“Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has made serious allegations about a plot to establish a ‘Christian state like East Timor’ using parts of Bangladesh and Myanmar, and an offer by a ‘white-skinned man’ to help her return to power if she allowed a foreign nation to build an airbase there.”
— India Today, May 27, 2024
The ouster of Sheikh Hasina as Prime Minister of Bangladesh on August 4, 2024, is attributed to students’ protests led by a student leader Nahid Islam against 30 per cent reservations in government jobs for wards of 1971 Mukti Bahni freedom fighters. But the protests suddenly going violent has tell-tale signs of radical elements with foreign links. Violence claimed the lives of over 300 people, the police station was burnt and protesters damaged Bang Bandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rehman’s statue by pulling it down. He was the architect of the creation of Bangladesh.
As the situation became uncontrollable, the Bangladesh army gave Sheikh Hasina an ultimatum to quit. She had no option but to resign. It is a definite setback for India. It seems Indian intelligence agencies, particularly RAW, failed to read the situation. It is once again intel failure, like in 1975, to see the storm building.
The quota reservation system was scrapped in 2018. But the Supreme Court of Bangladesh revived it in a recent judgment. This was objected to by students. The protest was peaceful for several months but turned violent a few weeks back. It is a warning to India to note how anti-government narratives can turn violent. There is no dearth of radical elements in India.
It is alleged that it was the violence unleashed by cadres of Jamat-e-Islami radicals and the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), the political party of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. The Jamat-e-Islami and BNP have close links with Pakistan’s ISI, which works in unison with the CIA. BNP and Jamat-e-Islami are pro-Pakistan and anti-India.
India’s refusal to toe the US line over the Ukraine issue has anguished the United States. Prime Minister Modi’s recent visit to Russia further added fuel to the fire. Some analysts link the recent terrorist upsurge in Kashmir to the green signal of the United States to ISI and Pakistan to teach India a lesson
It is alleged that India’s refusal to toe the US line over the Ukraine issue has anguished the United States. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Russia further added fuel to the fire. Some analysts do link the recent terrorist upsurge in Kashmir to the green signal of the United States to ISI and Pakistan to teach India a lesson.
Why was the CIA annoyed with Sheikh Hasina? It has been amply made clear in her defiant statement in a conference of the 14-party ruling alliance, as quoted above in India Today dated May 27, 2024. It is obvious that she had refused to toe the line of the ‘White Man’. This ‘white man’ was undoubtedly a US official, though she had not clarified it. But she paid the price for her arrogance shown to a superpower.
Another reason for the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina seems to be her cosying up to China. She was on a four-day visit to China in July 2024, but she returned after three days. Her early return is viewed as her failure to achieve the objective of her visit. But the official reason for early return was her daughter’s ailment. However, she met China’s President Xi Jinping and both announced to elevate China-Bangladesh relations to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership.
The strategic location of Bangladesh in the Bay of Bengal makes it a critical point of interest for the US and China. Political analysts believe that the US interest in ensuring ‘free and fair elections’ was part of its broader strategy to counter Chinese and Russian influence in the region
Strategic Location for USA
Why was the USA keen to have a pliant government in Bangladesh? The strategic location of Bangladesh in the Bay of Bengal makes it a critical point of interest for global powers like the US and China. Political analysts believe that the US interest in ensuring ‘free and fair elections’ was part of its broader strategy to counter Chinese and Russian influence in the region.
Why would the USA and the West create a Christian state in South Asia? It was a ‘strategic necessity’ to not only keep China under observation but also monitor Indian moves in times to come. This separate Christian nation would comprise the districts of the Sagaing Division and the Chin state of Myanmar, the Indian state of Mizoram along with the Kuki inhabited areas of Manipur and the Bandarban district and adjoining areas of Chittagong Division in Bangladesh. It is believed US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu visited Bangladesh on May 30, 2024. He is known for changing regimes in US areas of interest.
A narrative has been built in the Western media that tribals of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar were being persecuted by the Hindu Meiteis in Manipur, the Buddhist regime in Myanmar and Islamists in Bangladesh. The sole motive behind this was to justify their demand for Zalengam. It is to justify a Christian state. Now you know what was behind the Manipur problem and why the US and Western media were raking up the Manipur issue time and again, of course some Indian politicians have their axe to grind, for short-term political gains.
It is not only Manipur but the entire North East, which would become vulnerable to US manipulations, once it gets a sizeable foothold in the region. It would not only affect India’s strategic autonomy in the Bay of Bengal but its entire Eastern coastline with strategic assets such as the Missile Testing Range at Wheeler Island, Ship Building facility at Vizag, ISRO at Sriharikota and of course A & N islands group. Of course, don’t forget about the danger to the ‘Kaladan Project’, which aims at an alternative route through the Bay of Bengal North East.
What is more dangerous to India is an influx of refugees to India. This could be due to the persecution of those who had supported Sheikh Hasina or even those who did not appreciate the rise of Jamat-e-Islami radicals
Possibility of Refugee Influx to India
What is more dangerous to India is an influx of refugees to India. This could be due to the persecution of those who had supported Sheikh Hasina or even those who did not appreciate the rise of Jamat-e-Islami radicals. Already India has a serious problem with the arrival of Rohingya refugees. The worst affected states are West Bengal and North East states. They not only create social tension and crime but a threat to national security. The refugees are easy recruits for foreign intelligence agencies for money. India has to watch out and stop the refugee influx.
The fall of Sheikh Hasina is a big lesson for India, too. Keep your eyes and ears open. Controversial issues exist, they just need a spark. It is an era of wars of ‘destabilisation’, what is being dubbed as ‘War Within Nations’ (WWN) as against the earlier philosophy of ‘War Between Nations’ (WBN).
WWN seeks to exploit the internal vulnerabilities of a nation. It uses non-kinetic means to break up an adversary. It is called ‘Implosion’. There are many examples in the world’s recent history such as Libya, Iraq, Syria, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia and even the USSR. The emergence of WsMD and Standoff/Beyond Visual Range (BVR) weapon systems have necessitated the ‘Implosion’ strategy of war.
There is no doubt that there were internal weaknesses and vulnerabilities in India, too. Agents provocateurs are awaiting a green signal from their foreign masters. CASTE CENSUS and SC/ST DEPRIVAL will storm the nation if proper action is not taken to nip the evil in the bud. All other anti-Centre forces would rally around this CASTE CENSUS/DALIT DEPRIVAL ISSUE. Farmers’ agitation and anti-CAA protests like innocuous events can provide a spark to such an event. Hereafter, India needs to chart out its course carefully.
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
-An ex-NDA and Wellington Staff College graduate, Col Rajinder Singh is a renowned author and security analyst. He has authored four books, two individually and two in collaboration. His best-selling books are Kashmir – A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency. The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda
