Trump waded into a war which he could have avoided. It was after three weeks into the conflict that Trump listed his war objectives. These included “degrading or destroying Iran’s military, its defence infrastructure and its nuclear weapons programme, as well as protecting American allies in the region.” It did not include the opening of the Straits of Hormuz, which came later in a post on his Truth Social. The original aim of the war, changing the regime, is no longer a goal as the US is aware that it cannot happen.
American allies in the Middle East remain miffed with Trump as he deployed his resources to protect Israel, leaving them to defend themselves. This is not something which will be forgotten soon. They are bound to look for options other than the US for their security.
The only nation that benefited from the war has been Israel, as it managed to draw in US military power to help degrade the military capabilities of Iran. Not a single ally of the US, including members of NATO and its partners in Asia, volunteered to join in this misadventure, adding to Trump’s frustration.
American allies in the Middle East remain miffed with Trump as he deployed his resources to protect Israel, leaving them to defend themselves. They are bound to look for options other than the US for their security. The only nation that benefited from the war has been Israel, as it managed to draw in US military power to help degrade the military capabilities of Iran
In desperation, he termed NATO a ‘paper tiger’ and its members as ‘cowards’. The only comment from major NATO nations and Asian allies following Trump’s comments was that they would take ‘appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage’ through the Hormuz Straits. Japan did volunteer to employ minesweepers, but only after a ceasefire.
Three weeks, at an estimated expenditure of $12 billion, with far more hidden under different heads, loss of 13 military lives, more than 200 wounded, 16 aircraft damaged or destroyed, including its famed F35s hit by Iranian air defence, most of its interceptor missiles expended alongside the loss of 10-13 Reaper UAVs, Trump is now thinking of ending the war.
Dozens of US bases in the region have been damaged, possibly for the first time. Losses for the US run into billions of dollars. Iran continues to hit back, indicating its military power, though diminished, still can cause damage. Does this in any way signal victory for the US, nor does it display that Trump’s war aims have been achieved? Trump had no Plan B other than regime change when he went in, gloating about his success in Venezuela. He waded deeper and deeper into an avoidable conflict, determining his war aims as the battle went on.
Trump has realised that he cannot bully his allies indefinitely. At a time when he needed them most, they turned him away because he insulted them repeatedly, either by imposing sanctions or by threatening to take over Greenland by force. His intention to control Middle East oil has failed. Russia and China are paying back by providing Iran with intelligence to target US bases
Diplomatically, the war has been a mess for the US. The Middle East oil infrastructure has been damaged, reducing output for some time. Years of sanctions on Russian oil to enforce peace in Ukraine have been lifted, as has been the case with Iranian oil, solely to contain oil prices and prevent his popularity from sinking further within the US. The fact that the Pentagon is demanding an additional $200 billion from Congress for military funding implies that large amounts have been hidden under different heads and reserves, including those of interceptor missiles, which have reached alarmingly low levels.
Trump has also realised that he cannot bully his allies indefinitely. This was the time when he needed them most, but they turned him away solely because he insulted them repeatedly, either by imposing sanctions or by threatening to take over Greenland by force. His intention to control Middle East oil, thereby dominating global oil prices, has failed. Russia and China are paying back by providing Iran with intelligence enabling it to target US bases with accuracy.
Internally, Trump has failed to sell the war to Americans. His popularity rate is receding rapidly. Markets are facing a meltdown, forcing him to make announcements about possible ceasefire talks before the opening of markets. The US public is aware that Iran was never a threat to the US, as Trump subsequently claimed. He commenced the war on the bidding of Netanyahu and from the beginning had no Plan B, end state or exit strategy. Now pulling out appears difficult.
Iran’s strategy of decentralised Mosaic Defence indicated that it would continue fighting till the end. Surrender was never an option, though it was open to talks. Its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz sends the message that it would exploit every lever which it has. Targeting the infrastructure of Middle East nations can make Iran unpopular, but it is the only blackmail it possesses
Trump’s famed ‘Board of Peace,’ launched with much fanfare at Davos, created for rebuilding Gaza and ensuring peace in the region, is now dead. Contributors from the Middle East will now be expending the same funds on the reconstruction of their damaged assets. Israel will no longer be trusted. There will be hesitation to place boots on the ground. Gaza will remain at the mercy of Israel. The Gaza conflict may restart.
Iran was expecting an assault by Israel and the US and had prepared accordingly. Its strategy, based on decentralised Mosaic Defence, indicated that it would continue fighting till the end. Surrender was never an option, though it was open to talks. Its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz sends the message that it would exploit every lever which it has. It is aware that targeting the infrastructure of Middle East nations may make it unpopular, but it is the only blackmail it possesses.
Boots on the ground by the US could be worse than Vietnam and Afghanistan. With no one else displaying any intent to contribute troops, the US is alone. Israel has not announced its participation with ground troops either. Without opening the Straits of Hormuz, Trump’s claims of victory would be laughed at.
The future remains grim. Iran will, in the future, employ every trick to ensure that it obtains a nuclear weapon, which would be its ultimate assurance for survival, as with the North Korean regime. The Iranian leadership may even become far more brutal in times ahead in suppressing dissent.
Tehran may be isolated for targeting its neighbours and its military power decapacitated, but its survival alone, despite combined strikes by the US and Israel, is a signal of victory. Besides, Trump would finish his tenure in a few years, but the Supreme Leader of Iran would remain in place for possibly decades, becoming more defiant over the years
Tehran may be isolated for targeting its neighbours and its military power decapacitated, but its survival alone, despite combined strikes by the US and Israel, is a signal of victory. Finally, while Trump would finish his tenure in a few years, the Supreme Leader of Iran would remain in place for possibly decades, becoming more defiant over the years.
Trump is in a bind. He began a war without an exit strategy or an end state. His hopes of an internal uprising in Iran collapsed when the public rallied in support of the leaders killed in initial strikes, in a display of nationalism, strengthening the regime. Iran’s strategy of hitting back at similar targets of nations in the vicinity was unexpected by Trump. He had little answer for Iran’s blackmail. Neither did Trump expect that the US would be forced to battle alone.
Trump had delivered a Venezuela sans Maduro and hoped for the same in Iran. He is already warning that Cuba is next. However, while Iran has placed the brakes, Cuba is preparing for battle. It is Trump who is now seeking a way out of Iran. Aware that he has blundered, Trump has begun having illusions of victory. The world knows the reality.
The writer is a strategic analyst and a motivator. He can be reached at @kakar_harsha. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
