Indus Water Treaty: A Strategic Checkmate

India suspended the 1960 Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan as a strategic move after Pakistan-sponsored terrorists killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam. India wanted the treaty reviewed for a long time because it favoured Pakistan but honoured it on humanitarian grounds. However, Pakistan’s continued involvement in terrorism, in a total departure from the treaty’s preamble of peace and harmony, forced India to take punitive action, which will adversely affect Pakistan in the days to come

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After surviving four wars between India and Pakistan and a series of terrorist attacks, the 65-year-old Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was suspended by India on April 24, 2025, in response to the gruesome massacre of 26 tourists by the Pakistan-sponsored terrorists belonging to The Resistance Front (cover cell of Lashkar-e-Taiba) at Pahalgam in Baisaran Valley in the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir. The suspension of the treaty means water flow from the western group of rivers – Indus (Sindhu), Jhelum and Chenab, and their tributaries like Kishanganga and Tawi, will be controlled (stopped) by India. This is one of the most stringent measures adopted by India against Pakistan since 1960 for harbouring, protecting, training, arming and financing anti-India terror groups. Earlier, India refrained from suspending IWT on humanitarian grounds for agricultural belts along the Indus basin and its course.

India’s move will severely impact irrigation and drinking water supply to Pakistan’s two provinces Western Punjab and Sindh during the peak summer months. The water flow from north to south in these rivers will be stopped immediately from wherever it is regulated by dams, runoff bundhs, regulators, sluice gates, or hydropower projects. However, the flow from natural channels and seepage will continue. During monsoons, overflowing water could be released abruptly causing flash floods. Earlier, there was a provision to inform releasing and stopping water to low-lying villages along the course. It is a well-known fact water takes its own course once blocked.

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Two Clusters of Rivers

The Indus Water Treaty is a bilateral treaty between India and Pakistan on the water distribution of six major western rivers Sutlej, Beas, Ravi, Chenab, Jhelum and the main river Indus. The former five are tributaries of the Indus and merge into it at various points. Indus and Sutlej originate at Mansarovar, Tibet. The group of rivers is divided into two clusters; the Eastern Cluster has Sutlej, Beas and Ravi. They are the lifelines of western India. The Western Cluster consists of Chenab, Jhelum and Indus. They feed the Punjab and Sindh province of Pakistan. The treaty was facilitated by the World Bank. After a series of drafts by hydrologists, the final treaty was signed in Karachi by Prime Minister Jawahar Lal Nehru and Field Marshal Ayub Khan of Pakistan on September 19, 1960. The treaty was ratified by both countries and duly endorsed by the World Bank.

The treaty gives India control of the water of three Eastern Rivers – Sutlej, Beas and Ravi – which have a total annual mean flow of 41 billion cubic metres and permits to build multi-purpose projects incorporating huge dams, reservoirs, hydropower stations, spillovers and canal headworks, canals and use water for irrigation and drinking water schemes. The surplus water can be discharged in lower areas but an advance adequate warning to be issued to Pakistan to ensure farmers/villagers may clear off to safe zones.

On the other hand, the treaty gives control of the waters of three western rivers Indus, Chenab and Jhelum, which have a much larger total annual mean flow of 80 billion cubic metres, to Pakistan. It permits India to use 30% of the water and the rest goes to Pakistan. India can utilise the water for hydropower stations, navigation, irrigation and fishing but not to build dams or reservoirs. Any structure to control water must be approved and cleared by Pakistan.

The preamble of the IWT recognises the rights and obligations of both nations and the optimum use of water resources from the Indus system of rivers in a spirit of goodwill, cooperation and friendship. IWT was considered one of the most successful water-sharing treaties, which has been respected by both nations, who have fought four wars. But, after the Pahalgam terror attack, India suspended the treaty. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has warned Pakistan, saying, “Blood and water cannot flow together in Indus.”

big bang

Let’s study the rivers of western India and eastern Punjab or the historical area of Sapta Sidhu or greater Punjab and Jammu Kashmir of Pre-partition United India.

India’s move will severely impact the irrigation and drinking water supply to Pakistan’s provinces of Punjab and Sindh. The waters of these rivers can be stopped immediately with dams, runoff bundhs, regulators, sluice gates, or hydropower projects. However, the flow from natural channels and seepage will continue. During monsoons, overflowing water can be released abruptly, causing flash floods

Indus: It is Asia’s major trans-Himalayan river. The Puranic name of the river is Sindhu or Hindu River. It is 1380 km long and was the location of the Indus Valley Civilisation long ago. It originates from Mansarovar Lake at Mount Kailash in Tibet and travels East to West. It enters India near Demchok, touches Karu, Leh, Nimu, Talahati, and crosses over to PoK near Kargil and approaches Skardu, turns South, touches Swabi, Dasu, Dera Ismail Khan, Miawali, Sukkur, Hyderabad in Pakistan, and finally reach the Arabian Sea at Karachi. The river has an 11,20,000 sq km basin and an annual discharge of 58,000 sq metre per sec.

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Pakistan has constructed nine dams/barrages on the Indus River. Tarbelea Dam, Kalabagh Dam, Guddu barrage, Sukkur barrage, Kotli barrage, Taunasa barrage, Chasma barrage, Jinnah barrage and Sindh barrage are being planned just before the river joins the Arabian Sea. We have a small 100 mega-watt hydropower project between Karu and Leh, otherwise, India has so far no control structures on the Indus and let water smoothly go to PoK and Pakistan.

Chenab: It originates in the Lahul Spiti region of the Upper Himalayan Range. The Puranic name of the river is Ashikani Nadi. Two mountain rivers Chandra and Bagha merge at Tandi near Keylong (Bara la cha la) in Himachal and flow from East to West and reach Ramban, Reasi in the Jammu area, touch Akhnoor and cross over to Pakistan near Pallanwala area. It is 913 km long. The most controversial water control structures are on this river. Kiru Hydro Electricity project 624 mw (HEP) Kishtwar district, Dul Hasti Khistwar (390 MW), Lower Kainal HEP, Doda

district, Pakal Dul HEP, Kishtwar (540 MW), Baglihar HEP Ramban (900 MW), Doda distict, Salal Dam (690 mw), Reasi distict. Baglihar and Salal can control water flow towards Pakistan and are a bone of contention. Ratle Dam is under consruction at Doda. Chenab water can be controlled by India.

Jhelum:  It is the westernmost of the five rivers of Punjab. Its Puranic name is Vyath. It originates from Vernag Spring in the Pir Panjal Mountains. Greeks named it Hydapes and fought a major battle with Indian King Porus (Puru) in 335 BC. It is 725 km long and a tributary to Chenab. It travels through Wular Lake in Srinagar and crosses over to PoK.

Kishan Ganga meets Jhelum at Domel, then flows into Mangla Dam in the Mirpur district in PoK. Then. it flows through Pakistan’s Punjab and confluences with Chenab at Trimmu in Jhang district. Most of the important cities of Jammu & Kashmir are on the bank of Jhelum. India has built three HEP on Jhelum. Uri 1, Uri 2 at Baramulla and Kishanganga HEP (330 MW) at Bandipora. Pakistan has also built five major dams on Jhelum. India can partially control Jhelum flow.

Ravi: It is also one of the major rivers of the Indian subcontinent. As per Puranas, its ancient name was Iravati as well as Purushni. Greeks named it Hydraotes. The river originates from Lahul Spiti Valle and takes full shape at Bara Bangal in Kangra district, The length of the river is 720 km and the total catchment area is 14,442 sq km. The course touches on Barabasu, Dalhousie, Chamba, Talwara, Pathankot and Madhopur. Then, it flows along the India-Pakistan border for 80 km near Dera Baba Nanak and finally merges into Chenab at Ahmadnagar Sial. India built Ranjit Sagar Dam, 24 km upstream from Madhopur, at Village Thein in 1980 and three hydroelectricity projects at Baira Suil HEP and Chamera 1 and 2 HEP in the Kangra belt. India commissioned a barrage at Shahpur Kandi in 2025, thus utilising 100% water of Ravi water. Madhopur head is the last point in India and the upper Bari Doab canal originated from this point. Pakistan only gets water in monsoons when the river is overflowing.

Beas: It originates from Beas Kund at Rohtang. Its Puranic name is Vipasha. Greeks called it Hyphasis. Alexander turned back from the bank of River Beas in 326 BC. The river flows from North to Southwest along Manali, Kullu, Mandi, Panckkula, Beas, Govidwal and Sultanpur Lodhi, and confluences with Sutlej at Harike Pattan near Makhu in Punjab. The length of the river is 470 km. The drainage area is approximately 20,000 sq km. Pong Dam was built at Talwara in 1974 and Padoh Dam in 1977.

Under the treaty, India could use only 38 billion cubic metres of the total 260 billion cubic metres of annual water flow of the Indus system, which is only 15% of the total. In Eastern rivers, the total average flow is just 48 billion cubic metres, which means India’s share comes to 86 billion cubic metres only. In the overall context, 70% of the water share of all six rivers was available to Pakistan and India’s share was just 30%

Sutlej: It is a major river in South Asia and the Subcontinent. It originates from Rakshas Tal in Tibet. The Tibetan name of the river is Langqen Zhangbo (Elephant River). Its Puranic name is Sataduru. It has 100 channels. The river is 309 km long. It travels initially Northwest and turns Southwest at Shiplika Pass before entering India. It reaches Simla and Rupnagar, Ludhiana and Phillaur, then turns west and merges with Beas at Harike Pattan. It crosses over to Pakistan at Ferozpur. It travels near Bedian, Kasur and meets Chenab at Unch Pakistan, called Panchnad and finally debouches in Indus at Khairpur, west of Bahawalpur. Its water is allocated to India. Bhakra Nagal is the largest dam in India and is a multi-purpose project. Govind Sagar is the largest artificial lake and water reservoir in India. The mean annual average flow is 14 million acre-feet. It is the lifeline of Himachal, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan. Sirhind Canal and Rajasthan Canal (Indira Gandhi Canal) originate from Harike Headworks irrigating Punjab. It is a lifeline of the Rajasthan deserts.  Hussaniwallah headworks is the last point in India, from where Gang Canal is born and irrigates Ganganagar, Suratgarh, and Fazilka. Farmers of Punjab and Rajasthan worship this river.

The Main Provisions of IWT

  1. There were two groups of rivers. The Eastern group consisting of Sutlej, Beas and Ravi would be for the exclusive use of India, and the Western group consisting of Indus, Chenab and Jhelum for the use of Pakistan. It will include all lakes, tributaries, deltas, and channels on these rivers. All other lakes, creeks, tributaries, channels, and deltas not included in the five rivers will be treated as part of the Great Indus System.
  2. Unutilised or Underutilised water by one country will not be acquired by the other nation
  3. 10 years will be given to Pakistan to build its canal system and allow water from its rivers to be used by India
  4. India was forced to contribute 62.6 million Sterling pounds to Pakistan for the construction of new headworks and canals in Pakistan. India paid the amount in 10 equal instalments even during the 1962 and 1965 Wars.
  5. Both countries agreed to share data and cooperate for optimum use.
  6. Both nations will have a commissioner and a dispute-solving mechanism. The Indus Commission would meet once a year.
  7. Both commissioners will submit annual reports on the construction of dams or other structures on the rivers,
  8. Both will inform each other of plans to construct dams/Headworks/ Canals.
  9. In case of violation, the treaty may be cancelled, and both nations will not attack each other’s Headworks/Dams.

Prime Minister Modi, in his address to the nation on May 12, after the successful completion of Operation Sindoor boldly conveyed that talks and terror as well as trade and terror cannot be accepted, and blood and water cannot flow together. IWT will remain suspended. Chenab almost went dry about a week ago and residents of Akhnoor walked across two banks for the first time in the last 65 years

IWT Grossly Favoured Pakistan

The Indus Water Treaty was based on peace, harmony and mutual trust. India wanted the treaty reviewed as it was grossly in favour of Pakistan.  India contended that it can use only 38 billion cubic metres of the total 260 billion cubic metres of annual water flow of the Indus system, which is only 15% of the total. In Eastern rivers, the total average flow is just 48 billion cubic metres. It means India’s share comes to 86 billion cubic metres only. In the overall context, 70% of the water share of all six rivers is available to Pakistan and India’s share is just 30%.

India continued honouring the treaty despite the wars but a series of terrorist attacks sponsored by Pakistan tested the patience of India. The Pahalgam terror attack finally forced India to suspend it/hold in abeyance for the first time as it is a total departure from the IWT preamble of peace and harmony. Prime Minister Modi, in his address to the nation on May 12, after the successful completion of Operation Sindoor boldly conveyed that talks and terror as well as trade and terror cannot be accepted, and blood and water cannot flow together. IWT will remain suspended. Chenab almost went dry about a week ago and residents of Akhnoor walked across two banks for the first time in the last 65 years.

-The writer is an Indian Army veteran and a defence analyst. He has keen interest in Geo-strategic affairs and writes regularly on internal and external affairs issues related to India and neighbours. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda

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