As 2024 progresses, global peace prospects remain dire, with conflicts multiplying and intensifying due to diverse causes and growing involvement from both domestic and international actors. The world is experiencing an unprecedented number of conflicts, which appear increasingly intractable due to the growing involvement of both domestic and external actors, a complex array of underlying drivers, and escalating geopolitical tensions. 2024 will be remembered as a year in which conflicts escalated, brewed and spread around the world.
There are presently over 56 ongoing conflicts, with 92 countries currently involved in conflicts beyond their borders, the most since World War II, as per Global Peace Index 2024, a study by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). Fatalities from violent events rose 37% year-on-year during the reporting period (1 July 2023 – 30 June 2024) of The Armed Conflict Survey 2024, reaching nearly 200,000 globally. 2023 recorded 162,000 conflict-related deaths. This was the second-highest toll in the past 30 years with the economic impact of violence at $19.1 trillion. The Year 2024 now closing will certainly cross this sad statistical tragedy.
Conflicts in Gaza, Sudan, and Ukraine are tragic realities of geopolitical fragmentation and great power rivalries resulting in devastating human costs of armed violence. In Ukraine, the ongoing war between the US-led West and Russia, the reconstruction costs are now estimated at $486 billion over the next decade. First, a war is created for the weapons industry and then for the benefit of reconstruction contractors. Increasingly war is becoming a business with political nexus, where there is no concern or space for humanity. These dynamics and systemic failures in mediation, and ineffective international law enforcement underscore the urgent need for innovative strategies to address conflict and its underlying causes.
The Worldview of World War
The world is certainly at a critical crossroads where such diverged conflicts, power struggles, and technological advancements may already signal the opening phases of an unprecedented WW 3 albeit defined as a ‘World at War’. Key developments like ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Syria on the brink of civil war, regime change by proxies, and the Gaza conflict, the implications of Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, escalating US-China tensions, and a rise in cyber threats will spill over to 2025.
Ironically, the world still views the World War as one synchronised canvas indicative of a direct, all-out conflict between major state actors, intense military engagements and massive human casualties. This is a legacy past and no longer a reality. Today we see new actors, new tools, new strategies, new domains and …
The World War may now be the ‘World at War’ already underway, but not in the traditional form imagined. Instead, we may witness a series of geographically dispersed and chronologically unsynchronised conflicts, eventually converging to form identifiable clusters of a broader, more complex global war.
Evolution of Modern Warfare: New Challenges for a Fragmented Conflict Landscape
Before delving into contemporary conflicts, it is essential to recognise the evolving nature of warfare itself. Historically, world wars were defined by their scope, involving multiple nations in direct military engagements across different theatres of operation. The First and Second World War model was characterised by formal alliances, state actors, and total warfare where entire nations and societies were mobilised for war efforts. However, the 21st century has witnessed a transformation in how wars are waged, the actors and proxies, and the tools and rationale of wars. The rise of multi-domain asymmetric warfare, cyberattacks, non-contact hybrid warfare economic sanctions, and proxy conflicts becoming primary methods of engagement have transformed the battlespace arena.
War has become a business today, initially for the weapon industry and then for the reconstruction contractors, regardless of humanity. Systemic failures in mediation efforts and ineffective international law enforcement agencies underscore the urgent need for innovative strategies to address conflict and its underlying causes
Unlike the legacy World Wars, the modern global landscape is shaped by the non-state actors, proxy players, and disruptive technological platforms that allow conflicts to be fought on multiple fronts, with increased deniability and lesser visibility. Cyberwarfare, economic coercion, information manipulation, and even pandemics have become tools for nations to achieve geopolitical objectives without the need for conventional military application. These 21st-century developments challenge the traditional definition of a world war and necessitate a reconsideration of what ‘global conflict’ as a world in conflict.
Clusters of Global Conflict: Worldwide Conflagration
The world all over is embroiled in intense geopolitical struggles, serving as clusters of broader conflicts with the potential to develop into a worldwide conflagration. Although not synchronised in time or place, these conflicts illustrate an emerging pattern of ideological, economic, and political divides among major powers. However, their cumulative impact is as disastrous as the legacy world wars.
Russia and Ukraine: The European Flashpoint: One of the most hot spots of recent years is the war between Russia and Ukraine (albeit the US), which erupted in February 2022. The conflict has not only devastated Ukraine (albeit a pawn in the game) but has also weaponised Europe and the broader Western alliance, leading to a new era of proxy confrontations with Russia. The war remains intense, with escalations and nuclear brinkmanship. The question remains: can this conflict be contained, or is the world on the brink of a greater catastrophe?
China’s Rise and the Indo-Pacific Dynamics: China’s belligerence and offensive posturing are increasingly threatening global peace. From aggressive territorial claims in the South China Sea to heightened tensions over Taiwan, China’s goals have sparked fears of conflict scenarios with the United States and other players in the Indo-Pacific. The Himalayan belligerence of China though put temporarily under the carpet, has its pendulum sways. Will disengagement and de-escalation lead to de-induction and border resolution remains a big question mark.
The US-China power play is not restrained to military posturing; it additionally extends to currency power play, trade tariff, technology competition, and cyber battle. QUAD, AUKUS and the emergence of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea as an anti-West block is a reminiscence of the Allies versus Axis powers of the World War II generation.
Middle East Proxy Wars and Regional Power Struggles: The Middle East continues to function as a proxy battleground for rival powers for competing ideologies, nearby dominance, and power, amplifying the hazard of further escalation. The Israel-Palestine conflict has intensified dramatically with the latest escalations related to Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, underscoring the ideological and political divides that permeate the Middle East. Iran’s approach of bolstering non-state actors to extend its influence and counterbalance Israel, the US and Saudi Arabia aids Russia’s convergence. In Syria, the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad ends an authoritarian regime leaves a power vacuum that would empower radical groups and cause every other civil war or an Islamist regime. Meanwhile, Syrian territory remains under the occupation of the US, Turkey and Israel.
Unlike the legacy World Wars, the modern war is fought by non-state actors, proxy players, and disruptive technological platforms on multiple fronts. Cyberwarfare, economic coercion, information manipulation, and even pandemics have become tools for achieving geopolitical objectives without conventional military application
The Legacy of International Mechanisms
The evolution of the United Nations (UN) as a follow-up of World War II aimed to prevent future conflicts and promote peace, and stability based on global consensus. However, while the global dynamics evolved and disruptions set in the geopolitics, the UN remains bogged in its legacy framework. The frigidity of the UN in response to resolving the conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Gaza and Ukraine has reignited debate about its relevance. The concentration of veto power within the Security Council’s five permanent members has led to bias, unilateralism, exceptionalism and pursuance of selfish personal interests. We have seen these big power conflicts initiation, proxy play, belligerence and weaponising all elements of national power, thereby making the world a more dangerous stage.
Economic bodies, like the World Trade Organisation (WTO), also remain biased and ineffective in today’s polarised environment. Such legacy global organisations have failed to manage these conflicts, exposing gaps in global governance and escalating the risk of economic competition escalating into conflict.
Quest for Resource Control and Economic Rivalry
All elements of national power today have been weaponised, highlighting the role of resource control in modern power struggles. Economic strength has become a key tool in global influence with major powers competing for dominance in infrastructure investment, technology, and energy. China’s Belt and Road Initiative, US dollar power play, China’s technology leverage and Russia’s energy as a political tool are modern weapons. This resource-based competition could fuel new conflicts, especially as technology and energy transitions raise demand for specific resources.
Disruptive Technologies as a Modern Warfare Tool
Technology has become a central theatre for modern competition. Cyber warfare, artificial intelligence, and surveillance systems have enabled countries to engage in covert conflict, undermining economies, disrupting political processes, and eroding social stability. The recent incident in Lebanon underscores this shift when thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies linked to Hezbollah cadres exploded in a coordinated attack, killing over 40 and injuring thousands.
On the technology front, the US-China rivalry is expected to deepen, particularly in non-contact warfare. Cyberattacks will become more frequent, driving investment in resilient systems. Generative AI, IoT security, and data protection will be focal points for governments and industries.
India must balance its relationships with the US, China, and Russia. Chinese footprints in the neglected neighbourhood, the spread of radical Islamist forces, the Indo-Pacific tension, border skirmishes with China, the conflict with Pakistan in Kashmir, and the new frontline with Islamist Bangladesh are constant reminders of India’s regional security risks.
The Challenges and Threats to India’s National Interests
Viksit Bharat as an emerging player in the global arena, faces increasing external and internal challenges in a fragmented geopolitical landscape. India must balance its relationships with the US, China, and Russia, and exercise astute diplomacy, multilateralism, and strategic autonomy. Ironically the neglected neighbourhood had led to Chinese footprints and the spread of radical Islamist forces. India needs to review its strategy here. The Indo-Pacific tensions, border skirmishes with China, and the enduring conflict in Kashmir with Pakistan, the new frontline with Islamist Bangladesh are constant reminders of India’s regional security risks. The most discerning will be the internal challenges both externally and internally abetted. Canada and such Western puppets will continue to cause disruptions.
To secure its position, India must modernise its military capabilities and prioritise technological advancements. A combination of hard power (military strength and economic), soft power (diplomatic and cultural influence), and smart power (a blend of hard and soft strategies) is essential for India to safeguard its interests and secure its influence. Multilateralism and multi-engagement diplomacy must be balanced by enhancing military, economic, and technological power to navigate the global power shifts and protect its Viksit Bharat aspirations. Yet finally the power must lie within. No nation can be dependent on others for its national interest or national security. Nor can diplomacy alone ensure peace – Hard Power counts and remains a deterrent.
Conclusion
The global landscape today is marked by fragmented alliances, multiple hostilities, and a weakened system of international governance. As each country manoeuvres to assert influence, unresolved tensions, coupled with the limitations of diplomacy, may soon transform these regional conflicts into a prolonged and pervasive global struggle, a new kind of world war fought in phases and on multiple fronts. India must relook at its security canvas and national security calculus to be prepared for future challenges.
The author, a PVSM, AVSM, VSM has had an illustrious career spanning nearly four decades. A distinguished Armoured Corps officer, he has served in various prestigious staff and command appointments including Commander Independent Armoured Brigade, ADG PP, GOC Armoured Division and GOC Strike 1. The officer retired as DG Mechanised Forces in December 2017 during which he was the architect to initiate process for reintroduction of Light Tank and Chairman on the study on C5ISR for Indian Army. Subsequently he was Consultant MoD/OFB from 2018 to 2020. He is also a reputed defence analyst, a motivational speaker and prolific writer on matters of military, defence technology and national security. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily carry the views of Raksha Anirveda
