the unabashed attempt by the US and NATO to prop up Ukraine as a puppet against Russia
Dramatic as it may seem but it’s true, thus experimenting it out on a country as big as Russia appears a novice play. The hope was if everyone can join against Russia then sanctions might have desired effect meaning if that’s not the case sanctions will NOT work. It’s not that Americans and Europeans are not enlightened about it but an acceptance of the same would sound very defeatist and harm their hard-earned reputation. Nonetheless, they would still give it a try and hope like hell everyone comes on board.
That explains serious desperation across the Western capitals and hectic diplomacy in New Delhi. Key foreign dignitaries who lined up in the first fortnight of the Russian invasion to present their case included the British foreign secretary, foreign ministers from China, Russia, Oman & Greece apart from Japanese Prime Minister, the US Deputy NSA and Canada’s minister of international trade just to name a few.
India is Not the Same Anymore
Whatever may have been the talking points, what was very clear though that New Delhi has shown the capacity to talk to all, it has displayed huge maturity while navigating this complex situation. It continuously maintained strong communication lines with all world capitals and is uniquely placed to facilitate a much-needed understanding between conflicting parties. It was a stout recognition of India’s fair and mature diplomacy that both parties in the conflict were giving equal respect to India’s concerns. India demonstrated its standing by executing successful evacuations, the largest in history in which more than 18,000 Indian nationals were evacuated from a war zone by almost 90 flights under Operation Ganga. Active military operations were halted by both parties to provide a safe passage to Indians, which bears a real testimony of the towering stature India has built over the years.
The Western belief of ‘My-way or No-way’ was on full display when the White House press secretary was seen advising India to be on the ‘right side of history’
Given the context, it appears extremely childish on part of self-appointed custodians of world order to pass their opinion on matters of handling international relations. It was indeed a great lesson in diplomacy, neutrality is not the same as a hands-off approach. Maintaining a steady engagement, displaying the capability to understand a context and not forgetting what history has taught requires sensibility and a spine of iron. It is reflective of a Nation, which believes in its strength and ability. What India could see many wilfully wished away, India saw the cause behind conflict as well as the unfolding of a humanitarian disaster. India didn’t pick one over the other, while it absented at all ten UNSC votes. Indian relief materials were continuously landing in Ukraine. So was the Indian approach that both the parties to conflict requested India to facilitate the peace talks, while President Zelenskyy went as far as to request India provide a security guarantee to Ukraine.
These are not trifling facts, as it is said that respect is earned. India has earned this place by staying pragmatic while addressing its core interests. History will remember the why’s and how’s of this conflict, if Russia has the onus of executing this massive military operation, the West will be called out as the most selfish among all the parties who pushed a prosperous nation to the brink. These realities will slowly sink in, and a myopic approach towards a crisis of the century will do No good. Diplomatic decency demands respect for contrarian views and having channels of communication open. Where India stands today in this severe crisis, No other world power can create a space like that for themselves. The sooner it is understood the better it will be, as the world is not going to be the same again.
–The writer has varied experience in security paradigm and is a keen follower of international geopolitics. He is also the author of popular blog site (geostrat.in) on geo-strategic affairs. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
-The writer has varied experience in the security paradigm and is a keen follower of global geopolitics. His work has been regularly featured in national publications. Visit newsanalytics.in to access more articles from the author. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
