Despite its potential, India’s leadership role as the “Voice” of the Global South faces challenges, such as its own internal development issues, as it itself continues to grapple with poverty, inequality, and infrastructure deficiencies. And for it to be considered a global power, India needs to address these domestic challenges, first and which will lead to strengthening of India’s credibility and leadership on the global stage.
But despite all these obstacles, given its size, its growing economy, and the regional position, it is quite but natural for India to aim at becoming a developed country and join the league of USA, UK, or Japan, etc. In the next 25 years leading to 100 years of Independent India, India stands at the cusp of making a greater impact at a global stage.
According to an FICCI and McKinsey & Co report titled “India’s Century – Achieving Sustainable, inclusive growth”, India has the potential to become an “economic superpower” before the 100th year of Independence (2047). Another report “Indian Century: Defining India’s Place in a Rapidly Changing Global Economy” by IBM Institute for Business Value, has also predicted that India will be among the world’s highest-growth nations over the coming years.
According to a survey conducted by Pew Research, India, today is a bigger player in the international arena than it was a decade ago. More than half the people in Canada (52%), Australia (53%) and Japan (54%) have a favourable view of India. In fact, as Clyde Prestowitz one of America’s top foreign trade experts and a counsellor to the secretary of commerce in the first Ronald Reagan administration had predicted, “It is going to be India’s century. India is going to be the biggest economy in the world. It is going to be the biggest superpower of the 21st century.”
India’s Strengths
India can have a shot at dominating the world affairs, given its large population, a strong network of quality educational institutions, a booming high-tech sector, and an established functioning democracy.
During the last 10 years, PM Modi has preserved India’s strategic autonomy, shying away from binding alliances. India has deepened its trade relations with Russia, while continuing to improve ties with the US. The Modi government has further developed its partnerships with countries like France and Japan, especially on infrastructure and defence.
Regionally, Delhi has continued previous governments’ initiatives, albeit under the new slogans of “Act East” and “Neighbourhood First.” Relations with Bangladesh have improved, as the India–Bangladesh Land Boundary Agreement of 2015 has helped resolve the two countries’ border disputes, at least to some extent, amicably.
Fearful of growing Chinese investments, India has also extended numerous lines of credit to neighbouring countries. Yet, key disagreements remain unresolved, from the sharing of river waters to migration. Anti-Indian sentiment persists across South Asia, with its neighbours forging closer ties with Beijing to hedge against Indian predominance.
Despite its potential, India’s leadership role as the “Voice” of the Global South faces challenges, such as its own internal development issues, as it itself continues to grapple with poverty, inequality, and infrastructure deficiencies
A Proactive Defence Strategy
Under PM Modi, India’s outlook on national security has shifted from cautious to proactive. The 2014 “Doval Doctrine,” introduced by his national security advisor, presents a hawkish approach to national security that has heavily influenced India’s orientation on defence. Beijing and Islamabad strengthening their ties and Chinese forays into the Indian Ocean have brought the possibility of a multifront war to the fore. Alongside this, advancements in military technology have highlighted the need to develop the country’s armed forces based on an all-encompassing assessment of current and future needs, rather than on defeating specific potential adversaries.
In keeping with his strongman image, PM Modi has repeatedly expressed his commitment to making India militarily strong. To this end, his focus has been on transforming the armed forces to bolster capacity, increase tri-service integration, and to achieve self-reliance or Aatmanirbharta in defence production.
Such reform processes only took off during his second term, with the creation of the post of Chief of Defence Staff (above the Army, Navy and Air Force) in 2019 and the Department of Military Affairs within the Defence Ministry a year later. His government also introduced an integration plan to restructure the tri-services into three theatre commands, focused on Pakistan, China, and maritime operations in the Indian Ocean Region, respectively.
India has also markedly increased its investments in new defence technology. The Galwan conflict in 2020 was a turning point, after which the military received emergency powers to issue defence contracts up to US$ 36 million without time-consuming bureaucratic approval or tender processes. The 2024 defence budget further emphasised acquiring deep-tech capabilities through schemes like “Innovations for Defence Excellence” seeking to incentivise the emergence of startups in cutting-edge fields (like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and nanotech).
However, India’s defence expenditure has seen meagre hikes, even declining as a percentage of gross domestic product since 2020. This will likely impact modernisation and procurement plans. While existing deals will continue to run, Delhi is unlikely to sign any major new military ones with Russia, focusing instead on diversifying its weapons base by fostering indigenous manufacturing drawing on Western technology.
Since 2020, the Modi government has released five “Positive Indigenisation Lists” indexing defence equipment that is on a phased import ban and to be procured locally instead. A restructuring of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), is also under discussion. The aim is to streamline its functions to focus on high-end futuristic technologies and delegate a bigger role to the private sector going forward. This could shift much of the DRDO’s decision-making to the Prime Minister’s Office, which would be directly involved in key projects in consequence.
Yet, challenges persist. Progress on defence reforms has been slow amid deep-rooted inter-service rivalries and “preserving the status quo” mindsets. The changes that have been made have also received mixed reviews. While supporters laud command-structure reforms for giving the military a greater voice in decision-making related to national security, critics view these interventions as an attempt to exploit inertia in the armed forces to further assert Modi’s dominance and gain political dividends. However, India still lacks a formal, comprehensive national-security strategy, resulting in an absence of clarity on long-term defence preparedness.
India can have a shot at dominating the world affairs, given its large population, a strong network of quality educational institutions, a booming high-tech sector, and an established functioning democracy
Despite some progress, India is far from Modi’s original goal of producing 70 percent of military equipment locally by 2020. It remains the largest defence importer in the world. On big-ticket items like tanks and jets especially, Indian industries struggle to meet the qualitative requirements of the military.
Developing a strong domestic defence industry can reduce reliance on foreign arms imports and ensure self-sufficiency in meeting defence needs. India’s increasing focus on indigenous aircraft production, like the Tejas fighter jet, is a good step towards achieving self-reliance or Aatmanirbharta in defence manufacturing.
Finally, achieving Modi’s aim to double defence exports to US$ 5 billion by 2024-2025 from US$ 2.63 billion in 2023-2024 will require sustained investment in the defence-industry ecosystem – a strategic priority for the new government.
Economic Growth and Development
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts India to be the world’s third-largest economy by 2028. However, to maintain this growth, India needs to diversify its economy beyond service sectors and focus on boosting manufacturing and technological innovation.
According to Goldman Sachs Research, China will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy by around 2035. In 2050, the world’s five largest economies will be China, the US, India, Indonesia, and (perhaps) Germany, while India will catch up and emerge as the world’s second-largest economy overtaking the USA by 2075.
A strong and diversified economy is the basis of a superpower. This translates to continuous economic growth fuelled by industrialisation, innovation, and a thriving entrepreneurial ecosystem. Investments in infrastructure, technology, and education are crucial to enhance productivity and global competitiveness. Additionally, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and fostering a business-friendly environment are crucial for economic expansion.
During the last 10 years, PM Modi has preserved India’s strategic autonomy, shying away from binding alliances. India has deepened its trade relations with Russia, while continuing to improve ties with the US
Human Capital Development
A superpower’s strength lies not just in its economy but also in its people. Prioritising education and skill development is essential to cultivate a highly qualified and skilled workforce. Investing in healthcare and social welfare programmes improves the quality of life and boosts citizens’ productivity. Promoting gender equality and inclusivity ensures that the entire population can contribute to the nation’s growth.
India has the world’s largest youth population, more than 60% under the age of 35. This results in a significant potential workforce, a crucial asset for economic growth. However, taking full benefits of this dividend depends on effectively skilling this young population to meet the demands of the job market.
Technological Advancement
In today’s knowledge-driven world, technology is a game-changer. Fostering research and development (R&D) in critical sectors like information technology (IT), biotechnology, and renewable energy is vital. Embracing emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, and robotics can move the wheel of innovation and fuel economic growth. Collaboration between academia, industry, and government is essential for technological breakthroughs.
Infrastructure Development
A well-developed infrastructure network acts as the backbone of a thriving economy. Investing in transportation, energy, and communication infrastructure improves connectivity and supports economic activity. Modernising urban infrastructure allows a growing population to flourish and promotes sustainable development. Expanding rural infrastructure bridges the urban-rural divide and fosters inclusive growth.
In keeping with his strongman image, PM Modi has repeatedly expressed his commitment to making India militarily strong. To this end, his focus has been on transforming the armed forces to bolster capacity, increase tri-service integration, and to achieve self-reliance or Aatmanirbharta in defence production
While India’s potential is undeniable, significant challenges remain. Let us examine these critical areas which require focused efforts and find out what is being done:
Education and Skill Development: Equipping the young population with relevant skills is crucial for economic growth and global competitiveness. The introduction of the National Education Policy (NEP) in 2020 aims to transform India’s education system with a focus on holistic learning, critical thinking, and skill development. The success of this policy will be crucial in addressing educational challenges.
Infrastructure Development: Building robust infrastructure – roads, bridges, electricity grids, and digital networks – is essential for connecting markets, facilitating trade, and driving economic activity.
Healthcare Strengthening: Ensuring access to quality healthcare for all will improve the overall health of the population, leading to a more productive workforce. Initiatives like Ayushman Bharat, Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (AB-PMJAY) have significantly improved health insurance coverage for low-income families. Expanding such schemes and promoting private health insurance can ensure wider access to quality healthcare services.
Inclusive Growth: Bridging the socio-economic divide and ensuring equitable distribution of wealth is essential for long-term stability and social progress. More initiatives like the “Skill India Mission” which focuses on skilling women for jobs in various sectors and the “Stand-Up India” scheme, which provides loans to women entrepreneurs need to be introduced. But at the same time, less than half of urban workers have full-time jobs, while far too much of India’s employment is in under-productive informal sectors. Education, skill-building, and health care are grossly inadequate. A CII report, The India Skills Report 2023 says that only half of young Indians are employable. Also, alarmingly, India’s female labour participation rate has been in a steady decline, having dropped from 32% in 2005 to 19% in 2021. In addition, this large human resources pool is not adequately skilled. For that to happen India will have to adopt the same techniques to skill its population, as done by other Asian rivals.
India must invest heavily in research and development (R&D) to become a leader in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and robotics
Innovation and R&D: India must invest heavily in research and development (R&D) to become a leader in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and robotics. The establishment of the National Mission on Quantum Technologies and the ongoing research efforts in developing indigenous AI applications are positive steps in this direction.
Sustainable Development: Balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability is critical for long-term success is highly important. The good thing is that the government is pushing for renewable energy through initiatives like the “Green Hydrogen Mission” to position India as a leader in clean energy technologies and create a green economy.
Strategic Partnerships: India needs to have strong strategic partnerships with other countries to enhance its global influence and address shared challenges. An example of this is India’s growing partnership with African nations through initiatives like the India-Africa Forum Summit, which focuses on development cooperation and mutual understanding. The recent participation of India, along with the United States, Australia, and Japan, in the Malabar naval exercises in November 2023 also shows growing strategic cooperation between these democracies in the Indo-Pacific region.
Corruption continues to be a major impediment to economic growth and efficient governance. Steps like streamlining bureaucratic procedures to reduce opportunities for officials to exploit red tape for personal gain, online applications, and approvals, minimized human interaction are needed to curb this on a micro-level
Challenges to Overcome
The path to superpower status will not be smooth. Here are some hurdles India needs to address:
Inequality and Poverty: Reducing income inequality is crucial for social stability and inclusive development. Despite economic growth, a significant portion of the population still lives in poverty. However, as per reports, India has ended extreme poverty.
Corruption: Corruption continues to be a major impediment to economic growth and efficient governance. Steps like streamlining bureaucratic procedures to reduce opportunities for officials to exploit red tape for personal gain, online applications, and approvals, minimized human interaction are needed to curb this on a micro-level.
Internal Security Threats: India faces internal security threats from terrorism and Maoist insurgency. Addressing these concerns effectively is essential to ensure stability and attract foreign investment.
Climate Change: India is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change- Rising sea levels, extreme weather, and water scarcity continuously threaten its growth. requires significant investments in adaptation and mitigation strategies.
By When will India Become a Superpower?
Building on the identified focus areas and addressing the challenges, India can achieve superpower status around 2050 by focussing on the following in a phased manner:
2024-2030: Laying the Foundation
India must implement reforms to improve the quality of education, focusing on STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) and vocational training. Investing in building world-class transportation, communication, and energy infrastructure projects. Increasing public spending on healthcare, improve access to medical facilities in rural areas, and invest in medical research. Implementing policies to create jobs, uplift marginalized communities, and bridge the rural-urban divide.
2030-2040: Building Momentum
Increase public and private investments in R&D, focusing on emerging technologies and fostering a culture of innovation. Adopting sustainable development practices, invest in renewable energy sources, and promote environmental protection, and building strong alliances with other countries, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, to address shared challenges and promote regional stability.
By addressing the challenges and using its full potential India can pave the way for a future where it stands tall as a leading global power, shaping the world of the future
2040-2050: The Next Superpower
Take advantage of India’s strengths to become a leading player in sectors like information technology, renewable energy, and manufacturing. Promoting Indian culture and values on the global stage, strengthen cultural diplomacy, and contribute to global discourse on critical issues. Modernising the military, enhance cyber security capabilities, and address internal security threats effectively.
To conclude we can say that the answer to the question- How can India become a Superpower is not a simple one. It requires continuous efforts, strategic vision, and strong commitment from the government, businesses, and citizens alike. By addressing the challenges and using its full potential India can pave the way for a future where it stands tall as a leading global power, shaping the world of the future.
In sum, while barriers remain, the positive forces can, indeed play a crucial role. “Inevitable India” is within reach. India’s greatest challenge will be to make its inevitability tangible and believable to the many constituencies that wish to see India succeed. From being “Incredible India” to “Inevitable India” India must first become a “Credible India”.
-The writer is a New Delhi-based senior commentator on international, defence and strategic affairs and a Media Consultant. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
