Post 9/11, the United States remained involved in a 20-year war with Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. But in 2021, the US decided to pull out of Afghanistan in a most humiliating manner, during the Presidency of Joe Biden. The US Army abandoned Afghanistan’s Bagram Air Base on August 15, 2021, leaving behind weapons and equipment worth $7 billion.
Bagram Air Base is located 11 km southeast of Charikar in the Parwan Province. It is some 40-45 km north of Kabul. Sitting on the site of the ancient town of Bagram at an elevation of 1,492 metres (4,895 ft) above sea level, the air base has two concrete runways. The main one measures 3,602 metres by 46 metres (11,819 ft × 151 ft), capable of handling large military aircraft. The second runway measures 2,953 metres by 26 metres (9,687 ft × 85 ft). The air base also has at least three large hangars, a control tower, numerous support buildings, and various housing areas. There are also more than 13 hectares (32 acres) of ramp space and five aircraft dispersal areas, with over 110 revetments.
Bagram airfield was built by the Soviet Union in the 1950s. Bagram Air Base was formerly the largest US military base in Afghanistan. It was staffed by the 455th Air Expeditionary Wing of the US Air Force, along with rotating units of the US and coalition forces. It was expanded and modernised by the Americans. There is also a hospital with 50 beds, three operating theatres and a modern dental clinic. Kabul International Airport is located approximately 40 km south of Bagram, connected by two separate roads.
President Donald Trump said a few weeks ago that he wanted Bagram Air Base back into the possession of US troops. His special representative, Zalmay Khalilzad, visited Afghanistan on September 13, 2025, and held talks with the Afghan government. But Afghanistan refused to give the air base to the US. Then, a threat by the US President to use ‘other means’ to snatch it from the Afghan government.
According to him, this air base was strategically important for the United States to keep a watch over China’s nuclear silos in Xinjiang province and Lop Nor. These locations are just an hour’s flight from this air base. It also allows the United States to keep vigil over Iran. What’s more, it provides the US an access to five Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan, which were earlier part of the erstwhile Soviet Union.
Bagram Air Base is strategically important for the United States to keep a watch over China’s nuclear silos in Xinjiang province and Lop Nor. It also allows the US to keep vigil over Iran. It also provides the US an access to the Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan
Some analysts think that the current Afghan-Pakistan military conflict is part of that ‘other means threat’ of the US President. More particularly, Pakistan’s air strikes on Kabul, on October 9, 2025, were seen as a means to browbeat the Afghan Taliban by Pakistan Army Chief, General Asim Munir at the behest of POTUS. This was also to expose a void in Afghanistan’s air defence. Of course, it did rattle the Afghan Taliban, though it took revenge by carrying out land operations against Pakistan on the Durand Line. But it compelled the Afghan government to eke out an immediate counter to the Pakistani threat from the air.
Social media is now abuzz with reports these days that Bagram Air Base has come under the occupation of India after Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited India from October 9 to 15, 2025. However, there is no official confirmation from either India or Afghanistan. The speculation is based on some satellite imagery, which shows Indian signatures. Some Pakistani YouTubers confirm Indian presence at Bagram Air Base. Rumours are also floating that the US had sent two fighter jets, but they were politely warned to back off by the Indian air defence system. But there is no official information from India or the US.
Due to the non-confirmation of India taking charge of Bagram Air Base, by both nations openly, there are some sceptics who discount this. However, this ‘strategic ambiguity of silence’ might be a guarded approach to buy time for proper bedding in. In international diplomacy, ‘strategic silence’ pays more dividends than noisy drumbeating. Therefore, its outright rejection by some analysts was a non-recognition of logical and realistic considerations of its airspace vulnerability by the Taliban government, which was worried about this strategic weakness. It even lacks the technical know-how to operate equipment left behind by the US. It needs a reliable partner to help it overcome these two needs. It is also now known that the Taliban does not trust the US and Pakistan, nor is it going to be soft towards China, despite Amir Khan Muttaqi’s visit to China some time back.
In view of the above, the Taliban does know two things clearly:
First, Bagram Air Base is a tempting geo-strategic location for global powers. It is located at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia and West Asia, which has become the hub of emerging geopolitics and geo-economics. It is the centre point of the emerging ‘global crescent of crisis’. But the Afghan Taliban does not have the wherewithal to protect and defend against forced occupation by outsiders. Donald Trump’s threat of forcible occupation worried the Taliban. Pakistan’s air strikes exposed this vulnerability.
Second, the Afghan Taliban does not have a proper air defence system to protect the country from air strikes, particularly from Pakistan, with whom it has a running territorial feud over the Durand Line. Further, deliberate air strikes by Pakistan on October 9, 2025, and a fortnight earlier had exposed chinks in its air defence. In fact, Pakistan has been blatant about its air domination over Afghanistan’s airspace. Its last air strike was on October 9, when the Afghan Foreign Minister had embarked on a visit to India.
Therefore, realising its strategic weakness in airspace defence, the Afghan Taliban government needed a credible but reliable partner who could help it safeguard Afghan airspace. India, with its record of selfless developmental programmes in Afghanistan and its recent demonstration of air defence capabilities, during Op Sindoor, became the obvious choice. India’s previous record of welfare programmes, such as the construction of the Afghan Parliament House and road infrastructure, had won accolades from the public. This became its undaunted surety to the Afghan Taliban. Besides, from time to time, over the last three to four years, since coming to power of Afghan Taliban 2.0, India has been sending humanitarian aid, including food grain and medicines, via the Chabahar port of Iran, which speaks volumes of Indian sincerity.
Afghanistan does not have a proper air defence system to protect the country from air strikes, particularly from Pakistan. Therefore, it needs a reliable partner who could help safeguard its airspace. It has opted for India as its strategic partner. India can help Afghanistan in creating an Air Force by training its manpower
To understand the Afghan Taliban’s reason to offer Bagram Air Base to India, it is pertinent to first understand Afghan Taliban 2.0. It is no longer Mulla Omar’s bunch of religious bigots but people who are well-versed in geo-strategic environs. They have learnt a lesson from the weakness of Taliban 1.0, when it was blasted from the air by the US. It understands that guerrilla fighting or land-based operations for sovereignty are not sufficient to defeat an enemy. As a nation, it has to defend itself rather than fighting intruders. Besides, the country cannot be run on religious lines. Religion can be a guiding force, but it is more important to carry the public along. Therefore, it was also more important to win over public opinion by welfare, safety and security of its people. Religious rigidity was not the only way to govern a nation.
What’s more, this time, the Afghan Taliban does not trust Pakistan. It realises that Pakistan was using Afghanistan for its own dirty games with India. In fact, some Pakistani leaders had boasted, post August 15, 2021, that the Afghan Taliban would help Pakistan capture Kashmir from India. Thus, who would know better about the double game of Pakistan than the Afghan Taliban? Besides, it knows that Pakistan wants to use it as its fifth province and a means to achieve strategic depth against India, particularly its rugged mountains as natural defence in a nuclear exchange.
In any case, Afghanistan has a long-standing dispute over the Durand Line, drawn in 1893, which it questions as a border with Pakistan. Afghanistan claims the entire province of KPK (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), which the Durand Line divided into Afghanistan and British India. Allying with Pakistan would mean forgoing this claim over KPK, which the Afghan Taliban is in no mood to do. Any compromise on this will make the Afghan Taliban lose popularity even among its own cadres.
Following the principle of “Enemy’s Enemy is a Friend”, thus, the Taliban has chosen to offer Bagram to India, as China chose Pakistan to fix India. It offers the following advantages:
- It would keep the Pakistan Air Force at bay. It is going to be a ‘Strategic Deterrent’. It won’t dare to carry out strikes with old impunity.
- Afghanistan Taliban would be trained in an air defence system. Maybe India will reactivate the old US air defence system or install its own Akash air defence system.
- India can help it create the Afghanistan Air Force by training its manpower. Old Afghanistan Air Force cadres can be re-employed.
- India can vigorously carry out developmental exercises, such as the construction of hydro-power dams, hospitals, schools and interstate roads, etc. Some even say of an Afghan railway project.
- Though not happy but the US would reconcile that it was under India and not China. After all, India is a member of QUAD (Australia, Japan, India and the US).
- With improved relations with India, the Afghanistan government can hope to seek international recognition. This would open up routes for trade and commerce and thus boost the economy.
It seems that India’s takeover of Bagram Air Base is not a sudden development, but it has been secretly carried out for some time. India has deployed technical manpower and Assam Rifles boots on the ground. As learnt, India has reactivated air defence parameters
It seems that India’s takeover of Bagram Air Base is not a sudden development, but it has been secretly carried out for some time. India has deployed technical manpower and Assam Rifles boots on the ground. As learnt, it has reactivated air defence parameters. As stated earlier that social media rumours hint that two US fighter jets were challenged when they approached the airbase.
This move by the Afghan Taliban seems to be a win-win situation for everyone but Pakistan, which has its own sinister designs. Even in theory, such an arrangement benefits everyone but Pakistan. As brought out earlier, Afghanistan would secure recognition, aid and growth without surrendering autonomy. The world must realise that each nation has its democratic rights to run a nation according to its cultural and social parameters. Once it gets into the global framework, it will carry out the requisite changes. Allow it to exist first.
In so doing, India would emerge as one of the major powers of the globe. It would be a clarion call to the United Nations to accord India its legitimate Permanent berth in the UNSC. It won’t be a surprise if the US silently feels happy about it. It would allow the US to retain an indirect watch through India over China and Iran without redeployment.
What’s more, Russia, Iran, and China can shed fears of destabilisation if the US had retaken it. Indian occupation provides them stability without Western intrusion. Only Pakistan, trapped in its obsession with Kashmir and enmity with India, loses its leverage — politically, economically, and psychologically. Perhaps, it may force the Pakistani public to free itself from the selfish games of its army and the Generals.
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
