Innovative Edge:Â The world has chased new capabilities in warfare since the documented history of conflicts. It is the innovative edge of unexplored technologies and their imaginative employment on the battlefield that have surprised many adversaries. Whether it is gunpowder, nuclear, space, stealth and ever-evolving drones, each has added new dynamics to the combat. The advent of mobile warfare has suddenly rendered hitherto fore popular dug-down trench battles almost useless. The current 4th gen warfare hinges on decentralisation with cutting-edge technologies as the backbone for advanced militaries. It also serves as the basic fundamentals for modern-day combat. Similar is the case with emerging technologies that are mostly in the research stages at present. However, they promise to be disruptive in each of their domain when deployed. Domains such as Quantum Technology (QT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), Robotics, or the Internet of Things (IoT) all have massive potential and imaginative employment.
World is currently witnessing the unfolding of the second quantum revolution. The first one has made imaging, communication, nuclear power, semiconductors and computing familiar terms on the battlefield. While implementation of laser weapons and stealth fighting is still underway, the new domains will likely bring newer capabilities, enhanced effectiveness, higher precision and almost instant response. The future tech as they are called promises to unleash super capabilities enhancing the performances of existing systems manifold. They will push present capacities of sensing, communicating and computing much beyond their current performance limits.
In a true sense, the second revolution in QT enables even higher control over individual quantum systems. QT is a marvellous interplay between physics and engineering. The possibility to manipulate atoms, ions, electrons, photons and various molecules will open drastically new opportunities. The technique of manipulating trapped ions serves as a bedrock for quantum computing. Quantum bits or qubits form the basic unit of information in quantum computing. The unique no-cloning characteristics of these qubits suggest that quantum information cannot be copied, allowing for imaginative applications. Military utilisation would ensure an entirely ultra-secure communications backbone. Capabilities such as these make the military significance of such futuristic domains absolutely unparalleled.
Impressive Tech
Evolutionary technologies such as QT, AI, IoT, and Robotics are all very dynamic in scope and depth. QT is widely recognised as the most impressive development underway in the 21st century. It encompasses Quantum Computing – for handling newer and faster algorithms; Quantum Simulations – making larger and bigger approximations possible; Quantum Crypto analysis – enabling the breaking of toughest encryptions a reality; Quantum Machine Learning – for super high performance; Quantum Network – for ultra-secure & unbreakable communication; Quantum Clocks – which are likely to be 100 times more precise than atomic clocks; Quantum RF Antenna – transforming an antenna into a chip; Quantum Imaging – to detect even out of the line of sight objects. All these possibilities will eventually form part of Quantum Warfare and appear as a total fantasy at the moment.
Seamless connectivity will be another key aspect for exploiting real-time analytical data available through QT. The Internet of Things or IoT will form the essential backbone for such a scenario. The unprecedented growth would be fuelled largely by 5G networks which itself is rolling out at an exceptional rate. It is estimated that by 2025, IoT would have spread to 21 billion connected devices an increment of more than 440 per cent since 2016.
Military Robotics or the use of robots for military application enables reduced risk to soldiers handling dangerous tasks. Bomb disposal, surveillance in a hostile environment and autonomous drones are all robotics in operation. The US, China and Russia all have been investing heavily in advanced aerial robots capable of surveillance and rescue operations. Integrated with other cutting-edge technologies it will bring them probably much closer to being machine soldiers equipped and connected with AI & IoT.
Take the case of AI which has steadily adapted as an exciting open platform with excellent output. The US DoD released its first AI plan way back in 2019 leading to the development of various systems for military use. In a 2022 DoD paper, it was highlighted how a 1000-pound live bomb was dropped based on an AI-generated grid system, which was just one metre off from the surveyed grid. The capacity to rapidly piece together terrain dynamics and build up a reliable grid has been made a reality now. To analyse and prioritise emerging targets and managing the allocation of resources for strike missions in real time is enthralling. The massive exercise which otherwise would take hours if not days could now be created just at the required instance. The technology can handle voluminous data and has proved extremely effective in decision-making. It has the capability to self-regulate, self-control and self-activate in highly demanding combat situations with almost instantaneous response time.
Reduced Conflict Thresholds?
Historically the advent of new technologies and the emergence of conflicts have maintained their hand-in-hand relationship. The most striking event was the detonation of a little boy and a fat man in Japan. It was made possible as Americans had just developed nuclear technology by then, which altered the course of a world war. While it cannot be universalised as a theory but most of the global instants suggest it. This especially holds greater veracity if protagonists are already part of serious conflicts. What the new technology essentially does is shifts the balance of power or at least this is what the impression exists. With the psychological comfort of being a step ahead comes the desire to also prove it on the battlefield. However, it would be fair enough to say a conflict has a multitude of ingredients and one single factor can neither unleash nor prevent the same. These new technologies have been ushered mostly by advanced nations, already having other greater means of war waging with them. This factor can be a temporary reassurance but not for long. As any new technology for sure brings the competitors to develop it or its counter for themselves. This has been the unmistakable trend so far whether it is nuclear, space, hypersonic missiles, or armed drones.
The greater impact of new technologies has been mostly witnessed by secondary conflict zones. They have also traditionally served as testing grounds for new weapons systems by mega powers. Americans deployed their Pioneer drones first in the Iraq war. British brought in their Typhoon fighters to Libya for first live combat. Russians tested their swarm-drone technology first against Ukraine during the Crimea conflict in 2014. There are umpteen such examples straddled across war history. The problem begins once the technology originator chooses to advance its commercial interest simultaneously. The proliferation of such sensitive technologies and the fear of these landing in the hands of fly-by-night regimes causes great distress. No surprise that armed with such ultra-modern weapons and technologies the psychological urge to ‘now’ teach a lesson is extremely high. Making the conflict thresholds spiralling down with subsequent violent experimentation!
Uncertain Future
The emerging technologies on the horizon also bring newer challenges to employment ethics, doctrine and regulatory requirements. All of these are non-existent at present and unlikely to be in the near future. While we have already gained greater capabilities by engineering tweaks in physics and chemistry, the biological parts will likely be the next frontier to breach. Especially in the absence of developmental ethics. It will lead to the development of superhuman with ultra-refined skills equivalent to what future machines can do. It will be something of a return compliment. If machines can mimic humans; ultimately humans too would desire to ‘mimic’ machine-matching performances. Early research will be probably seen within the century or even in our lifetime. DNA mapping and gene alteration are already a reality; the resistance to not letting science manipulate human biology will be short-circuited with a greater concern of not going into a stage where the threat of ‘machine takeover’ start appearing as a reality.
The pace is steady and the direction is unpredictable. How emerging technologies will ultimately push human evolution remains vague. Immense power in very few hands is not something new in our world. But the difference now could be about genome arming a human body itself. How the biological engineering, which soon appears inevitable, will get guided or controlled? Who will be responsible in the absence of any regulation if it doesn’t work on the expected lines? World has horrifically witnessed one such experiment with the Wuhan virus and continues to pay a very heavy price collectively. But it is conspicuous in its ability for fixing the responsibility to date. There is a very little realisation of such an eventuality. Machines can absorb multiple corrections to algorithms as they improve themselves, will it be the same for humans? The answer probably lies in closer scrutiny of how machines, as we know them today, ‘behave and conduct’ themselves. The capacity to firewall, self-diagnose and troubleshoot all indicates an inescapable safety net. While machines continue to learn from humans with killing impact, it leaves a lesson for humans – that it is time to learn back from machines!
-The writer has varied experience in security paradigm and is a keen follower of international geopolitics. His work has been regularly featured in national publications and newspapers. He is also the author of popular blog site newsanalytics.co.in on geo-strategic affairs. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
-The writer has varied experience in the security paradigm and is a keen follower of global geopolitics. His work has been regularly featured in national publications. Visit newsanalytics.in to access more articles from the author. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
