The rebels’ offensive against the Syrian government since November 27 has resulted in the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad. The offensive, particularly by a group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led to the fall of key cities, including Aleppo, Homs and Hama, in quick succession. On December 8, the rebels took control of Damascus, forcing Bashar al-Assad to flee Syria along with his family. The Assad family is now said to have been granted asylum in Russia. All this has exacerbated the already worsening crisis in West Asia.
The end of Assad’s rule is considered as Syria being freed from the tyranny and dominance of the Assad family that had a tight grip over Syria for more than 50 years. However, the overthrow of the Assad regime need not automatically translate into the ending of the Syrian Civil War. It is therefore pertinent to briefly consider the background of the Syrian Civil War and the role of external actors.
This article focuses on the role that Türkiye has played in Syria over the course of the civil war as well as what role it could play in the future following the recent developments. Türkiye has been denying its support to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in the current offensive. Also, how Türkiye’s relations with this outfit turn out in the future remains to be seen. However, the current turn of events puts Türkiye in a better position regarding Syria.
The 2011 protests turned into a civil war between the Syrian government and the rebel forces. Russia and Iran supported the Assad government, while the rebels were backed by the United States and its allies, including France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Türkiye, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates
Türkiye’s Role in the Syrian Civil War
While this offensive could be viewed as an opening of an additional theatre of conflict in West Asia, the happenings in Syria are a part of the Syrian Civil War. The civil war began in 2011 and never ended, continuing for over a decade in varying intensities – high and low.
In 2011, considered a watershed year in the geopolitics of West Asia and North Africa, the entire region witnessed a people’s movement known as the Arab Spring, which caused regime changes in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya. These uprisings did spread to other West Asian and North African countries as well. However, they did not exactly achieve results similar to Egypt, Tunisia and Libya.
The protests that started in Syria in 2011 turned into a civil war between the Syrian government and the rebel forces. Russia and Iran supported the Assad government, while the rebels were backed by the United States and its allies, including France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Türkiye, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
US President-elect Donald Trump says the events unfolding in Syria should not be a concern of the United States. There is uncertainty over the involvement of regional and extra-regional powers in Syria. This situation allows Türkiye to pursue its aim of becoming a leader of the region and the Muslim world
The parallel rise of the Islamic State complicated the civil war as the US and its allies, including Türkiye, were engaged in combating this terror group. Further, Türkiye was also involved in carrying out military strikes against various Kurdish groups based in Syria along Türkiye’s border.
How Türkiye Benefits From the Present Situation
Türkiye has been a key player in West Asia and North Africa, particularly Syria, and is likely to push to continue its influence in Syria. Several factors could be considered that are expected to place Türkiye in a better position in Syria as compared to other powers.
First, there is uncertainty over the involvement of regional and extra-regional powers in Syria. While the US and Russia have their military bases in Syria, it remains to be seen if these two and other powers as well would get involved in Syria. US President-elect Donald Trump has stated that the events unfolding in Syria should not be a concern of the US and as such there should be no involvement of the US. Russia and Iran, two staunch allies of the Assad regime, hardly responded to the rebels’ offensive that ousted Assad. With Russia engaged in the war with Ukraine and Iran weakened due to conflict with Israel, Syria could now probably offer Türkiye a free run.
Second, the chaos ensuing from the rebels’ offensive allows Türkiye to consolidate its hold on Syria on the pretext of national security. Since 2016, Türkiye and its ally the Syrian National Army (SNA) have held large swathes of areas in northern Syria under the excuse of carrying out military operations against various Kurdish groups. The Kurds, scattered over many countries in West Asia such as Türkiye, Syria, Iraq and Iran, have been fighting for a country of their own. Türkiye views the Kurds and in particular groups like the Kurdish Workers’ Party (abbreviated as PKK in Turkish), as a threat to its national security. Türkiye and its Syrian allies launched Operation Euphrates Shield in northern Syria in 2016. Parallel to the events taking place in Syria, Türkiye’s operations against the Kurds have continued. Recently, Türkiye attacked the city of Manbij, located along the Türkiye-Syria border. In this city, fighting broke out between the Kurdish groups backed by the US and the Turkish armed forces.
Syrian public would continue to face uncertainty and insecurity in the absence of a stable government in the country. Syria may again be thrown into turmoil, which would facilitate external powers like Türkiye to advance its geopolitical interests in the regional and global order with Syria as a means
Third, Syria could be a mechanism for Türkiye to pursue its aim to become a leader of the Muslim world. The Israel-Hamas war has caused the Arab countries to condemn violence and support the Palestinian cause. However, there has been a lack of enthusiasm among the Arab States to pursue the Palestinian issue rigorously. Türkiye has been projecting itself as a major sympathiser of the Palestinians. To show its solidarity with Palestine, Türkiye recently severed its ties with Israel. Also, during the Joint Summit Meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Arab League in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan denounced Muslim countries for their lack of response to the conflict in Gaza. Should Türkiye consolidate its position in Syria, it could project itself as providing a counter to Israel while the Arab States, Iran and Russia were unable to do so.
As much as the swift offensive, that dislodged the Syrian government, was surprising it has now also raised several questions. Transfer of power and succession remain major questions. Further, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group at the forefront of this offensive, could find it difficult to dissociate from its former alliance with Al Qaeda. Although the rebels have dislodged the Assad regime, the Syrian public would continue to face uncertainty and insecurity in the absence of any stable and inclusive governance mechanism in place. It implies that Syria could again be thrown into turmoil which would facilitate external powers like Türkiye to advance its geopolitical interests in the regional and global order with Syria as a means.
–The writer is an Independent Political Analyst and Researcher based in Vadodara. Follow him on Twitter: @NiranjanMarjani. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
