Iranian President Masoud Pezekhshian’s address at the UN General Assembly was interesting. The most significant aspect of his speech was probably the call for renewing, via diplomatic negotiations, the nuclear accord that was aimed at cooling tensions in the Middle East on the one hand, and loosening the stranglehold of stringent sanctions imposed by the West ever since the controversial nuclear programme of the Iranian regime began in the early 1990s.
Iran, one of the most important players in the Middle East, is finding it extremely difficult to mould the current geopolitical situation on its terms. At a time when the world is scrambling to find ways to defuse the Israel-Hamas war, which will soon enter its first anniversary, Iran finds itself in a sticky situation. Iran is not only being isolated due to its covert proxy cum asymmetric warfare against Israel and the US, it is also being blamed for encouraging the Houthi rebels to disrupt international maritime trade, making Iran susceptible to more punitive sanctions.
In this context, it is necessary to decode the nature of Iran’s compromising attitude in seeking negotiations.
At a time when the world is scrambling to defuse the Israel-Hamas war, Iran finds itself in a sticky situation. It has been isolated and blamed for encouraging the Houthi rebels to disrupt international maritime trade, making it susceptible to more punitive sanctions.
Nuclear Deal
The Iranian Nuclear Accord, known as the JCPOA or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, was an agreement signed between Iran and P5+1 i.e., five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany. Negotiations that began in the early 2000s had their share of ups and downs, but the actors and stakeholders ensured that deal is signed. The agreement was concluded in 2015.
As per the deal, Iran would, in accordance with international commitments, reduce the work on its nuclear programme aimed at developing a nuclear bomb in exchange for the West relaxing the sanctions.
The deal marked a watershed moment in Middle Eastern affairs if seen from the perspective of peace and stability, not only did the region breathed an ephemeral sigh of relief, but also were assured of long-term peace and prosperity to return in perhaps the world’s most tumultuous region.
But just as the world was looking forward to a semblance of peace in the turbulent region, enter Donald Trump. The boisterous US businessman, real-estate mogul in an egregious turn of events won the presidency of the United States of America in the 2016; one of the principle aims of the US administration under Trump was to isolate Iran as much as possible using the ‘maximum pressure’ approach.
The result – the US announced that it was exiting the accord and re-imposing sanctions on Iran. It also began to pressurise other countries, including India, to stop buying oil from Iran or risk facing the wrath of US sanctions. Despite vehement protestations by other stakeholders in the deal, the US went through with its sanctions policy and the deal unravelled.
What followed was Iran reneging on UN commitments to stop its nuclear programme. Iran declared that it would increase its uranium enrichment to 90 per cent – enough to develop a nuclear bomb.
The Iranian Nuclear Accord was signed between Iran and P5+1 i.e., five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany. The talks began in the early 2000s and the agreement was concluded in 2015.
What Prompted Iran?
The clerical regime in Iran is becoming deeply unpopular and hated day by day. With the anti-regime protests in the aftermath of Mahsa Amini’s death in 2022 rocking the regime to its core, the regime retaliated with disproportionate force, killing and incarcerating scores of innocent yet brave citizens. The starkest example is Nargis Mohammedi, a noble laureate.
In the history of ideas, it is known that the more a regime resorts to brutality and use of terror as a weapon to browbeat the masses into obedience, the more pushback and resistance it faces. Iran is desperate to ensure external stability to deal with its internal problems more efficiently.
The external front is also not very encouraging, Iran is currently locked in an asymmetric proxy war with Israel using its acolytes Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis. Despite using its full strength to force Israel into negotiations to end the nearly year-long war with Hamas, Iran hasn’t been successful. To complicate matters further, Shia Iran’s relations with Sunni Arab Gulf Kingdoms, most importantly Saudi Arabia, continue to be tense.
The Iranian economy is faltering, living conditions are deteriorating, domestic approval for the regime’s policies is declining and the regime is finding it difficult to maintain a modicum of legitimacy among the masses.
To complicate matters further, the Iranian economy is faltering, living conditions are deteriorating, domestic approval for the regime’s policies, despite the election of a reformist and pragmatist voice, is declining and the regime is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain at least a modicum of legitimacy among the masses.
With the US election approaching, Iran has extended the olive branch, albeit a puny one to the West, in the coming months it will be interesting to see how things turn out.
–The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
