As the conflicts the world over continue to intensify; North Korea launching a missile on October 30, 2024, demonstrated to the world that Pyongyang is willing to assert its presence and powerplay in the region.
The missile launch demonstrated the country’s unrelenting stand in developing its nuclear program. The launch comes after North Korea sent 10,000 troops to Russia pledging its support in its war against Ukraine and drew strong criticism and added sanctions from the West.
North Korea has repeatedly accused the US and South Korea of provoking tensions in the Korean Peninsula and taking an anti-North Korea stand.
North Korea’s recent bonhomie and strategic ties with Russia underscore a geopolitical shift that not only threatens regional stability in East Asia but also the broader global balance of power.
North Korea’s recent bonhomie and strategic ties with Russia underscore a geopolitical shift that not only threatens regional stability in East Asia but also the broader global balance of power
The recent missile launch symbolises an increasingly aggressive stance toward the United States and its allies. Even more discerning, is the broader geopolitical context of the emergence of an anti-Western coalition – North Korea, Russia, China, and Iran poised to challenge the Western dominance and global dynamics.
A Missile Test with Strategic Messaging
North Korea’s recent missile launch which splashed down near Japan is an important milestone in its ICBM capability. The solid-fuel technology version of the Hwasong-18 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) is the most advanced long-range missile in the arsenal of North Korea.
A solid-fuel ICBM has higher readiness levels, besides making it significantly more difficult to detect and counter as compared to liquid-fuelled missiles.
North Korea has not only demonstrated its increasingly sophisticated missile development but also sent a strategic message through this launch, that with its strategic reach, it could target distant destinations including the US, which adds teeth to its evolving nuclear status and deterrence.
North Korea has demonstrated its increasingly sophisticated missile development and sent a strategic message through this launch, that with its strategic reach, it could target distant destinations including the US, which adds teeth to its evolving nuclear status and deterrence
Yet, there remain some technical challenges regarding re-entry technology of the missile, but this could be easily overcome with potential support from its allies.
The Rise of an Anti-Western Coalition: Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea
North Korea’s increasing solidarity with Russia is indicative of the fast-emerging anti-West bloc that also encompasses China and Iran.
These countries, while each having distinct motivations, share a common objective of reshaping the global power calculus dominated by the US-led West and weakening their global standing.
Some of these countries have lately exhibited a dynamic of synergy between their military, technology as well as economic partnership.
Pyongyang’s actions could trigger a regional arms race, compelling Japan, South Korea, and other regional powers to enhance their missile defence systems and strengthen their security alliances
- Russia and China: As the two largest players in this coalition, Russia and China present a formidable counterweight to US-led coalitions such as NATO and the Quad.
Russia, facing heavy Western sanctions and isolated due to its actions in Ukraine, has found an ally in China, which provides economic and diplomatic support.
Their partnership, though complex, strengthens each country’s hand in undermining Western initiatives in Europe and Asia.
- Iran: Iran’s ambitions in the Middle East, particularly its opposition to the US influence, align it closely with Russia and North Korea.
Through shared missile and drone technology, Iran has bolstered its military capabilities and provided critical support to Russia in Ukraine, while also expanding its regional influence through proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
- North Korea: North Korea’s membership is especially noteworthy in this bloc because it extends its footprint into East Asia.
North Korea benefits from this partnership in terms of obtaining sophisticated technology and its deterrence against the US, South Korea, and Japan.
North Korea’s tightening cooperation with Russia enshrines a seemingly emerging geopolitical transition capable of not only upsetting the power balance in East Asia but also worldwide.
Implications for Global and Regional Security
This coalition presents multifaceted risks to global stability. North Korea’s advancements in missile technology and its alignment with Russia signify an intensifying threat that poses challenges to regional and global stability.
The implications of this emerging bloc are far-reaching, impacting not only regional military postures but also global economic dynamics.
As these countries deepen their cooperation, traditional Western alliances may need to be reconfigured to effectively counter the evolving threats posed by this coalition
Rising Threat of Regional Conflict: North Korea’s expanded missile range and its alignment with Russia heighten the risk of confrontations in East Asia. Japan and South Korea, two of North Korea’s closest neighbours, face immediate threats, as do US military assets stationed in the region.
Pyongyang’s actions could trigger a regional arms race, compelling Japan, South Korea, and other regional powers to enhance their missile defence systems and strengthen their security alliances.
A Fractured Global Power Structure: The alignment of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea challenges the established Western-led order. This new bloc seeks to counterbalance Western economic and military influence through diplomatic and strategic coordination.
As these countries deepen their cooperation, traditional Western alliances may need to be reconfigured to effectively counter the evolving threats posed by this coalition.
Proliferation Risks: North Korea’s missile program raises concerns of diluting the norms that underline nuclear non-proliferation. It threatens other countries to relook at their nuclear policies and advances in missile technology that could create regional instability, nuclear proliferation, and arms race.
The biggest beneficiary of this newfound North Korean adventurism is China, which has created another friction point both regionally and globally in its favour.
North Korea’s activities could destabilise the international markets especially the East Asian markets which constitute a region of global trade and critical supply chain impacting a range of industries, potentially exacerbating the economic challenges facing the world today
Economic Repercussions: North Korea’s activities could destabilise the international markets especially the East Asian markets which constitute a region of global trade and critical supply chain impacting a range of industries potentially exacerbating the economic challenges facing the world today.
A Strategic Response: Diplomacy, Deterrence, and Defence
While diplomacy remains central, the risks posed by North Korea’s evolving capabilities and the alignment of a new anti-Western bloc require a nuanced strategy.
To counter North Korea’s advanced missile threats, the US, South Korea, and Japan would have to enhance their anti-ballistic missile defence systems.
Deploying advanced technologies such as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) and bolstering intelligence-sharing capabilities are such necessary steps in preparing for potential escalations.
Furthermore, isolating entities that facilitate North Korea’s technological advancements, especially those in Russia and China, would add economic pressure to Pyongyang’s regime.
The most important is engaging North Korea through tier-two diplomatic channels for de-escalation, particularly as this anti-Western coalition becomes more formidable.
The most important is engaging North Korea through tier-two diplomatic channels for de-escalation, particularly as this anti-Western coalition becomes more formidable
However, such diplomacy should be pursued with realistic expectations, as Pyongyang’s strategic goals and anti-US stand are unlikely to shift significantly.
In sum, North Korea’s latest missile test, along with its alignment with an anti-Western bloc, threatens to change the strategic balance of power in the world.
This military authoritarianism is quite paradoxical but it is a challenge that may redefine geopolitics and new power centres. As North Korea, Russia, China, and Iran continue to cooperate, managing this new alliance will demand diplomatic agility, enhanced defence capabilities, and a renewed commitment to maintaining global stability.
While there are fault lines and fissures within these nations, the unification factor of anti-US led West remains a strong bond. The stakes are higher than ever, managing it will entail substantial diplomatic measures and improvements in military deterrence to maintain global stability and peace.
The author, a PVSM, AVSM, VSM has had an illustrious career spanning nearly four decades. A distinguished Armoured Corps officer, he has served in various prestigious staff and command appointments including Commander Independent Armoured Brigade, ADG PP, GOC Armoured Division and GOC Strike 1. The officer retired as DG Mechanised Forces in December 2017 during which he was the architect to initiate process for reintroduction of Light Tank and Chairman on the study on C5ISR for Indian Army. Subsequently he was Consultant MoD/OFB from 2018 to 2020. He is also a reputed defence analyst, a motivational speaker and prolific writer on matters of military, defence technology and national security. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily carry the views of Raksha Anirveda
