“You can choose friends, not neighbours,” said former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. This quote is proving to be quite apt at this time. There has not been any time in the history of the subcontinent when India’s neighbours were so hostile. The present situation projects a picture in which nothing is going well for India’s neighbourhood diplomacy.
India prides itself in prioritising the security and prosperity of its neighbourhood, especially championing the cause of its former constituent parts which now are sovereign countries. However, India finds itself increasingly isolated. It appears that India is surrounded by foes looking for every possible opportunity to exploit its weakness and strike India at the opportune moment.
India’s neighbourhood has, in the recent past, never seen so vulnerable.
India finds itself increasingly isolated, surrounded by foes looking for every possible opportunity to exploit its weakness and strike India at the opportune moment
Whither Neighbourhood First
In its economic and political history, India has always come to the aid of its neighbours. In fact, the Modi government emphasised the development of the neighbourhood as a cornerstone of its foreign policy lexicon. Its manifestation was the Neighborhood First policy. This initiative, launched in 2014, aimed at consolidating the Indian influence among the neighbouring countries with the aim of shared prosperity and development which would be inclusive.
Not only was it aimed at promoting sustainable development, but was aimed, broadly, at strengthening civilisational ties that India has enjoyed since ancient times when India was a subcontinent in the true sense of the term.
But the exit of the Sheikh Hasina government in Bangladesh is perhaps the final nail in the coffin for India’s Neighbourhood First policy. A pro-China government in the Maldives, an ever-hostile Pakistan, and a pro-China communist government in Nepal are ominous signs that despite its heft, India is no longer able to command its position as the regional hegemon.
The exit of the Sheikh Hasina government in Bangladesh is perhaps the final nail in the coffin for India’s Neighbourhood First policy
Tougher Security Challenges
What began as a student movement in Bangladesh against the quota system drastically mutated into an Islamist movement, hijacked by cadres of the Jamat-e-Islami’s Islamic Chhatra Parishad (Islamic Students Organisation) and BNP or Bangladesh National Party.
While this may seem to be an internal issue of Bangladesh, it isn’t. In fact, the Islamist takeover of the students’ movement in Bangladesh has emerged as a potent security challenge for New Delhi. No sooner had the incumbent government of Shiekh Hasina collapsed than the Bangladeshi army announced the release of BNP chief Khaleda Zia. This cannot be a mere coincidence.
While it may seem like an internal issue of Bangladesh, it isn’t. The Islamist takeover of the students’ movement in Bangladesh has emerged as a potent security challenge for New Delhi
The BNP, known for its historical anti-India and pro-Pakistan stance will definitely play a crucial role in the new interim government announced recently. Having said that, the regime change in Bangladesh points to a conundrum for India – a string-of-pearls situation that is distinctly continental.
With the Taliban movement in Afghanistan, the Islamist government in Pakistan and now the Islamist takeover of Bangladesh, India is facing the possibility of a potential three-and-a-half-front war. China which is, perhaps, one of the architects of this chaos, poses an existential threat to India along its northern and north-eastern borders. With the western and eastern borders becoming warmer, India finds herself in an increasingly tricky situation – how to deal with four hostile neighbours?
With social media becoming a potent tool to mobilise protestors as was seen in the disinformation campaign of the Jamat-e-Islami party against the Hasina government, it is becoming increasingly clear for New Delhi that war is no longer fought just on the borders, now it is fought in the realm of cyberspace.
Hence, regulation of the social media space in India will become an additional security challenge for security and law enforcement agencies in India.
India is facing a difficult challenge in the future because of so many hostile neighbours and the dragon breathing down its neck
The China Challenge
The realist school of international relations asserts that politics is all about power. States are concerned with their own self-preservation which leads them to adopt increasingly Machiavellian measures to enhance their survivability in a Darwinian world. It seems to be the case for India as well. China, the Asian behemoth, which is India’s northern neighbour, has been at loggerheads with India since the Galwan clash of 2020.
As per the famed String of Pearls strategy, China wants to encircle India with pro-China countries, so that New Delhi is forced to do the Chinese bidding. This has become all the more pronounced with intel reports emanating from Bangladesh that the Chinese and Pakistani deep states conniving together to foment trouble in Bangladesh. This clearly is a testimony to the potent challenge China poses to India, not only externally but also internally.
India appears to be facing a difficult challenge in the future because of so many hostile neighbours and the dragon breathing down its neck. India will find it tough to manage such a complex situation regarding security. But it is absolutely essential to remain positive.
–The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
–The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
