Not Just Another Country
China has a land mass of approximately 5200 km from east to west and 5500 km from north to south. It shares its land border with 14 countries, which is next only to Russia. Apart from this, it also faces two countries – South Korea and Japan – across the Yellow Sea in the east. There are a number of other lucrative figures associated with China such as its size, population, natural resources, mountain ranges and coastline but leave that for academicians. The real heft of China comes from its rich history, culture and its 4000-year-old civilisation. Recorded history tells us it was ruled by several dynasties from Xia, Qin, and Han to Qing in the early 20th century. During these dynasties, China underwent break-ups and reconsolidation a number of times. In spite of multiple external influences, China largely remained an introverted and homogeneous society.
The Republic of China emerged in 1912 culminating in centuries of dynastic rules, however, the period proved extremely volatile. Then came the crush, with the second Sino-Japanese war in 1937. The present Japan 2.0 is diametrically opposite of its own vintage self. Vintage Japan deeply rumpled China during its occupation with complete loot and barbarism. The Chinese finally overthrew them from the mainland (less island of Taiwan) in 1949 and with that emerged the People’s Republic of China on the mainland while present-day Taiwan remained as the Republic of China.
The People’s Republic of China, a complete communist setup organised the nation together to fight back against imperialism and as an answer to Capitalist invaders. It was the communist party, which drew lessons from the past and embraced reforms in the late 1980s. It was one of the latest entrants to WTO in 2001 and the rest is history. So there’s some serious legacy behind present-day China, its communist setup, unitary polity and confrontation with Taiwan.
Smitten by China’s Rise
China credits itself for inventing paper, printing, gun powder and the compass. It undertook concerted reforms in 1978 under its only woman chairperson Song Qingling, and many conventional pearls of wisdom were shown the door. It was flabbergasting for a poor nation where millions were going hungry, aspiring to modernise itself. No one really gave a chance of success to this communist nation, which as such was anathema to Capitalist West. China simply bet on itself and its one-in-a-million gamble paid off. The oppressive policies, restrictive freedom, and strangulating human rights, which China adopted while attempting to gain glory, were a sure recipe for disaster. It could have simply backfired, broken up the country, could have caused a civil war, and might have shown the end of the roads to the very same leaders who were pushing this agenda.
In simple words, China could have imploded from within. It was so risky that the world knew it was not worth emulating. China is an all-by itself rags-to-riches story. It betted a complete collapse to gain one-shot for achieving astounding success. It harvested ambitions beyond means. That is China for you, they simply say we have toiled for where we are, so shut up and mind yourself. It largely explains why the People’s Republic of China behave the way they do. As the reforms gained momentum, the development started showing up. Let us understand human psychology, rich or poor everyone wants to succeed in life. That is what the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sold its people, the dream of a better future. But what was remarkable was the success that CCP achieved in doing so. Couple it with its P5 and Nuclear Power status, it will reflect almost surreal achievements.
A Problem Child
China’s rise has been as much a fairytale as it has been unorthodox. It defied conventions and wisdom, focussed on the targets while sacrificing upon issues that rest of the humanity considers sacred. It achieved a mechanical success devoid of heart and soul. Nascent China continued to grow and on growing became a problem child for the world. The leadership of the People’s Republic of China from Chairman Mao to President Xi Jinping, all had one common constant and that was ‘success above all’. China sustained its best behaviour when it was still developing, and when it needed the rest of the world for wealth, technology and military might. The posture was for others, within CCP they wanted an un-distracted mission – focus, while they still remained behind their goals.
The aim was not to get into confrontation till they were strong enough to do so and that time was not far either. As China rose to become the world’s prominent economy and military power, it changed tracks completely by design. The Chinese were now devising newer ways to hedge their newfound wealth and gain world influence. It shed complete inhibitions and a cloak of morality while dealing with countries. Indeed, China literally meant business for them – everything was fair for achieving its goals, and decency is dammed!
The Strategy
China adopted an incredible three-pronged strategy, fully endorsed by its central committee and ‘God of all things’ – President Xi Jinping. The first was for minor countries out of its military influence – overinvest with liberal capital. The second was for countries that were within its sphere of military influence – exploit them with overwhelming threat of military might. And thirdly, for countries that had the capacity to question, just unleash wolf warrior diplomacy. Wherein, Chinese diplomats were given a free pass to almost abuse the host government policies in the language they want.
The aim was to deliberately rake up a confrontation and then show them a place by restrictive trade measures in the garb of “Actions Taken Under National Interest” a colloquial term used for getting WTO’s waivers from punitive actions for departing from trade agreements. The splurging on huge capital was identified as the biggest catalyst to Chinese Dreams. So here was China – investing, bribing and even threatening whatever could work to gain a foothold and then complete influence across the globe in a La Imperial avatar.
China devised an East India Company equivalent for itself in the form of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In the cover of infrastructure development, it made investments in countries that simply could not afford to return. The trap was extremely well disguised and deals were further sweetened up for mostly the corrupt leaders in power for these Banana Republics. For these nations, China become an immortal demi-God that would bring prosperity to their country as a Christmas gift from Santa Clause. The reality was very different though when Chinese packages unfolded nothing was a grant, it was a loan on a returnable basis whose interest was much higher, there were hidden clauses of non-disclosure, and a default of payment would automatically attract the pledged asset being put under Chinese control. And default they had to, they never had the means for servicing Chinese loans. But then it was a trap, it has to be camouflaged for people to willingly step over and get tripped.
Countries after the country defaulted, the situation of Pakistan and Sri Lanka have come to a state where they never have been in the worst of their times. No surprises for guessing the common thread – it’s the undesired Chinese Investments. China nurtures its prey the way it wants and it will drive out the last pound of their flesh come what may. It seems like a blood-craving vulture and vampire. The countries within China’s military influence, barring a few exceptions, have been threatened, violated and put under notice for disputed borders, maritime claims and even control of island assets. China pulled out all stops to pick a conflict with just about everyone and all at the same time. It’s no delusion, though completely unbelievable but, that is how China has evolved creating huge turbulence all across.
Deep Anxiety
The disruptive rise of China created deep anxiety about the general norms of international conduct. China would just not follow the rules, even at the height of the cold war or post demise of the Soviet Union none of the world powers behaved so abrasively and brazened it out without even an attempt to cover their intentions. This was a completely new ball game world was just not prepared for. There was never any intention to obstruct China’s rise, the entire world has enough space to grow. Nations felt they will have time to groom China on how to behave while seated at the high table. Norms of international conduct are well-practiced, tried and tested. The conduct of nations is dictated by the ‘depth of mutual respect and their place in world order’. The world knew how to deal with a rash Hugo Chavez or a sophisticated Margaret Thatcher. But they didn’t know how to handle an erratic Chavez with a fortune of Japan and the military might of France. It was indeed a serious headache, where only the best guess approach could stand some chance.
Not So Fast!
Dealing with China is no easy proposition. Had it not been for China’s recent tantrums where it felt it could raise the stakes and follow expansionist policies – not a soul was really concerned either. The world was largely OK to let China do technology theft, copyright infringement, follow a secretive economy and suppressive human rights regime. Never mind that China made most of it, but it’s like a typical attention seeker teen who would go to any extent to just draw attention and feel important about themself. China really is an abnormal problem and begs an equally extraordinary solution. It strongly needs a lesson in behavioural science. It seeks huge attention, wants to be given celebrity status, wishes to lecture everyone about everything and worst of all has an extremely fragile ego.
Talking about solutions, there are three. First, no need to get worked up about China, dealing has to be on a case on case basis. The workable policy towards China is ‘No Carrot & All Sticks’. Secondly, China understands a pure commercial language, like a fresh graduate from a business school, compassion and humility are useless words for it. Thus, maintain an all-transactional link with it, don’t even think of sanctions or breaking trade dealings, it will be plain foolishness. China to date has used the world to grow, it is time for the rest of the world now to get their dividends back. And thirdly, poke it when necessary and exactly where it feels. But just poke it, it does not deserve more attention than that. Continue doing heavy trade and dish out all insults in the same breath when required. Let them realise they are not the only ones born smart.
When China tries showing military heft, then confront it disproportionately, it will buckle down. For all its big mouth it doesn’t have a matching spine, unlike Western militaries that are combat-hardened; China knows and fears that. In a very well-researched book ‘Tao of Soldiering: The Chinese Paradigm’ by an Indian author Nihar Kuanr, it has been aptly highlighted that – “Success or failure of HR policies depends as much on several tangible factors, as on various intangible aspects”. The intangibles of the Chinese military were laid bare when a handful of Indian troops confronted a celebrated military power during Galwan clashes, Chinese troops bled and ran for cover.
But a question here begs to be answered – is that all for responding to China? Definitely not, China has had its time under the Sun, it twisted and tweaked every means to gain a dollar. China is now some distance away from reaching its ‘liberty vs prosperity’ equilibrium, it will grow till then. But when it reaches there, the contradictions will start blowing out. The very freedom, which China denied its poor population by selling ‘dreams of prosperity’, will come haunting. The same prosperous people will now ‘dream for freedom’! That will be an unstoppable moment and the world just needs to wait till then. If China chooses military confrontation for its skewed desires as wished by Chairman Xi, it will only hasten that moment. In any way China will have to face its ‘Moment of Truth’ and that’s not far away! Till then, as they say, let there be business as usual!
–The writer has varied experience in security paradigm and is a keen follower of international geopolitics. He is also the author of popular blog site (geostrat.in) on geo-strategic affairs. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda.
-The writer has varied experience in the security paradigm and is a keen follower of global geopolitics. His work has been regularly featured in national publications. Visit newsanalytics.in to access more articles from the author. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
