Ranking highest among the regional countries in the Global Soft Power Index 2021, the UAE has come a long way from being a US$37 billion GDP in 1985 to a US$450 billion economy in 2021.
However, the year 2022 started with a drone attack in the UAE launched by the Houthi rebels from Yemen raising questions about the security of the Gulf country. The Houthi attack on the Abu Dhabi international airport and the ADNOC oil facilities in the Musaffah industrial area leading to the death of two Indians and one Pakistani national has brought security concerns to the forefront.
Though the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed a comprehensive and thorough response to the attacks, the UAE will need to devise a long-term approach to self-sufficiency in security and defence capability. The UAE is discussing defence upgrade in this context and the Emirati envoy to the United Nations has confirmed ongoing discussions with Washington that hosts the busiest air base in the world for surveillance flights at Al-Dhafra.
A decade ago, Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan gave a glimpse of UAE’s defence policy mandating aggressive response if it is attacked. He led the modernisation process of the UAE armed forces through massive arms purchases, multiple defence pacts, professionalization of military and development of domestic arms manufacturing programme.
The UAE is the second largest recipient of arms from Canada and Australia while it exports arms to Egypt, Jordan and Algeria. It has been engaged in enhancement of advanced air and missile defence capability along with expansion of its intelligence, reconnaissance and target-acquisition capabilities. At the opening of International Defence Exhibition 2021, UAE revealed that it had signed a US$1.36 billion arms deal in order to procure drones and advanced artillery for the Emirati armed forces.
F-35 Combat Aircraft and Iron Dome
Use of drones and missiles within the Emirati territory situated more than 1,800 km from the Houthi stronghold in Saada is a matter of concern for the UAE as it signifies a breach in the defence. The drone attack may provide momentum to weapon acquisition by the Gulf country that has earlier shown interest in purchase of F-35 combat aircraft from the US and Iron Dome air defence system from Israel.
The F-35 deal with the US that was put on hold in December 2021 over humanitarian situation in Yemen and pre-conditions pertaining to removal of Chinese company Huawei from the telecom network, might see the light of the day.
Similarly, it may provide impetus to the purchase of Iron Dome, a mobile all-weather air defence system, by the UAE. The Emirates finds the equipment effective and has shown interest while Israel is working on enhancing the manoeuvrability as well as integrating Battlefield Management System into the Iron Dome.
In December 2021, Israel refused to sell Iron Dome to UAE on account of the rapprochement with Iran, however, Houthi drones penetrating deep in the UAE might be a deal-breaker for Tehran and Abu Dhabi paving way for the Iron Dome procurement by the Emirates.
Self-Sufficiency in Defence Capabilities
Also, the drone attack calls for self-sufficiency in defence capabilities for the UAE. A week after the drone attack, the US forces at Al-Dhafra airbase intercepted two ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis and the group spokesperson Yahya Saree proclaimed that the attack had achieved its objectives with high accuracy.
Nevertheless, the UAE leadership is not in a position to overlook the limitations of the partnership. As per a US military official, the Patriot missile defence systems at Al-Dhafra would not have intercepted the missiles if they were targeting areas outside the base. Also, the UAE has not been designated as a major non-NATO ally by the US unlike Kuwait and Bahrain.
In addition, the attacks also re-emphasize on the use of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) in military technology. AI has the potential to be a force multiplier in warfare and its integration in the weapons of C4ISR systems enables automation, reducing economic and human costs.
The UAE is at the forefront as far as use of artificial intelligence is concerned; it founded Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence as well as appointed a Minister for AI. In 2019, the UAE had founded a technology company EDGE aiming to strengthen defence against unconventional threats including electronic and drone attacks. As per the Managing Director of EDGE, the UAE defence industry needs to build resistance and resilience to the newest types of threats and embrace emerging technologies.
This is the time for the Emirates to introspect its defence capabilities and work on advancement of its technology as well as human resource. With Houthis advising foreign investors and firms to leave unsafe UAE and threatening to attack the site of Dubai Expo, it is clear that the group aims to tarnish UAE’s image as a tourism and commercial hub which will have definite repercussions for the Emirati economy.
Political manoeuvring to stabilise the situation might bring momentary peace but possessing a strong defence capability will go a long way for the Emirates to remain a safe haven for businesses worldwide.
-The writer is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi. Views are of the author and do not reflect the views of either ICWA or Government of India
